交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-03-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2800至2860区间震荡 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，中美贸易关系不确定性仍存和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏强震 荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区收割天气指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3010（华东），基差184，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存84.25万吨，上周83.94万吨，环比增加0.37%，去年同期49.88万吨， 同比增加68.91%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-27 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2800至2860区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，中美贸易谈判尚在进行和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏强震荡等 待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，美 豆走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3050（华东），基差216，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方 ...

对于中国而言，这一事件揭示了美国行政部门在贸易问题上的实际局限性。去年10月，在韩国釜山举行的会晤后，双方达成了一项协议，这一安排本来就依 靠双方的相互妥协来稳固局势。随着美国这一工具的限制，中方自然意识到谈判桌上形势的变化。自釜山会议以来，美国已调整部分关税，中国也暂停了对 某些关键材料的出口限制。双方的目标是维持现有的稳定局面，避免事态进一步升级。特朗普此次访华的本意，便是以此为基础，推动后续的谈判。然而， 随着法院的判决出台，特朗普不得不转而依靠其他法律依据，推出一种临时关税措施。尽管这一措施的有效期有限，且到期后需要经过国会批准，但相比以 往的做法，其灵活性显然大大降低。对此，中国商务部迅速作出回应，表示将全面评估影响，并呼吁取消所有单边加征关税的做法。这一表态不仅表明了中 国对规则的重视，也让外界看到了中方在谈判中可操作的空间。 2月20日，白宫刚刚对外宣布，特朗普计划在3月底访问中国。这一消息一出，外界普遍认为这不过是延续之前的贸易安排。然而，就在消息刚刚发布当天， 美国最高法院就做出了一项判决，宣布特朗普过去常用的关税手段不合法。这一判决的时机异常紧凑，访华计划刚刚敲定，司法系统就迅速出手。特朗 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2810至2870区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，巴西大豆收割进程偏慢和中美贸易谈判尚在进行支撑美豆盘面， 美豆短期偏强震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国 内豆粕震荡回升，美豆走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持 区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3060（华东），基差229，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4.盘面： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Expected to oscillate within the range of 2710 - 2770. Influenced by the US - China trade deal, South American weather, and domestic demand, it's likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4340 - 4440. Affected by factors such as US - China trade, South American weather, and domestic supply - demand, it will likely stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal futures return to an oscillatory state, while the spot price remains relatively stable, with the spot premium staying at a relatively high level [23]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills returns to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increases year - on - year [25][50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand [27][52]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the price difference of the 2605 contract fluctuates slightly [29]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean futures are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - China's import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline. The soybean inventory in oil mills remains relatively high in January. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to a short - term oscillatory pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking. The good demand for soybean meal in January supports its price. Influenced by US soybeans and the recovery of demand, it maintains an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, keeps soybean meal in a short - term oscillatory state, awaiting clear US soybean yields and further progress in the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total volume of imported soybeans in January remains relatively high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans leads to an increase in China's purchases; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - **Basis**: The spot price is 3030 (in East China), and the basis is 295, indicating a premium over futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills is 94.72 million tons, a 9.27% decrease from last week and a 70.15% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans** - **Basis**: The spot price is 4400, and the basis is 22, a neutral premium over futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is 687.33 million tons, a 3.62% decrease from last week and a 31.81% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The short positions of the main force decrease, and funds flow out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main force switches from long to short, and funds flow out, showing a bearish outlook [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 29 to February 6, data on the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary**: From January 30 to February 6, prices of soybean futures (including different contracts), soybean meal futures, and soybean and soybean meal spot prices are presented [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From January 28 to February 6, data on the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including different varieties) and soybean meal are given [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand from 2016 to 2025 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, and consumption [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: Information on the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 is presented [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Data on planting area, yield per unit, output, and other aspects of US soybeans from June 2025 to January 2026 are provided, along with data on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection and Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreases month - on - month but increases year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans is at a low level at the beginning of the year and decreases year - on - year recently [45][47]. - **Livestock - Related Data**: The inventory of live pigs increases slightly year - on - year, while the inventory of sows decreases year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuates slightly, and the price of piglets rebounds slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China increases, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continues to rise. The domestic pig - raising profit shows a slight profit, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio decline to a low level [56][58][60][62][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. Influenced by the US soybean trend and end - of - year demand, it will maintain a short - term oscillating pattern due to mixed news [9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by factors such as the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports, it will maintain a short - term range - bound oscillation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal M2605**: In the short - term, it may maintain an oscillating pattern. The US soybean trend, end - of - year demand, and news factors will all have an impact. The price is neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is neutral, the main position is bearish [9]. - **Soybean A2605**: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports. The price is neutral, the basis is neutral, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market will oscillate above the thousand - point mark in the short - term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. The soybean meal will return to a range - bound oscillation in the short - term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained good in January, supporting the price expectation. Affected by the US soybean trend and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area still exists, and the preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation will affect the soybean meal to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather in the South American soybean production area [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; Brazilian soybeans have started sowing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary US - China trade agreement [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the US - China trade tariff game [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 22 to January 30, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume also fluctuated. The average transaction price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From January 23 to January 30, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated, and the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From January 21 to January 30, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 decreased, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.2 decreased to zero, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina from 2023/24, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [43]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in soybean meal increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - The main long positions in soybeans decreased, and the funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [44]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans entered a low level at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [46]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [49]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation [51]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated and declined following the US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price declined slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continued to rise [59]. - The domestic pig - raising profit was slightly profitable [61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the potential for a new round of trade negotiations between China and the United States, as indicated by U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer at the World Economic Forum in Davos, focusing on non-sensitive trade items [1][2] - Wang Zhihua, Director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, emphasized that under the strategic guidance of the leaders of both countries, five rounds of economic and trade consultations have been conducted, yielding positive results [1] - The Chinese side expresses willingness to engage in further negotiations with the U.S. based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation principles, aiming to maintain stable and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Guo Jia Kun, reiterated the importance of implementing the significant consensus reached by the leaders of both countries to enhance economic cooperation and provide more stability and certainty to the global economy [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. is shifting its diplomatic stance towards China after facing backlash from European allies and internal pressures, indicating a need for cooperation to manage escalating tensions [1][5][11] - The announcement of a 10% tariff on eight European countries by the Trump administration led to immediate retaliatory measures from the EU, including a €93 billion countermeasure list, highlighting the fragility of U.S.-Europe relations [1][3] - The U.S. financial markets reacted negatively to the tariff announcements, with significant declines in stock and bond markets, and a surge in gold prices, indicating investor anxiety and the economic repercussions of the tariffs [1] Group 2 - The U.S. military is stretched thin, with a notable decrease in aircraft carrier deployments, which has raised concerns about its operational capabilities across multiple regions [5] - American businesses are under pressure due to their reliance on the Chinese market, with ongoing trade tensions threatening their stability and profitability [6] - China's response to U.S. overtures has been measured, emphasizing the importance of maintaining its own economic interests and leveraging its strong market position, as evidenced by a 12% increase in exports to Belt and Road countries [8] Group 3 - The U.S. is attempting to alleviate geopolitical pressures by softening its stance on trade negotiations with China, proposing a tiered approach to discussions while simultaneously imposing restrictions on Chinese technology [9] - The U.S. strategy appears to be a mix of cooperation and coercion, as it seeks to negotiate trade terms while maintaining a hardline stance on issues like semiconductor supply chains [9][11] - China's advancements in renewable energy and 5G technology position it favorably in the global market, reducing its dependency on U.S. security guarantees and dollar transactions [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - On January 21, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed performance. IF rose 0.35%, IH fell 0.07%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 1.55%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed certain trends, with A-shares having sector rotations and Hong Kong stocks rising with increased trading volume [1][2][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Stock Index Futures Data**: - For CSI 300, the closing price was 4723.1, up 0.09%, with a trading volume of 665.33 billion. For IF2602, the closing price was 4724.2, up 0.35%, with a basis of 1.13, trading volume of 36.24 billion, and 25,500 contracts traded, a decrease of 437. For IF2603, the closing price was 4722.8, up 0.41%, with a basis of -0.27, trading volume of 105.3 billion, and 74,116 contracts traded, a decrease of 5750. Similar data are provided for other contracts [1] - For SSE 50, the closing price was 3067.2, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 198.83 billion. For IH2602, the closing price was 3069.8, down 0.07%, with a basis of 2.62, trading volume of 9.99 billion, and 10,796 contracts traded, an increase of 1062. Similar data are provided for other contracts [1] - For CSI 500, the closing price was 8340.1, up 1.12%, with a trading volume of 517.59 billion. For IC2602, the closing price was 8373.2, up 1.79%, with a basis of 33.09, trading volume of 54.05 billion, and 32,474 contracts traded, a decrease of 5409. Similar data are provided for other contracts [1] - For CSI 1000, the closing price was 8247.7, up 0.79%, with a trading volume of 564.72 billion. For IM2602, the closing price was 8260, up 1.55%, with a basis of 12.32, trading volume of 61.3 billion, and 37,231 contracts traded, a decrease of 4359. Similar data are provided for other contracts [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 9379 contracts, IH increased by 5763 contracts, IC decreased by 41,699 contracts, and IM decreased by 31,314 contracts. In terms of open interest, IF decreased by 6447 contracts, IH increased by 4576 contracts, IC decreased by 8110 contracts, and IM decreased by 6771 contracts [2] - **Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes**: - For IF contracts, the long positions of IF2601 decreased by 360, and the short positions decreased by 497. The long positions of IF2602 decreased by 6223, with a net change of -7250, and the short positions decreased by 6121, with a net change of -7842. Similar data are provided for other contracts [5] - For IH contracts, the long positions of IH2601 increased by 1508, and the short positions increased by 1445. The long positions of IH2602 increased by 1577, with a net change of 3072, and the short positions increased by 1812, with a net change of 3204. Similar data are provided for other contracts [5] - For IC contracts, the long positions of IC2601 decreased by 2267, and the short positions decreased by 1270. The long positions of IC2602 decreased by 7135, with a net change of -9436, and the short positions decreased by 3523, with a net change of -5279. Similar data are provided for other contracts [5] - For IM contracts, the long positions of IM2601 decreased by 2564, and the short positions decreased by 1847. The long positions of IM2602 decreased by 6867, with a net change of -8845, and the short positions decreased by 3691, with a net change of -5708. Similar data are provided for other contracts [5] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [6] 3. Important Drivers - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that this year's focus in urban renewal includes three aspects: continuously promoting the renovation of old urban residential areas, comprehensively promoting the construction of complete communities, and carrying out the renovation of small - scale public spaces in cities. The government will also focus on stabilizing the real estate market and implementing relevant institutional reforms [6] - US Trade Representative Greer expressed hope for another round of potential trade negotiations with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, said that China and the US should jointly implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state [6] 4. Stock Market Performance - **A - shares**: The three major A - share indexes fluctuated higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.08% to close at 4116.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.7%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.54%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.14%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 3.53%, the Wind All - A rose 0.57%, and the Wind A500 rose 0.37%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 2.62 trillion yuan, compared with 2.8 trillion yuan the previous day. Gold stocks had a daily limit up, and the non - ferrous metals sector strengthened. On the other hand, the large - consumption sectors such as liquor and retail declined, and the large - finance sectors such as banks and insurance weakened. The trading volume of several broad - based ETFs increased significantly at the end of the session, with the trading volume of the SSE 50 ETF exceeding 15 billion yuan, setting a record high [6] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Hong Kong stocks rose with increased trading volume. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.37% to close at 26,585.06 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.11% to 5746.3 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.31% to 9122.95 points. The market trading volume was HK$250.451 billion, an increase from HK$237.766 billion the previous day. Some stocks in the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index had significant price changes [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of iron ore shows a marginally strengthening pattern. The supply from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil has declined for two consecutive weeks, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually decrease. The demand is still resilient with the total output of five major steel products rising slightly and the daily average hot metal output remaining at a relatively high level. Steel mills are in the pre - holiday stockpiling stage, which will support the iron ore price. Although the futures price has been falling due to news from BHP, the price is expected to rebound after the decline, but the upside space is limited due to high port inventories [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 21, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The main contracts of other steel and iron ore futures also showed different trends, such as RB2605 down 0.35%, HC2605 down 0.06%, and SS2603 up 2.40% [7][5] - In the spot market, on January 21, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0.8 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore in Qingdao Port decreased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract continued to decline, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has been expanding for two consecutive days [9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - Supply side: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil have declined for two consecutive weeks. The shipment volume last week decreased by 3.691 million tons to 21.641 million tons. The arrival volume decreased by 2.603 million tons to 26.597 million tons last week and is expected to gradually decline [10] - Demand side: The total output of five major steel products increased slightly again last week for three consecutive weeks. The daily average hot metal output decreased slightly to 2.2801 million tons after three consecutive weeks of growth, but it is still 0.035 million tons more than the same period last year, indicating resilient demand [11] - Inventory side: Steel mills have entered the pre - holiday stockpiling stage this week, and the inventory available days increased by 2 days to 21 days compared with last week. The stockpiling is expected to continue until one week before the Spring Festival, which will boost the iron ore price to some extent [11] - News: BHP's acceptance of lower prices in some iron ore transactions has led to a continuous decline in the futures price recently. However, considering the marginal improvement of the fundamentals, the pre - holiday stockpiling demand will support the price, and the price may rebound after the decline, but the high port inventories will limit the upside space [11] 3.2 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said in Davos that he hopes to conduct another round of potential trade negotiations with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China and the US should implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state [12] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development Ni Hong said that this year, the focus in urban renewal is to promote the renovation of old urban residential areas, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of small public spaces in cities. The real estate market will be stabilized, and the project company system, the lead - bank system, and the spot - sale system for commercial housing will be promoted [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract in Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volumes at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills' iron ore, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port inventory and dispatch volume of iron ore, the cost of hot metal without tax of sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][18][21]