据路透社报道，特朗普近期公开呼吁中国增加美国大豆进口，称此举 "对双方都有利"，未获中方回应。 中国随即对美国大豆加征 25% 关税。这一反制措施直接抬高了美国大豆进入中国市场的成本，削弱其价格竞争力。美国大豆对华出口量应声 下滑。贸易战后首年，中国从美国进口大豆降至 1664 万吨，同比降幅超 50%。同期，从巴西进口大豆增至 7400 万吨，占中国进口总量的 65%。全球大豆贸易流向发生显著调整。美国大豆产业陷入困境。2023 年，美国大豆库存达 15 亿蒲式耳，创历史新高。芝加哥商品交易所大 豆期货价格较 2018 年下跌 28%。中西部农场主被迫将滞销大豆囤积在仓库，部分甚至直接烂在田间。 美国贸易政策的短视性加剧了自身困境。加征关税看似保护本土产业，实则切断了农产品的重要出口通道。政府推出的农业补贴计划，三年间 累计支出 300 亿美元，仍难弥补市场流失带来的损失。中国作为全球最大大豆消费国，年需求量超 1 亿吨。这一市场体量，是美国大豆产业发 展的重要支撑。失去中国市场份额后，美国大豆出口总额年均减少 120 亿美元。 特朗普在公开场合多次表示，愿与中国协商降低大豆关税，承诺 "提供更优惠的出口条 ...

该文叫做"How to Make Trade Work for Workers"（如何让贸易有利于美国劳动者），这篇文章发表于2020年6月，发布在《外交事务》杂志上， 在网上也有。 美国精英层有一篇文章，我一直觉得很经典，揭示了美国精英层对贸易战的想法的思想根源。 The Case for the Trump Administration's Approach to Trade 这篇文章的内容我觉得非常有启发性，作者是著名的罗伯特·莱特希泽。 国内的人应该对他的名字不陌生，他是特朗普第一任期2017年5月～2021年1月期间的贸易代表（美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）代表），主导和 中国打贸易战，所以当时在中国的新闻中也经常能看到他的名字。 而且他还在美国罗纳德·里根（Ronald Reagan）政府（1983年4月～1985年8月）时期担任美国副贸易代表。 他在里根政府任职期间，处理了二十多项贸易协议，并因和日本在钢铁和汽车业的贸易战而成名，此战使得日本自愿限制对美国出口，汽车企 业被迫在美国设厂，从而创造了大量的就业机会。 《洛杉矶时报》的一篇报道说： then a top negotiator unde ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between the United States and Canada are easing, with Canada announcing the cancellation of several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian products [1][2]. Group 1: Canada-U.S. Trade Relations - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the cancellation of multiple retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, effective September 1, while maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum temporarily [2][3]. - Carney emphasized that the measures are a response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian goods and highlighted the restoration of free trade for the majority of goods between the two countries [3][4]. - The average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods is approximately 5.6%, which is relatively low compared to other trading partners [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Investigations - President Trump announced a significant tariff investigation on imported furniture, stating that the investigation will be completed within 50 days, with unspecified tariffs to be applied to furniture from other countries [6][7]. - This investigation aims to revitalize the U.S. domestic furniture manufacturing industry, which has seen price increases due to previous tariff hikes on major furniture importing countries, including Vietnam [7][8]. - The consumer price index (CPI) for furniture and bedding has shown significant price increases, with June and July seeing rises of 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, following a period of deflation [7].

Core Points - Canada has decided to cancel several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods effective September 1, while temporarily maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1] - The decision is a response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian goods, with Canada aiming to strengthen trade and security relations with the U.S. [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney emphasized that the U.S. has indicated it will not impose tariffs on Canadian goods that fall under the USMCA, marking a positive development [1] Group 1 - The Canadian government will align with the U.S. by removing all retaliatory tariffs on goods covered by the USMCA [1] - Carney stated that the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods is approximately 5.6% [1] - Carney compared the current situation to a hockey game, suggesting a more cautious strategy rather than an aggressive stance [1] Group 2 - A White House official welcomed Canada's decision, indicating it was overdue and expressing a desire to continue discussions on trade and national security [1] - Earlier in the month, Carney hinted at the possibility of canceling some retaliatory tariffs to help Canadian industries amid the tariff conflict with the U.S. [2] - Carney's approach has shifted from a more aggressive stance during the election campaign to a more moderate position, including the cancellation of the digital services tax proposal [2]

首先，要对标高水平经贸规则，使RCEP从传统的"关税减免器"转变为"深度开放"的平台和载体，促进 区域要素更高效流通，推动区域产业链、供应链、价值链更好衔接与融合。 其次，要推动RCEP成为区域深度融合平台。域内国家应创造条件加快人员跨境自由流动。对医疗、教 育、文旅等领域人才，可率先实现资格互认，适度延长签证时效，推动"人随服务流动"。同时，应在金 融市场融合中强化本币使用，完善以清迈倡议为重点的区域金融安全网。 再次，要使RCEP具有共同约束力。从实施情况看，由于争端解决机制未实质性运行，RCEP的约束力 受到影响。RCEP2.0需要推进更加全面的机制建设，建立一整套实施评估、监测、协调、升级的制度安 排，使RCEP在机制化的约束与保障下释放更多红利。 最后，要推动RCEP实现扩员和跨区域。例如，尽快推动中国香港加入RCEP，推动智利、斯里兰卡等 经济体加入RCEP，推动RCEP与海合会对接等。在这一过程中，应成立共同协商、尊重各方的高层次 协调机构，坚持东盟中心并使得东盟国家从中获益，并充分发挥中日韩等各方的作用。其中，中日韩尽 快签署自贸协定将为打造区域大市场、推动RCEP从1.0向2.0的升级发挥引 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy signifies a fundamental restructuring of global power dynamics, capital flow logic, and trade philosophy, transitioning the U.S. from a proponent of free trade to a gatekeeper of market access through high tariffs [2][17]. Trade Policy Shift - The U.S. trade policy has shifted from "free trade" to "access trade," where market entry requires high fees, redefining trade relationships as a "pay-to-enter" mechanism [2][4]. - The "America First" and "fair trade" paradox highlights the contradiction in Trump's protectionist approach aimed at achieving "fair trade" while claiming to rectify perceived unfair treatment in globalization [3][9]. Unilateralism vs. Multilateralism - Trump's skepticism towards multilateral trade systems like the WTO has driven the shift to "access trade," advocating for bilateral negotiations to maximize unilateral benefits [3][6]. - The strategy employs economic pressure to force compliance from trade partners, effectively turning trade negotiations into a form of economic coercion [6][9]. Tariff Mechanism - The "reciprocal tariff" policy has evolved from punitive tariffs targeting specific economies to a universal market access mechanism, with an average tariff rate rising to 15.2%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1934 [4][5]. - Tariffs are now standardized and categorized based on trade deficits and geopolitical stances, with countries facing differentiated rates [5][6]. Geopolitical Implications - Tariffs are increasingly used as tools for geopolitical leverage, with the U.S. applying pressure on countries like India and Canada to align with its strategic interests [6][9]. - The policy has prompted multinational corporations to reassess their global supply chains, leading to a "re-anchoring" of production closer to the U.S. or in low-tariff regions [7][9]. Dollar Dominance and Economic Coercion - The "access trade" strategy leverages the U.S. market and dollar dominance, transforming trade negotiations into a form of economic extortion, where countries must accumulate dollar reserves to pay tariffs [8][9]. - This approach effectively upgrades the concept of "seigniorage" into a "storage tax," embedding the U.S. fee-collecting power into global capital flows [8][9]. Global Trade Dynamics - The "reciprocal tariff" policy is reshaping global trade dynamics, with countries either accelerating their integration into the U.S. market or diversifying away from it, leading to a potential "de-Americanization" of trade [13][14]. - The policy has resulted in a significant decline in U.S. exports to China, while trade with other regions like ASEAN and the EU has seen growth, indicating a shift towards a more diversified trade network [13][14]. Long-term Economic Consequences - The long-term economic costs of the "reciprocal tariff" policy include slowed global growth and increased inflationary pressures, with the IMF predicting a global growth rate of 3% for 2025, down from earlier forecasts [11][12]. - The policy's impact on consumer prices is significant, with average effective tariff rates reaching 18.3%, leading to increased costs for American households [12][13]. Domestic Political Landscape - The "reciprocal tariff" policy creates a conflict between short-term political gains and long-term economic risks, as it may win support from manufacturing voters while imposing costs on consumers and small businesses [16][17]. - The protectionist measures may ultimately lead to economic imbalances, as the burden of increased costs is disproportionately felt by lower-income households [16][17].

8月12日，第十五届马中企业家大会举行了"贸易融通与企业出海"论坛。 张秀云 摄 8月12日，第十五届马中企业家大会举行了"贸易融通与企业出海"论坛。在共建"一带一路"倡议和《区 域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）推动下，该论坛将激活中马产业链协同发展，推动两国相互协助 推动数字经济与智能制造发展。 三审 岳振 星青年国际集团董事长、吉隆坡科技大学董事局主席陈孝云表示，贵州"多彩"与马来西亚"多元"的相 遇，是中马两国对教育创新的执着。当前，全球产业链深度调整，东盟市场活力迸发，中国企业"走出 去"与区域人才需求之间的匹配，正成为影响双边合作质效的核心命题。 陈孝云说，随着全球化进程的加快，职业教育的国际化成为推动各国经济发展的关键因素，通过职业教 育的国际合作，不仅能够促进技术技能人才的培养，还能增强国家间的文化交流与理解，职业教育的国 际化有助于满足全球市场对高素质技术技能人才的需求，推动全球经济的可持续发展。 "发挥高校优势，为推动贸易融通与企业出海。"贵阳学院党委书记黄营表示，将持续深入推进与马来西 亚等东盟国家的教育合作交流，让更多的马来西亚朋友了解贵州的多彩文化和发展成就，为贸易融通和 企业出海 ...

Group 1 - Only 33% of surveyed companies believe the current Japanese economy is in an expansion phase, a significant drop from 71% in January [1] - 11% of companies perceive the current economic trend as "slow recession," indicating a spreading trend of economic slowdown [1] - 68% of surveyed companies express concern about the impact of U.S. tariff measures on their performance [1] Group 2 - The recent trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. will reduce tariffs on automobiles and "reciprocal tariffs" to 15%, in exchange for Japan's investment of $550 billion in the U.S. [2] - 53% of surveyed companies plan to raise product and service prices within a year due to long-term yen depreciation and rising labor costs [2] - In July, Japan recorded a new high of 961 corporate bankruptcies, with a significant increase in the number of bankruptcies in regions like Kanto and Hokuriku compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - In the Kyushu and Okinawa regions, 102 companies went bankrupt in July, a 12% increase from the previous year, marking the highest number since June 2009 [3] - The total liabilities of bankrupt companies in Kyushu and Okinawa increased by 42.7% compared to the previous year [3] - Analysts predict that the number of corporate bankruptcies will gradually increase, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises, due to the impact of U.S. high tariff policies [3]

Group 1 - China's role in global affairs is increasingly prominent, as it strives to provide more high-quality international public goods [1] - The Chinese economy is projected to exceed 130 trillion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate maintained at 5%, indicating steady progress in high-quality development [1] - In the first half of this year, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year, with exports surging by 75.2%, solidifying its position as the global leader in this sector [1] Group 2 - International organizations, including the IMF and Morgan Stanley, have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, with many multinational companies continuing to increase their investments in China [2] - China is recognized as one of the countries investing the most in future industries, including electric vehicles, battery technology, solar panels, wind turbines, and smart robotics [2] - China is actively deepening bilateral and regional economic cooperation, having signed 23 free trade agreements with 30 countries and regions, and providing zero-tariff treatment on 100% of products to all least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China [2] Group 3 - The Belt and Road Initiative is seen as a means to help global southern countries achieve modernization and improve infrastructure, providing tangible development opportunities [2] - The international community faces numerous common challenges, necessitating enhanced understanding, trust, and cooperation among countries [2] - Asian countries, represented by China and ASEAN nations, can strengthen dialogue and promote regional multilateral cooperation through platforms like the United Nations and G20 [2]

Group 1 - Approximately one-third of large Japanese companies expect the Japanese economy to continue growing, a significant decrease from 71% in January [1] - 56% of surveyed companies anticipate zero growth, while 11% expect a moderate contraction [1] - 68% of the surveyed Japanese companies express concern or some concern regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] Group 2 - The Japanese government revised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [4] - Major Japanese automakers, including Toyota and Honda, are expected to see a combined operating profit reduction of approximately 2.67 trillion yen (about 18.1 billion USD) this fiscal year due to U.S. tariffs [5] - The U.S. has implemented tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various trade partners, with Japan facing a tariff rate of 15% [5]