投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 美联储内部分歧加剧，贵金属承压回落 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属有所承压，周线整体收跌。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美联储官员上 半周表态偏鹰，加上美联储10月会议纪要进一步暴露美联储内部对于12月降息的分歧日益 加剧，同时美国政府明确10月非农、CPI数据均不公布，这意味着美联储官员在年内最后 一次会议前可能将同时失去就业、通胀两项关键经济数据，不得不促使美联储谨慎控制降 息节奏。受此影响，美联储12月降息概率骤降，美股、比特币等资产全线下挫，流动性紧 缩下贵金属价格亦承压下挫。但随着恐慌指数回升，上周五晚间，美联储官员安抚市场， 称预计未来还会进一步降息，且有官员表态预计不久美联储将重新扩表，美联储降息预期 再度回升，流动性紧缩风险有所缓和，贵金属跌幅收窄。（2）俄罗斯央行开始抛售实物 黄金，一度对金价 ...

新华财经上海11月21日电 从此前的观望到如今看好中国资产，2025年可以被视为外资重估中国资产的 元年，这背后既有美元信用对美国市场的影响，也受到中国科技股显著的估值优势以及产业基本面进步 的影响。 近日，瑞士百达财富管理亚洲首席策略师兼研究主管陈东在接受新华财经记者专访时表示，在美元信用 被侵蚀的同时，美国国债与美国股市也将面临不同性质的影响。目前真正大规模、长期配置型的外资才 刚刚开始恢复增持中国资产，未来外资增配中国仍有很大空间，AI应用、创新药、金融等方向将存在 中长期机会。 美元信用基石松动 虽然美元体系并未出现系统性危机迹象，但其长期信用问题以及全球货币格局的深刻变化均影响着美元 的走势。 陈东认为，美元目前正面临着"长期、缓慢但真实"的下行压力。从美国国内看，美元主要面临的两大关 键压力包括美国内部政策不确定性急剧上升以及美国财政赤字高企的问题推动。 从全球格局看，美国国内政策的不确定性，也让国际社会怀疑美国是否还愿意承担维护全球金融体系稳 定的责任，进一步影响了美元的信用。 "黄金价格的持续上涨，也反映了市场对美元信用问题的担忧。"陈东表示，黄金在近几年持续上行且在 2025年涨势更为迅猛， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the expected fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate in 2025 and 2026, highlighting the central bank's effective liquidity management that helps mitigate risks [1] Group 1: 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The appreciation of the RMB in 2025 is driven by two main factors: cracks in USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing measures. However, the appreciation expectation is not straightforward, with significant volatility observed [2] - In April 2025, trade frictions led to a depreciation expectation exceeding 7.5, while the onset of the Fed's rate cut cycle in September brought the appreciation expectation closer to 7.0. This reflects investor uncertainty in a still fragile internal economic environment [2] - A key factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the reversal of foreign trade enterprises' willingness to settle in RMB. The weakening belief in a strong USD has led to a historic level of cross-border capital inflow, primarily driven by these enterprises [3] Group 2: Central Bank's Management and Policy - The central bank's management of exchange rate controls is described as "brilliant," effectively balancing the optimism of currency holders and the hesitance of currency exchangers. This includes lowering swap market premiums to manage foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the central parity rate [4] - The central bank aims to align domestic and foreign pricing expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" where both domestic and foreign asset pricing converge towards the central bank's expectations [4] Group 3: 2026 RMB Exchange Rate Expectations - The article raises the question of whether global easing will continue into 2026, noting a significant "K-shaped" economic divergence in the U.S. This divergence affects high-net-worth individuals and new borrowers differently, impacting credit expansion and overall economic conditions [5] - The central bank's willingness to allow the RMB to break the 7.0 mark is questioned, with indications that it is managing the pace of appreciation through historical low swap premiums. The central bank's focus appears to be on fundamental factors rather than credit-driven factors [6] - The future decoupling of the RMB exchange rate from the USD index is anticipated, with both fundamental and policy support for the RMB to break the 7.0 level. However, the article emphasizes that fundamental changes will be the core variable supporting long-term RMB strength [6]

曾几何时，美国总统的宝座被无数人视为权力巅峰。可谁能想到，如今的特朗普却不再把这把交椅看得 那么"香"。对他来说，权力的终极舞台似乎早已不是白宫的椭圆形办公室，而是那栋藏在华盛顿特区， 外表平淡无奇、实则操控着全球金融脉搏的美联储总部。他的话语和动作，将世界最大经济体推到了又 一个不可预测的十字路口——美元信用，已经悬在了风雨飘摇的边缘。 一时间，"特朗普批评鲍威尔"成了新闻头条。他不是只图嘴上痛快，而是真的想动真格。2019年美联储 加息四次，资本市场一片哀嚎，特朗普连发多条推文指责鲍威尔"拖后腿"、"比我国更像敌人"。到2020 年大选临近，特朗普急需一个经济亮点，但美联储就是不给他"开绿灯"。这种公开较劲，已经超越了正 常的政策分歧，俨然变成了一场围绕央行独立性的拉锯。 美联储：藏在权力背后的"隐形王座" 提起美联储，可能很多普通人只记得那张印着总统头像的美元纸币，却不知道这座被称为"全球经济心 脏"的机构究竟有多大能量。其实，它从来不是普通意义上的"银行"。自1913年成立以来，美联储就一 直被称为"世界上第二有权势的机构"——无论是美国3亿多人的饭碗、还是全球70万亿美元的金融资 产，都在它的一念之 ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 918.52 | -10.94 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11699 | -234 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 90872 | -10851 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 322401 | 10886 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107875 | -473 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 93067 | -12386 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 0 | -90426 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 0 | -569355 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 917.3 | -14.15 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 11787 | -190 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -1.22 | -3.21 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间11月18日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.20%报4045.10美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌1.25%报50.05美元/盎司。 有分析人士称，贵金属价格可能继续受到美元走强和美联储政策预期的压制，但中长期而言，全球央行购金趋势未 变，以及受到美国债务问题对美元信用的潜在冲击，仍为贵金属提供支撑。 《金融时报》发文称，长久以来，黄金被视为无息资产，其价格与衡量持有机会成本的美元实际利率呈现出明显的负 相关关系。然而，自2022年以来，这一锚定机制已出现失效。驱动金价屡创新高的，不再是单纯的利率预期，而是全 球央行，尤其是新兴市场国家央行，持续且规模空前的购金潮。 对于黄金而言，由于矿产资源稀缺性以及较长的勘探和开采周期共同形成的天然供给约束。全球黄金年产量自2018年 以来持续徘徊于3400-3700吨区间，供给相对刚性。因此，需求的边际变化已成为重塑黄金定价逻辑的核心驱动力。 2022年以来，全球央行购金规模占黄金总需求比重大幅上升，2022年至2024年全球央行平均年净购金量达1073吨，占 全球黄金需求的23%。高盛也表示，各国央行11月可能大量 ...

首先来看好消息。 美国政府关门的问题终于迎来暂时的解决方案。 11月10日，美国接连传来两则消息，一好一坏，迅速成为全球金融市场的关注焦点。 随着消息的发酵，黄金价格出现大幅上涨，人民币也快速升值。 这两则消息不仅牵动了投资者的神经，还透露出美国经济可能面临的深层次问题。 11月10日晚间，ABC News报道称，美国参议院将表决通过一项"临时拨款法案"，结束长达40天的政府关门。 这项法案将暂时延长政府运转资金至明年1月31日，并确保一些关键项目如食品券（SNAP）和退伍军人事务部获得全年拨款。 这一举措避免了长期关门对社会和经济的进一步冲击。 美国政府关门期间，经济损失已经高达超百亿美元，影响了企业运营和民众生活。 虽然临时法案的通过带来了短期利好，但两党之间的矛盾依然尖锐，未来三个月后是否能达成长期协议仍是未知数。 这种不确定性可能会持续影响美国经济和金融市场的稳定。 然而，就在市场对政府开门的消息感到乐观时，坏消息接踵而至。 旧金山联储主席戴利在美联储官网发布了一篇文章，对美国经济发出强烈预警。 文章指出，美国经济可能重回1970年代滞胀时期的老路，而非1990年代的繁荣路径。 这一观点迅速引发市场担 ...

Industry Overview - Taiwan's NOR Flash storage manufacturer Winbond indicated a 50% increase in NOR Flash usage due to the rising demand from AI servers transitioning from HBM3E to HBM4, with plans to raise NOR Flash prices by up to 30% in Q1 next year [3] - The AIOT sector is experiencing rapid growth, as evidenced by the performance of major domestic listed companies, indicating a clear upward trend in storage demand over the next two years [3] Advanced Manufacturing - CATL has made significant supply chain moves, including a framework agreement with Jiangyuan Technology to secure a minimum capacity of 626,000 tons and strategic investments in Tianhua New Energy to ensure lithium salt supply [7] - In October, battery production increased by 22.4% month-on-month, with utilization rates nearing 90%. CATL reported a saturated energy storage capacity with a production of approximately 180 GWh in Q3, maintaining a utilization rate above 90% [7] - The asset expenditure growth for CATL and other companies in the sector indicates a strong commitment to expanding capacity and innovation, suggesting a new cycle of prosperity for lithium batteries and related industries [7] Consumer Sector - On Running reported a Q2 net sales of 749.2 million Swiss francs, a 32% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 61.5% [9] - The company adjusted its full-year sales guidance to 2.91 billion Swiss francs, expecting a growth of at least 31% year-on-year [9] - Brooks, a professional running brand, achieved a 17% sales growth in Q3, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, supported by strong overseas market expansion [9] Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are expected to continue their upward trend, with silver showing stronger rebounds than gold due to easing market liquidity and a decline in the US dollar index [11][12] - The increasing proportion of gold reserves held by global central banks and the net inflow of funds into physical gold ETFs reflect growing concerns over dollar credit and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - Silver's recent strong performance is attributed to its relatively low gold-silver ratio and low COMEX exchange inventories, suggesting continued strength in the silver market [12]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing concern over the U.S. national debt, which officially stands at approximately $38 trillion, while the present value of unfunded obligations, including Social Security and Medicare, is estimated to be around $230 trillion, indicating a significant gap between reported debt and actual financial commitments [3][7][25]. Group 1: Debt and Financial Obligations - Officially reported U.S. debt is approximately $38 trillion, primarily consisting of national debt and short-term borrowings [3]. - Analysts are comparing the present value of future commitments, such as Social Security and Medicare, which are not included in current liabilities, revealing a deeper financial issue [3][5]. - The rising interest expense, which has increased from 10% to 25% of income, is attributed to higher interest rates, impacting the ability to manage debt sustainably [11]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - There is a political debate regarding proposals to raise the retirement age, reflecting the tension between fiscal responsibility and electoral considerations [9]. - Local governments are feeling the strain of reduced federal transfers, leading to potential cuts in welfare programs, which directly affect community services [9][17]. - International investors are diversifying away from U.S. debt, indicating a loss of confidence in the dollar, with some shifting towards gold and other currencies [11][21]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - The Social Security fund is projected to deplete by 2034, highlighting the urgency for reform amidst political resistance [25]. - The article suggests that if major countries cease large-scale purchases of U.S. debt, the pressure on the dollar could increase, complicating the financial landscape [21]. - The ongoing reliance on temporary measures to raise the debt ceiling is seen as a short-term fix that does not address the underlying structural deficits [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges facing the US dollar's credibility in the long term, highlighting a potential restructuring of the international monetary system if allied nations collectively lose confidence in the dollar [1][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - In September, the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points, which is not directly indicative of a weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - The Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is under pressure, particularly with deteriorating employment data and inflation concerns stemming from Trump's tariffs [3][4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates was made despite external pressures for larger cuts, indicating a commitment to its established policy path [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Dollar - The Federal Reserve is facing a triple dilemma: policy indecision, confusion in monetary policy expectations, and threats to its independence [1][5]. - Trump's interventions in Fed policy and potential changes in leadership could further undermine the Fed's independence and the dollar's credibility [5][6]. - The ongoing trade policies and tariffs under Trump's administration are eroding the dollar's international standing and could lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary order [6][7]. Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The article notes a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting a shift towards a multipolar international monetary system, with emerging markets increasing their gold reserves [6][12]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global reserves does not automatically benefit other non-dollar currencies, as they face their own structural challenges [12][13]. - The potential for a "de-dollarization" trend is highlighted, particularly if allied nations lose faith in the dollar due to ongoing US economic policies [6][7]. Group 4: Implications for China - China is encouraged to recognize the opportunity presented by the US's declining global economic leadership and to enhance the international status of the renminbi [13][14]. - Strengthening the domestic economy and improving the financial market system are crucial for increasing the attractiveness of renminbi assets [14][15]. - Historical lessons from the euro and yen's internationalization processes emphasize the importance of economic strength and the establishment of a robust currency settlement function [16][17].