根据高盛周三发布的分析报告，美国投资者持有的黄金ETF规模，仍比其2012年的峰值低6个基点—— 这种缺口自21世纪中期这类投资工具首次推出以来便一直存在。高盛分析师指出，这种差异源于一个基 本的数学现实：在过去十年中，投资组合总体的增长速度全面超过了金价上涨速度和交易量的扩张。 尽管黄金在2025年不断攀升刷新历史新高，并且今日触及4500美元大关，但美国机构和个人投资者对这 一贵金属的敞口仍保持着显著的冷淡态度。高盛分析师认为，这呈现出一种"重大的结构性机会"，可能 推动金价持续上涨。 配置不足的程度是惊人的。高盛的研究表明，截至去年第二季度，黄金ETF仅占美国私人金融投资组合 的区区17个基点，即0.17%。这在美国人持有的约112万亿美元股票和固定收益证券中，只占极其微小 的一部分。 来源：金十数据 机构的不情愿同样明显。根据高盛的数据，在管理资产超过1亿美元的主要美国机构中，只有不到一半 持有任何黄金ETF敞口。在那些持有的机构中，配置比例通常集中在10到50个基点之间。即使是经验丰 富的长期机构投资者，其对黄金的平均投资组合配置也仅为20个基点。 这种极低的配置与普遍的卖方情绪形成了显著的脱节。包 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic landscape is shifting from a dollar-centric system to a more diversified currency framework, influenced by changes in China's economic model and a slowdown in technological iteration, which is impacting global profit distribution and diminishing the dollar's credibility, thereby enhancing gold's safe-haven value [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift in Economic Models**: China's transition from a manufacturing-based economy to a consumption-driven model is reducing reliance on debt expansion, challenging the U.S. model that maintains dominance through trade deficits and capital surpluses [1][4][7]. - **U.S. Interest Rate Dilemma**: The U.S. faces a complex decision regarding interest rate cuts; lowering rates could lead to a stock market crash, particularly in tech sectors, while not cutting rates may necessitate increased fiscal stimulus, both scenarios potentially weakening the dollar [1][5][9]. - **Long-term Gold Investment Logic**: The long-term investment rationale for gold is closely tied to the pace of U.S. debt expansion. As the U.S. struggles to maintain its global dominance, gold's importance as a safe-haven asset is expected to rise [2][3][11]. - **Impact of Globalization Changes**: The evolving global landscape, particularly China's enhanced role in the supply chain and the failure of Moore's Law, is reshaping the profit distribution paradigm, leading to a reassessment of dollar credibility and impacting commodity prices, including gold [4][9]. - **Inflationary Pressures**: If the U.S. opts for rate cuts, it may revive global manufacturing but could also trigger inflation, complicating the economic landscape further [6][9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Volatility as an Investment Indicator**: A volatility index below 20 is considered a favorable buy signal for gold, indicating that market trading funds have been largely consumed, suggesting a potential price increase [2][12]. - **Performance of Gold Stocks**: Gold stocks have shown strong performance during periods of reduced volatility, with their profitability significantly improving, which could lead to higher valuations, similar to trends observed in the coal industry [2][13]. - **Future Gold Price Trends**: In the current uncertain macroeconomic environment, gold is expected to perform well due to its safe-haven characteristics. If the U.S. cuts rates, industrial metals and silver may become more attractive, while a failure to cut rates could lead to a recession, further strengthening gold's position [10][11].