Report Overview - Report Title: Bean Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Bean Meal (M2601)**: Expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060. Influenced by US soybean trends, demand in the off - season, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybean (A2601)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Bean Meal**: Oscillates and declines, affected by US soybean trends, demand off - season, and spot price discounts. Expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybean**: Rises and then falls, influenced by US soybean trends, with the cost of imported soybeans supporting the price and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing it [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills declined from a high level. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for bean meal in November. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Bean meal is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, pending further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybean - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybean**: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week and a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybean**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Price and Volume**: The trading volume and average price of bean meal and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report [16]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets are provided, showing data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [32][33]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina are detailed [34][35][39]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months are included, showing data on planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - **Industry Conditions**: Information on the arrival volume of imported soybeans, soybean inventory of oil mills, soybean crushing volume, and the situation of the pig - raising industry is provided [47][48][55].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/11/19 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/11/17 2025/11/18 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 458. 1 | 458. 8 | 0. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:盘中原油行情下跌,成本下降,PTA行情小跌。 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1362. 9 | 1335.9 | -27.09 | PTA去库存,现货基差走强。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4094 | 1. 4007 | -0. 0087 | | | | CFR中国PX | 831 | 827 | -4 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 254 | 256 | 2 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 469 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度 产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口 222.62亿美元，同比下降12.63%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少18.7%；棉纱进口13 万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存845万吨。中性。 6：预期：十月份纺织品出口数据较差，虽然目前中美谈判短暂达成临时协 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by an improved order structure and effective cost control [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 107.403 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.852 billion, up 115.41% year-on-year for the first three quarters [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company recorded a revenue of 34.763 billion, a 4.76% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.074 billion, reflecting a 97.56% year-on-year growth [1]. Order and Profitability - The company’s order structure has been optimized, with a focus on high-value and green ship types, leading to an increase in profitability [2][3]. - The gross margin for the main business reached 12.56% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the delivery of higher-value ship orders [3]. Cost Control - The company has demonstrated effective cost management, with reductions in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [3]. - The sales expense ratio was 0.21%, management expense ratio was 4.07%, R&D expense ratio was 3.45%, and financial expense ratio was -1.53%, showing a decrease in most areas compared to the previous year [3]. Strategic Developments - The completion of the merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) has optimized the company’s shipbuilding resources and enhanced its competitive position in the global market [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the elimination of previous policy constraints, with new orders anticipated to be released as the shipbuilding industry continues to recover [4]. Market Outlook - The shipbuilding industry has shown sustained improvement since early 2025, with increasing demand for new ships and green technologies [4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 10.315 billion and 18.171 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25 and 14 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the decline in crude oil weakens the cost support for PTA, the news of India's BIS cancellation is positive for future PTA exports, partially offsetting the impact of the crude oil decline, resulting in a limited decline in PTA spot prices [2] - The PX market has shown a rebound trend recently. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited, driven by the soaring gasoline profit rate and the low price of pure benzene [2] - The supply side of PTA has slightly shrunk, polyester production remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol at ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, and the ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the tightness of spot goods due to low inventory is mainly reflected through the basis [2] - The coal price has risen, but it does not provide stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The conclusion of the Sino - US trade negotiation and the tariff reduction may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: The price of INE crude oil dropped from 466.2 yuan/barrel on November 12, 2025, to 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, a decrease of 16.7 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased by 151.36 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0604, the PTA主力期价 rose by 30 yuan/ton, the PTA现货价格 dropped by 25 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee decreased by 27.3 yuan/ton, the disk processing fee increased by 22.7 yuan/ton, the PTA仓单数量 increased by 5296, and the主力 basis remained unchanged [2] - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, the MEG内盘 dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton [2] - **PX**: The CFR China PX price rose by 1, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6 [2] - **Polyester Products**: The POY150D/48F price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, the POY现金流 increased by 18 yuan/ton, the FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, the FDY现金流 increased by 28 yuan/ton, the DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, the DTY现金流 increased by 28 yuan/ton, the long - filament sales rate increased by 1%, the 1.4D直纺涤短 price dropped by 55 yuan/ton, the涤短现金流 decreased by 27 yuan/ton, the short - fiber sales rate increased by 14%, the semi - bright slice price dropped by 15 yuan/ton, the slice现金流 increased by 13 yuan/ton, and the slice sales rate remained unchanged [2] 2. Industrial Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained at 88.03%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.53% to 76.84%, the MEG operating rate increased by 0.10% to 64.20%, and the polyester load remained at 89.07% [2] 3. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, and the previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will likely fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [6]. - The US cotton is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton is also predicted to show a volatile trend. For trading strategies, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 25, 30, and 35 respectively. The trading volume of CF01, CF05, and CF09 decreased by 109,232, 48,335, and 1,748 hands respectively. The open interest of CF01 decreased by 1,984, while that of CF05 increased by 3,646 and CF09 increased by 352. The CY01 contract remained unchanged, and CY05 and CY09 had no trading volume [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The Cot A price was 75.40 cents/pound. The prices of some other products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 (up 5), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 175 (up 5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 180 (down 10). In cotton - yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 19,790 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 0 (unchanged), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 19,790 (unchanged). The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,300 (up 25). The 1% tariff - based internal - external cotton spread was 1,627 (up 37) [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On November 13, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.23 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg (down 0.05 yuan/kg). As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%, with the northern region at 100%, the southern region at 97.5%, and the eastern region at 98.8% [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: With new cotton hitting the market in large quantities in November, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The demand is in a relatively off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Sino - US trade policies need to be closely monitored [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton - Yarn Industry News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bearish trend last night, with high hedging pressure. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. The downstream orders were decreasing, and most manufacturers lacked confidence in the future. The current operation rate remained stable, and the inventory increased slightly. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with limited orders and difficulty in price increase [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: On November 13, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 168.00 (up 2.4%), the implied volatility (IV) was 7.7%. For the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 21.00 (down 16.0%), the IV was 10.5%. For the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 6.00 (down 33.3%), the IV was 15.4% [11]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [15][18][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The market is in a neutral state, with the spot price at 3000 (East China), a negative basis of -59, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, showing a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, but the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in. The short - term is likely to maintain a fluctuating pattern due to various factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [8][9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The market is neutral, with a spot price of 4100 and a basis of -27, also at a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, while the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out. It will maintain a fluctuating pattern influenced by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 and soybean A2601 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges, affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement, South American planting weather, domestic demand, and inventory levels [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement quantity and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is likely to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the oil - mill soybean inventory also declined from a high level. Domestic soybean meal is likely to return to a fluctuating pattern, affected by factors such as US soybean trends, demand off - season, and inventory levels [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price. The market will wait for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports its price [15]. - **Bearish**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production, suppress the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3000 (East China), with a negative basis of -59. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a negative basis of -27. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that in November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is abundant, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market is entering a relatively off - season after the peak season, and orders have been mediocre recently. However, previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will likely fluctuate, with limited upward and downward space. Additionally, upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expiration of the Sino - US tariff agreement in November may have a significant impact on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: In the cotton futures market, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 45, 35, and 30 respectively. The trading volume of CF01 and CF05 increased by 111532 and 52444 hands respectively. In the棉纱 futures market, the CY01 contract decreased by 65, and the CY05 and CY09 contracts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B spot price increased by 7 yuan/ton, while the CY IndexC32S decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of other spot products such as Cot A, FC Index:M: to - port price, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, various price spreads, including inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, showed different degrees of change. For example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of cotton decreased by 10, and the CY01 - CF01 spread decreased by 20 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - The Xinjiang cotton road transport price index remained flat on November 12, 2025, with a slight increase in transportation demand and available capacity. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - On November 11, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton and hand - picked cotton purchase indices decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang ranges from 5.3 to 6.1 yuan/kg, and the purchase progress in some areas is over 80% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 3.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. The proportion of cotton from different sources changed, with an increase in Brazilian and Australian cotton and a decrease in US cotton [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of new cotton is increasing, and although there is a large - scale increase in production this year, the increase may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and orders are mediocre. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate, and Sino - US trade policies need attention [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side Trading**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. Previous long positions should take profits [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated weakly, and cotton yarn futures followed the same trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened, with new orders insufficient. High - count yarn export orders are better, while domestic orders are average. Spinning mills' yarn prices are stable [9]. - The cotton textile market has not changed much recently, with trading being differentiated. The profit of fabric mills is around the break - even point, and the inventory of all - cotton fabric mills has decreased slightly. Fabric mills purchase cotton yarn according to orders [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, including contract prices, yields, and Greeks (Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta). The implied volatility of different option contracts varies [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report includes multiple graphs, such as the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino - US trade negotiations, it is expected that cotton will be slightly stronger in the short - term and fluctuate mainly [6]. - It is predicted that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 20, and the CY01 contract decreased by 10, while the CY05 and CY09 contracts remained unchanged. The trading volumes of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts increased. For example, the trading volume of the CF01 contract decreased by 60,717, and the open interest increased by 3,733 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; the price of Cot A was 75.20 cents/pound. The prices of some products such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber changed. For example, the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the price of viscose staple fiber decreased by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and cotton yarn markets, there are various spreads. For example, the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,295, up 10; the 1% tariff - based internal and external cotton spread was 1,572, up 118 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: In Changji City, the cotton planting area is 520,000 mu, with an expected seed cotton yield of 247,000 tons and a total output value of 1.8 billion yuan. As of now, more than 140,000 tons of seed cotton have been purchased. The Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index remained flat on November 11, and the China Cotton Price Index decreased slightly [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: Considering the supply and demand situation and the optimistic results of Sino - US trade negotiations, it is expected that cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The production of cotton fabric factories continues, and spring and summer orders are gradually received. The spot sales of cotton fabric are slow, and the market competition is fierce. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and the prices are gradually unified. The inventory of some spinning mills is low, while some are starting to accumulate inventory [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: On November 10, 2025, for options such as CF601C13400.CZC, the closing price was 240, down 5.5%. The implied volatilities of different options varied, with CF601 - C - 13400 at 7.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 at 10.9%, and CF601 - P - 12400 at 15.2%. The 30 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly [11]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the internal and external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of different months of cotton, the spread between cotton yarn and cotton futures, and the spread between different months of cotton futures, which visually show the price trends and relationships in the cotton and cotton yarn markets [15][18][22]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily research report on cotton and cotton yarn in the agricultural products industry, dated November 10, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,580 with no change, trading volume increased by 45,473 to 204,378, and open interest decreased by 6,107 to 570,172 [2] - CF05 contract closed at 13,580, down 10, trading volume increased by 35,272 to 69,837, and open interest decreased by 1,544 to 256,824 [2] - CF09 contract closed at 13,755, up 10, trading volume increased by 469 to 832, and open interest increased by 143 to 4,253 [2] - CY01 contract closed at 19,865, up 15, trading volume increased by 3,722 to 14,472, and open interest decreased by 75 to 24,967 [2] - CY05 contract closed at 19,860, up 40, trading volume increased by 2 to 4, and open interest remained at 28 [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,075 with no change, trading volume and open interest remained at 0 and 4 respectively [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 14,844 yuan/ton, up 24; CY IndexC32S was 20,520 yuan/ton with no change [2] - Cot A was 75.85 cents/pound, FCY IndexC33S was 21,202 yuan/ton, down 15 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 74.79, down 0.63; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 yuan/ton with no change [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 10,950 yuan/ton with no change [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,950 yuan/ton with no change; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 0, up 10; 5 - 9 month spread was - 175, down 20; 9 - 1 month spread was 175, up 10 [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 5, down 25; 5 - 9 month spread was - 215, up 40; 9 - 1 month spread was 210, down 15 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,285, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 6,280, up 50; CY09 - CF09 was 6,320, down 10 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,574, up 105; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 707, up 61; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 682, up 15 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On November 10, 2025, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1827 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat. Transport demand decreased slightly, and capacity resources also decreased [4] - On November 9, 2024, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index was 6.25 yuan/kg, remaining flat; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg. The machine - picked cotton purchase price in Kashgar has been falling, and the overall purchase may end in about 10 days [4] - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 963,100 tons, accounting for 30.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the 2025/26 season, 22% slower year - on - year. Upland cotton inspection volume was 948,500 tons, with a progress of 33.73%, down 23% year - on - year; Pima cotton inspection volume was 14,600 tons, with a progress of 22%, down 51% year - on - year [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market has entered the off - season after the peak season. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino - US trade negotiations, cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last Friday night, Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. Over the weekend, the pure cotton yarn market had little change in trading, with mainly rigid demand. Spinners were reluctant to lower prices due to macro - level benefits and relatively low inventory, and some yarn prices even increased slightly. The supply pressure of new cotton is still high, and the situation of Zhengzhou cotton and terminal demand needs to be monitored [7] - Recently, the grey fabric market has improved. The price of all - cotton grey fabric has increased slightly, but it may decline if cotton prices fall again. Dyeing factories are not busy, with an order backlog of 7 - 10 days [8] Group 4: Options Option Contracts - On November 10, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,580, the closing price was 240, down 5.5%, IV was 7.7%, Delta was 0.7228, Gamma was 0.0010, Vega was 12.9673, Theta was - 2.2310, theoretical leverage was 56.5833, and actual leverage was 40.8984 [10] - For the option contract CF601P13000.CZC, the closing price was 20, up 1900%, IV was 10.9%, Delta was - 0.0930, Gamma was 0.0004, Vega was 6.9517, Theta was - 1.6288, theoretical leverage was 679.0000, and actual leverage was 63.1470 [10] - For the option contract CF601P12400.CZC, the closing price was 6, up 500%, IV was 15.2%, Delta was - 0.0247, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 2.4170, Theta was - 0.7719, theoretical leverage was 2263.3333, and actual leverage was 55.9043 [10] Volatility - On November 10, 2025, the 30 - day HV of cotton was 7.0401, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.7%, 10.9%, and 15.2% respectively [10] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7040, and the volume PCR was 0.5921. Both call and put trading volumes increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [11][12]