Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has led to the highest U.S. import tax rate in nearly 100 years, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the global trade collapse seen during the Great Depression[2] - The effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is projected to reach 25%, exceeding levels during the Great Depression[4] - The impact of tariffs on the real economy is likely to be one-time, with countries able to counteract demand shocks through monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies[2][13] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Market Outlook - Unlike the Great Depression, the current global economic environment is stable, with no signs of widespread recession among major economies[6][10] - The recent tariff measures are expected to lead to a restructuring of the global trade system rather than its collapse, as major economies maintain commitments to free trade[10][11] - Following the panic sell-off triggered by the tariffs, there is potential for a rebound in China's equity markets[13] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - Following the announcement of tariffs, global equity markets experienced significant declines, with the Wind All A Index dropping 9.3% in a single day[10] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with March non-farm payrolls increasing by 228,000, exceeding market expectations[20] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased, with projections now suggesting four rate cuts in 2025, totaling 100 basis points[24]