黄金方面： 美国政府停摆问题仍在持续中，参议院第七次否决拨款法案，特朗普威胁砍掉民主党项目，共和党领袖否认要动"大招"。另外 美国驻北约大使近期表示，美国可能将部分军事能力转移至乌克兰。虽然加沙停火协议达成，但是俄乌冲突仍然存在不确定 性，甚至有升级的风险以及美国政府停摆将推升市场避险情绪。 我国9月末央行黄金储备报7406万盎司（约2303.523吨），环比增长4万盎司，为连续11个月增持黄金。世界黄金协会数据显示， 今年前三季度黄金ETF流入量达到640亿美元，其中第三季度当季流入260亿美元，9月份创造了173亿美元当月流入的记录。 近期日本政府高层变动在近期导致日元进一步贬值，进而在一定程度上推升美元指数。不过日本自民党总裁高市早苗表示，无 意引发日元过度贬值，美元短期进一步上行空间恐将较为有限。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，短期美联储内部对后续降息的分歧恐令金价迎来修正。不过在美元信用大打折扣的 背景下，黄金价格趋势性看涨不变。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情自高回落且收阴线，形成看空吞没形态，短期警惕金价进一步回落风险，日内关注上方 4005美元一线压力情况。 原油方面： 近期原油市场 ...

贵金属日报 2025-10-09 贵金属 【行情资讯】 早盘，COMEX 金跌 0.80 %，报 4037.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 1.57 %，报 48.23 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 98.83 ； 国庆期间，海外发生多个风险事件，美元信用受到进一步冲击，金银价格呈现趋势性上涨格局。 受制于预算原因，美国政府当前面临"关门"危机，原定于上周五公布的非农就业及失业率数 据并未按时发布。这一现象进一步对美元信用形成冲击，是黄金价格出现突破上涨的主要原因。 今日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要则显示，联储官员对于后续利率路径的分歧加大，但纪要显示 "大部分官员认为在今年实行进一步的宽松政策是合适的"，对于劳动力市场，许多联储官员 认为当前的美国劳动力市场不会出现持续弱化。但当前非农和失业率数据缺失的情况下，劳动 力市场走弱的现状难以证伪，市场仍旧预计联储后续进一步的降息操作。 【策略观点】 在美元信用显著受挫，联储降息预期维持的背景下，对于贵金属仍应当维持中期的多头思路， 当前外盘黄金价格已突破 4000 美元/盎司一线，银价也达到 49 美元/盎司的历史新高附近， ...

Core Viewpoint - The seminar focused on the fluctuations of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate and the expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies, highlighting the interplay between U.S.-China economic relations and currency movements [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since April 2022, the RMB has been under pressure, depreciating from around 6.3 to below 7.3, with a stabilization around 7.3 in the second half of 2023 [4][5]. - The depreciation of the RMB post-2022 is attributed to the divergence in economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the U.S., leading to a negative interest rate differential [5][6]. - The RMB's exchange rate is not significantly deviating from its equilibrium level, with both upward and downward factors present, suggesting a need for a risk-neutral market approach [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB's Strength - The RMB's recent strength against the dollar is driven by the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, improvements in the Chinese economy, and a thawing in U.S.-China trade relations [3][9]. - Historical context shows that during Trump's first term, tariffs led to a depreciation of the RMB, but the current environment suggests a potential for appreciation due to various factors, including market sentiment and economic recovery [10][12]. - The RMB's appreciation is also supported by the Chinese government's proactive measures to mitigate external shocks and improve economic conditions [19][20]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue with two more rate cuts in 2025, with the nature of these cuts being crucial for the dollar's performance [22][24]. - The Fed's independence is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which could impact its policy decisions and market perceptions [25][27]. - The Fed's dual mandate of managing employment and inflation is becoming increasingly complex, with rising inflation and a weakening labor market posing challenges [26][28]. Group 4: Implications for the Dollar and Global Markets - The weakening of the dollar is influenced by Trump's policies, which disrupt traditional economic cycles and could lead to a rebalancing of global assets favoring non-U.S. assets [32][33]. - The current environment suggests that the RMB may benefit from a weaker dollar, especially if U.S.-China trade relations stabilize and economic conditions improve in China [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing narrative surrounding U.S. Treasury bonds in 2025 reflects a complex interplay of global trust and the credibility of the U.S. dollar, with China being a focal point of discussion [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury bond prices remain strong and liquid, countering the narrative that selling U.S. debt equates to a financial catastrophe [1]. - The U.S. Treasury's data release in March sparked speculation about China's potential liquidation of U.S. bonds, igniting discussions on social media [1][2]. - The majority of U.S. Treasury bonds are held by domestic entities, including households, pension funds, and insurance companies, rather than foreign investors [2][3]. Group 2: China's Role in the U.S. Treasury Market - China ranks third globally in U.S. Treasury holdings, below Japan and the UK, holding less than one-tenth of the total [3]. - The perception of China as a "disruptor" in the U.S. Treasury market is misleading; it is more accurately described as a significant "player" rather than a dominant force [3][5]. - Speculation about China "dumping" U.S. bonds often overlooks the market's inherent liquidity and depth, which would require substantial domestic investor panic to trigger a significant downturn [3][5]. Group 3: Middle Eastern Investment Behavior - Middle Eastern investors prefer equity, real estate, and technology ventures over U.S. Treasury bonds due to religious prohibitions against fixed interest products [4]. - The notion that Middle Eastern funds are abandoning U.S. bonds is inaccurate; their investment strategies are guided by specific financial principles rather than market trends [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Reactions - The fear surrounding U.S. Treasury bonds is not easily swayed by any single investor's actions, including potential large-scale sell-offs by China [5]. - The complexity of global capital flows and the underlying trust in the U.S. dollar play a crucial role in the stability of the U.S. Treasury market [5]. - The narrative of a potential "financial bomb" due to China's actions is oversimplified; a deeper understanding of the market's structure and the U.S.'s own financial mechanisms is necessary [5].

首当其冲的，是华盛顿的政治僵局。特朗普政府与国会两党领袖的谈判破裂，使得联邦政府资金告罄的 警钟即将敲响。这场政治风暴，宛如一根导火索，瞬间点燃了资本市场的避险情绪，将黄金推向了风口 浪尖。 与此同时，在伦敦金银市场，一幕罕见的景象正在上演：为了填补COMEX期货市场的实物缺口，交易 员们正争分夺秒地将金条从英格兰银行的金库运往纽约。这场跨越大西洋的黄金搬运潮，不仅暴露了市 场对美元信用的深层焦虑，也揭示了黄金市场供需矛盾的冰山一角。 推动金价上涨的，是三重交织的力量。 首先，是美联储降息预期的强劲引擎。利率期货市场显示，市场对10月降息的预期已飙升至90%，12月 再次降息的概率也高达65%。降息不仅直接降低了持有无息资产黄金的机会成本，更重要的是，它引发 了市场对美元信用的重新定价，为金价的腾飞奠定了基础。 其次，是地缘政治风险的推波助澜。特朗普政府威胁对加拿大、墨西哥征收25%关税，与2018年边境墙 争端导致的政府停摆历史遥相呼应。更令人不安的是，白宫要求联邦机构为"不符合总统优先事项"的项 目制定永久裁员计划，而非传统的临时停薪留职。这种政策的不确定性，使得黄金的避险需求从短期对 冲转向长期配置，进 ...

| 1. 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 2. 避险属性演变逻辑 . | | 3. 货币属性演变逻辑 . | | 4. 商品属性演变逻辑 . | | 5. 技术分析 . | | 6.从多空博弈的角度看未来行情发展的方向 23 | | 7. 国内贵金属产业链概况 | | 8. 全球贵金属产业链概况 | | き表声明 . | 1.行情回顾 图 1：沪金主连本轮牛市关键节点 2025 年以来，贵金属继续上攻但金银出现分化。黄金多次连创历史新高，伦敦金最高涨至 3057.14 美元/盎司，Comex 金主力最高涨至 3065.2 美元/盎司，国内沪金主力最高涨至 711.24 元/克。白银在 黄金新高后，跟涨缓慢，多次承压回落。伦敦银最高涨至 34.224 美元/盎司，距离 2024 年 10 月创出 的 34.863 美元/盎司仍有空间，距离 2011 年 4 月的历史最高 49.840 美元/盎司仍然云泥之别，国内 沪银主力最高涨至 8444 元/千克，距离 2024 年 5 月的 8733 元/千克仍有距离。 开年以来贵金属主要逻辑在于：一是避险情绪升温。全球经济政治体系重构推动货币体系重构。 春节期间， ...

最近看特朗普又搞出不少动作，一会儿重启关税，一会儿逼着美联储降息，还琢磨着金卡计划，表面看 着在乱来，其实就是美国财政快扛不住了，他这都是在填坑。 你们看组数据就懂了，2016年（特朗普还没上第一任期的时候），美国国债利息才花了4326亿美元，到 2025年8月，这数直接飙到快1.13万亿了，几年时间多掏了7000亿！ 政府也想过办法，靠加关税能多收2000亿，说优化部门开支能省2000亿，结果开支节约实际只落地1000 亿，最后还是差4000亿的缺口，你说急不急？ 那特朗普能咋办？缩减债务不现实，福利、国防都是刚需，《大而美法案》还得接着花钱，传统税收改 革又慢又容易得罪人，只能靠歪招应急，逼美联储降息少付利息，搞金卡、涨H1B签证费、再加关税多 搞钱，本质就是拆东墙补西墙。 可这些招真管用吗？先说说降息，特朗普觉得降利率能省利息，可实际测算下来，根本不够看， 按市 场预期，美联储到2026年底累计降息125个基点（含9月那次），也就省412亿；就算激进点，降息200个 基点，全期限利率跟着降，也才省1931亿，离4000亿的缺口差远了，这不就是杯水车薪嘛。 更麻烦的是，逼美联储降息还埋着雷。美联储本来该管 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of recent policies by the Trump administration is to alleviate U.S. fiscal pressure, as evidenced by the significant increase in interest payments on national debt from $432.6 billion in FY2016 to nearly $1.13 trillion by FY2025 [1][5][9] - The administration's push for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is aimed at reducing debt servicing costs, which have increased by approximately $700 billion since Trump's first term [1][7][9] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts potentially saving around $412 billion to $1.93 trillion in interest payments, this is insufficient to cover the existing fiscal gap of about $400 billion, prompting the administration to seek additional revenue sources [2][15][19] Group 2 - The Trump administration's policies, including the "Gold Card" initiative and increased H1B fees, are part of a broader strategy to generate revenue and address the fiscal shortfall [15][17] - The relationship between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve has deteriorated, with the administration advocating for monetary policy to support fiscal needs, which may undermine the Fed's independence and affect the credibility of the U.S. dollar [2][17][19] - As a result of these policies, capital is expected to flow out of the U.S., benefiting non-U.S. assets such as precious metals and Chinese assets, as the dollar's creditworthiness is likely to weaken [3][19][21] Group 3 - The anticipated decline in interest rates and the weakening of the dollar may lead to increased investment in non-U.S. markets, particularly in Chinese assets, as the yuan is expected to appreciate due to narrowing interest rate differentials [3][19][21] - The Chinese capital market is expected to benefit from these trends, with a solid long-term upward trajectory supported by favorable domestic policies and the ongoing global shift towards non-U.S. assets [21][22][23] - The current geopolitical landscape and the strategic positioning of China in global markets are likely to enhance investor confidence and risk appetite, further supporting the A-share market [21][22][23]

前言 特朗普政府为缓解美国36万亿美元的国债压力，他开始将个人商业时期的"破产重组"思路融入国策，以 降息打开债务续命窗口， 但明眼人都能看出来，这是美国借对等关税构建掠夺性贸易格局，吸食全球的血供养美国，这种事他也 敢想出来。 而这场看似周密的豪赌正遭遇盟友反噬，欧盟、日本、韩国对美投资承诺相继缩水，昔日"买单者"更重 协议可行性与互利本质。 美国现在内部分裂加剧，外部盟友背刺，如今美联储降息化债，究竟能成功吗？ 翻版"破产重组" 美联储九月降息消息落地时，市场多将其解读为常规货币宽松，实则是特朗普将三十余年前的个人生意 经搬入白宫。 1990年经济衰退期间，他旗下泰姬陵赌场背负30亿美元高利贷濒临破产，最终靠申请破产保护逼迫债主 降息重组才得以存续。 如今面对36万亿美元国债压力，他沿用的仍是旧有思路：先制造危机，再倒逼政策让步。 但美联储并非当年的赌场债主，作为美国货币体系的"压舱石"，其独立性是美元信用的核心根基。 历史上尼克松施压美联储降息引发十年滞胀的教训，至今仍是业内警钟。 最初鲍威尔态度强硬，以"通胀居高不下"回绝所有降息诉求。 此时特朗普的"非常规操作"随之展开：先公开嘲讽鲍威尔办公室奢华、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies of the Trump administration, including tariff wars, interest rate cuts, and the "Gold Card" plan, are primarily aimed at alleviating U.S. fiscal pressure, despite appearing disorganized on the surface [1][6][19]. Group 1: Fiscal Pressure and Policy Responses - The U.S. government's interest expenditure has increased significantly, from $432.6 billion in FY 2016 to nearly $1.13 trillion by FY 2025, indicating a rise of approximately $700 billion [1][8]. - The Trump administration has attempted to address this fiscal gap through various measures, including tariffs, which are expected to generate around $200 billion in additional revenue, and other cost-saving initiatives [9][19]. - Despite these efforts, there remains a funding gap of about $400 billion that needs to be addressed [9][19]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are projected to save the government between $41.2 billion and $193.1 billion in interest expenditures, depending on the extent of the cuts [16][17]. - Even with aggressive rate cuts, the savings are insufficient to cover the existing fiscal shortfall, prompting the Trump administration to seek additional revenue sources [19][21]. Group 3: Currency and Asset Implications - The push for lower interest rates and the potential weakening of the U.S. dollar may lead to capital flowing out of the U.S., benefiting non-U.S. assets such as precious metals and cryptocurrencies [3][21]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials, could attract foreign investment into Chinese markets, following a three-step process starting with Hong Kong stocks [3][23]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment suggests that A-shares in China are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by China's competitive advantages and favorable capital market policies [25][26]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the strategic shift in China's approach to international relations may enhance investor confidence and risk appetite, further supporting the Chinese capital market [26][27].