1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to undergo differential adjustments in the short - term, and the impact of the volatile Middle East situation on commodity futures needs attention. The market is considered neutral. The MA2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the port area, methanol prices in East and South China ports remained firm last week with limited increases. The ship - age restriction policy, Sino - US trade negotiations, global trade expectations, and geopolitical factors pushed up prices. In the inland area, CTO factories in the northwest purchased methanol, and speculative demand increased due to low prices, accelerating inventory clearance. However, traditional downstream demand entered the off - season, and high domestic methanol production limited the positive impact of supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 283, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 53.41 tons, an increase of 8.46 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas increased by 4.61 tons to 29.34 tons, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish signal [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. CTO factories in the northwest are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. A large number of ships are expected to arrive at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly. Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to slow sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: In the spot market, prices of various regions have changed. For example, the price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, while in Hebei it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased by 26 yuan/ton to 2417 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis increased by 89 yuan/ton to 348 yuan/ton, and the import spread decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average operating rate of the whole country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 5.68 tons to 36.60 tons, and in South China ports it increased by 2.78 tons to 16.81 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, and other plants are under maintenance, and some plants such as Shanxi Shiyang have reduced their production loads [56]. - **Foreign Plants**: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC and Kimiaya are reported to have resumed production, but it needs verification. Some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have reduced production. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance, and Qinghai Kangjiu's plant has been shut down since November 12, 2024 [58].