交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-01-08 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2780至2840区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，中国继续采购美国大豆和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归震荡等 待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回 升，美豆带动和需求改善交互影响，年底需求逐渐进入旺季和现货价格升水支撑盘面， 消息面多空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3110（华东），基差299，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存117.02万吨，上周116.76万吨，环比增加0.22%，去年同期68.36万吨， 同比增加71. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-01-07 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2740至2800区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，南美大豆丰产预期压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归震 荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震 荡回升，美豆带动和需求改善交互影响，年底需求逐渐进入旺季和现货价格升水支撑盘 面，消息面多空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3070（华东），基差294，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存117.02万吨，上周116.76万吨，环比增加0.22%，去年同期68.36万吨， 同比增加7 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-01-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，南美大豆丰产和中国采购美豆数量不足，美豆短期回归震荡等待 中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和需求改善交互影响，年底需求逐渐进入旺季和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多 空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3060（华东），基差311，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存113.71万吨，上周109.69万吨，环比增加3.66%，去年同期58.28万吨， 同比增加95.11%。偏空 4.盘面 ...

当前，本人所管理的消费主题类基金，将始终坚持追求稳健的投资理念。在具体配置上，我们倾向于在 各个细分消费领域精选具备估值优势与持续成长性的优质个股。尽管当前整体消费板块仍面临压力，但 我们观察到部分细分行业依然呈现出较好的结构性机会，例如科技领域的消费电子、可选消费中的家 电，以及汽车零部件等方向。其中，尤其值得关注的是那些已具备海外布局能力、与国内市场周期关联 度较低、增长相对稳健且估值较合理的优秀企业。这类资产并非市场短期追逐的热点，反而更符合我们 长期配置的定位与要求。 另外，在金饰品行业中，除少数新兴品牌被纳入新消费范畴外，多数黄金下游零售企业受金价上涨影 响，增速表现相对平缓甚至出现负增长，其估值也处于较为合理区间。相比上游的金矿企业，我们认为 当前该板块具备较强的长期配置吸引力。此外，可选消费中仍有相当比例属于地产链下游领域，例如消 费建材类公司。尽管受到房地产行业下行影响，但这类企业估值已调整至相对合理水平，且仍保持一定 增长韧性，同样具备较好的长期布局价值。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年市场预计可能将延续2024年以来的运行逻辑，财政与货币政策或仍将成为驱动市场的主导力量， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Views and Strategies for Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2730 and 2790. The market is influenced by factors such as the increase in US soybean exports, technical adjustments, short - term improvement in demand, and the discount of spot prices. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are decreasing with capital inflow. Overall, it is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak [9]. 2.2. Views and Strategies for Soybeans - Soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The market is affected by China's increased procurement of US soybeans, technical adjustments, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones. It is also influenced by the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. The outlook is neutral. The basis is neutral, the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow. The cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the bottom, but the high - volume arrival of imported soybeans and domestic soybean production growth suppress the price [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Hints - Not explicitly presented in the provided content 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's procurement and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above 1000 points in the short term. The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation. The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, but the increase in soybean meal demand in December has supported the price. The high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing area, and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement have led to a short - term range - bound oscillation of soybean meal, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expectation of increased demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - From December 16th to 24th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 and 3138, and the trading volume was between 3.55 and 18.45 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 and 2520, and the trading volume was 0 [17]. - From December 17th to 24th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the prices of soybean and soybean meal spot remained relatively stable [19]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally increased, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [33]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - In the 2023/24 season, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans was generally in line with the five - year average [34]. - In 2024, the sowing, growing, and harvesting progress of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - In the 2025/26 season, the planting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [42][43]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 3.6. Other Data and Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, showing an overall year - on - year growth [47]. - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, and the stocking demand increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [48][50][52][53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-12-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归震荡等待中美贸 易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅震荡，美豆走势带 动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面交互影响，短期或维持震 荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差279，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存109.69万吨，上周116.19万吨，环比减少5.59%，去年同期64.02万吨， 同比增加71.34%。偏空 4.盘面：价 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-12-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，巴西大豆丰产预期和中国采购美豆数量不及美国预期，美豆短期 回归震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震 荡回落，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面交互 影响，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3010（华东），基差275，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存109.69万吨，上周116.19万吨，环比减少5.59%，去年同期64.02万吨， 同比增加71.34%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a weakening dollar index and improved market sentiment towards the RMB, following a period of trade tensions and policy adjustments [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Changes - Since late November, the offshore RMB has appreciated over 550 pips, while the onshore RMB has appreciated over 400 pips, indicating a return to an appreciation trend [2]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a weakening dollar index, which has declined by 1% from its peak, aligning with the RMB's appreciation [2][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The driving force behind the RMB's appreciation is the increase in foreign exchange settlement (结汇) by exporters, which had been low earlier due to tariff impacts and unstable exchange rate expectations [3]. - Since the third quarter, there has been a notable improvement in the willingness to settle foreign exchange, leading to a compensatory settlement that supports RMB appreciation [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Looking ahead, the RMB is expected to continue appreciating slowly, contingent on a further weakening of the dollar index [4]. - The central bank's policy aims for a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with recent indicators suggesting a shift towards preventing rapid appreciation to avoid negative impacts on exports [4]. - The market has priced in three potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, limiting the scope for further declines in long-term US Treasury yields and maintaining the interest rate differential between China and the US [4].

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 豆粕早报 2025-12-02 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3020至3080区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，中国大豆供应充裕市场质疑中国采购美豆数量能否达到预期，美 豆短期偏强震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内 豆粕冲高回落，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘 面反弹高度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差-19，贴水期货。中性 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加27.52 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Bean Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Bean Meal (M2601)**: Expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060. Influenced by US soybean trends, demand in the off - season, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybean (A2601)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Bean Meal**: Oscillates and declines, affected by US soybean trends, demand off - season, and spot price discounts. Expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybean**: Rises and then falls, influenced by US soybean trends, with the cost of imported soybeans supporting the price and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing it [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills declined from a high level. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for bean meal in November. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Bean meal is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, pending further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybean - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybean**: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week and a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybean**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Price and Volume**: The trading volume and average price of bean meal and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report [16]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets are provided, showing data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [32][33]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina are detailed [34][35][39]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months are included, showing data on planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - **Industry Conditions**: Information on the arrival volume of imported soybeans, soybean inventory of oil mills, soybean crushing volume, and the situation of the pig - raising industry is provided [47][48][55].