第一财经记者独家获悉，2023年担任波音中国总裁的柳青近日退休，原本在波音民机销售部门工作的沈 忱（Carol Shen）被任命为代理董事总经理，此前公司并没有这一职位。 在前波音中国总裁谢利嘉（Sherry Carbary）宣布于2023年退休后，1957年出生的美籍华人柳青被任命 为波音中国总裁。 在担任波音中国总裁之前，柳青负责波音在中国的政府关系团队，还曾在福特汽车、克莱斯勒汽车及克 莱斯勒-戴姆勒公司担任领导职务。 波音表示，公司第二季度737机型的产量已经提高至每月38架，今年晚些时候预计将提高至每月42架； 宽体机787机型的产量也从每月5架提升至7架。 除了生产端的复苏，市场对波音的信心似乎也在回暖。第二季度，公司获得了455架飞机的净订单，其 中包括来自卡塔尔航空的120架787梦想客机和30架777-9客机的大单，以及英国航空订购的32架787-10 客机订单。 关税和供应链挑战 不过，中美贸易谈判的悬而未决，依然对波音的订单和交付带来不确定性。 对于波音来说，中国是其单一最大海外市场。在业务顶峰时的2018年，波音有四分之一的新飞机交付给 了中国。 近20年来，波音任命的5位中国总裁中， ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The stock-bond seesaw effect is evident, as the stock market continues to reach new highs while the bond market faces pressure. The 10-year government bond is unlikely to see a strong rebound before reaching the annual line [11] - The A-share market has seen a high turnover of 2.45 trillion, with nearly 2900 stocks declining. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high, indicating that the upward trend is not over yet, with support at the 3450-point gap remaining intact [14][16] - The U.S. stock market is in a weak recovery phase, with the Nasdaq down 0.67% and the Dow Jones up 0.04%. The economic outlook remains optimistic, with expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September due to soft employment data [3][20] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The strategy for the bond market is to anticipate a downward trend with fluctuations near the annual line [7] - For the A-share market, the support level has been raised to the 3540-point gap, maintaining a bullish outlook as long as the support line holds [7] - The strategy for the U.S. stock market remains bullish, with expectations for new historical highs [7] - In the foreign exchange market, a strategic bullish outlook on the U.S. dollar is recommended, as the dollar index is expected to continue fluctuating [24][26] Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index has increased by 0.34%, with polyester, new energy, and oil sectors leading the gains. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the July 10 low as support [28]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has decided to extend the tariff suspension period between the US and China by 90 days, reflecting a compromise in the ongoing trade negotiations [1] - The trade negotiations between the US and China are complex and unlikely to achieve breakthroughs in the short term due to the large scale and intricacy of their trade relationship, which has reached nearly $600 billion over the past 24 years [3] - The US is facing challenges from other countries regarding its tariff policies, as Brazil has formally challenged the US tariffs at the WTO, indicating a growing resistance to US trade measures [5] Group 2 - European countries are beginning to voice their concerns over US tariff policies, which have caused significant losses, suggesting a shift in the international response to US trade actions [6] - The extension of the tariff suspension period allows Trump more time to navigate various domestic and international pressures, highlighting the difficulties he faces in managing the trade war with China [8]

美国农业界也清楚，如果一直有关税威胁，美国大豆在中国市场就没有竞争力。现在中国对美国大豆的关税是23%，这让美国产品的价格明显偏高。除非两 国谈妥降税，否则这种局面不会改变。从数据上看，去年中国进口了大约1.05亿吨大豆，其中2213万吨来自美国，价值约120亿美元。特朗普甚至在关税休 战到期前要求中国把采购量翻几倍，几乎要中国把所有的大豆都从美国买走。但业内人士认为，这几乎不可能。毕竟巴西的市场地位太稳固了，而且中国企 业近几年一直在减少对美国农产品的依赖，这是一种长期策略。 很显然，中美关税休战期延长90天虽然看似给了双方时间，但并没有带来立刻的采购行动。因为只要23%的关税还在，美国大豆就很难打赢价格战。现在如 果不算关税，美国10月份发货的大豆比巴西的同类货便宜大约40美元每吨，但加上关税后，美国大豆就失去了价格优势。 特朗普抛出的橄榄枝，大概是被中国企业直接无视了，今年美国大豆出口商的日子可能不太好过了。原因很简单，中国这个全球最大的大豆买家，最近相关 企业的采购订单基本都被巴西拿下了。等到美国的大豆营销旺季到来时，中国的仓库可能已经装得满满的。这样一来，美国可能会错失数十亿美元的销售机 会。 据几 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: With stronger raw material prices, improved demand expectations, and positive macro - factors, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Gold: Short - term rebound, but medium - term outlook is still bearish and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold [2]. - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate weakly. The outcome of the US - Russia negotiation on August 15 should be watched [4]. - PTA: Follows the crude oil trend and oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and uncertain downstream demand [5]. - Pig: Short - term over - optimism is not advisable, while long - term long positions in the LH2511 contract can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Silver: Oscillates with a bullish bias as the probability of a September interest rate cut remains high [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: There is a continuous tug - of - war between bulls and bears in the market [9]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Short - term bullish, but medium - term outlook is bearish and oscillating [9]. - Coking Coal: Short - term price correction space is limited, and subsequent coal production and downstream production cuts should be monitored [10]. - Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, but there are concerns about the medium - to - long - term fundamentals [10]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. - Plastic: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [14]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection is affected by rainfall. China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and demand expectations are improving. The Fed's potential interest rate cut also boosts the market [1]. Gold - The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict influence the gold market [2]. Crude Oil - The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, and the EIA reported an increase in US production and inventory. The US - Russia meeting may impact the geopolitical support for oil prices [4]. PTA - PTA device maintenance has increased, but the operating rate is expected to rise. Downstream polyester demand has uncertainties due to profit issues [5]. Pig - Pig prices are rising steadily with regional differences. Demand remains weak, and investment strategies vary in the short and long term [6]. Palm Oil - The USDA report shows stable production and export forecasts, with a slight decrease in consumption and inventory. Market sentiment is bullish in the short term [7]. Silver - Fed officials are trying to cool the interest - rate cut expectations, but a September cut is still likely, leading to a bullish outlook for silver [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply shortages may drive prices up, but demand - side substitution and other factors restrict price increases [9]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are falling, and the market may rebound in the short term, but the medium - term outlook is bearish [9]. Coking Coal - The production and inventory of washed coal are increasing, and downstream demand has support, but the market is in a wait - and - see state [10]. Ferrosilicon - The cost is supported, but production is increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand relationship may become looser [10]. Methanol - Port inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Plastic - Supply pressure may ease, and the market is expected to oscillate with weak cost support [13]. Glass - Production is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is rising, with the market expected to oscillate [14].

市场主流观点汇总 关 迪 报告说明 | 【大宗商品观点汇总】 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观金融板块 | | | 市场主流策略观点+投资逻辑 | 热点品种 | | 策略观点：我们采集8家机构观点，其中看多2家、看空1家、震荡5家。 | | | 利多逻辑： | 1：美联储降息预期升温； | | 2：7月美元计价进出口同比增速均加快； | 3：中美贸易谈判继续延期，短期暂无宏观风险； | | 4：北京解除五环外符合条件客户的限购。 | 股指期货 | | 利空逻辑： | 1：跟踪沪深300指数的ETF份额本周减少8亿份； | | 2：国内经济数据暂未摆脱通缩压力； | 3：A股沪深京三市日均成交额16967亿元，环比上周缩量1133亿元； | | 4：国内内需消费，基建、地产仍存不确定性。 | | | 策略观点：我们采集7家机构观点，其中看多1家、看空3家、震荡3家。 | | | 利多逻辑： | 1：7月信贷数据较弱，基本面仍偏利多债市； | | 2：央行预计维持资金面均衡，缓解税期扰动； | 3：美国非农数据不及预期，美联储降息预期升温； | | 国债期货 | 4：存量券因免税优势受追捧，收益率下行 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口 267.7亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15177，基差1197（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度7月预计期末库存823万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main contract 2601 rose 0.62% to 3091 yuan/ton, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2] - DCE live hog's main contract 2509 fell 5 yuan/ton to 13965 yuan/ton, with the national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live hogs dropping 0.02 yuan/kg to 13.65 yuan/kg [2] - Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract rose 2.41% to 1010 cents/bushel [2] Group 2: Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. Temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was near to above normal [3][4] - 6 - 10 day outlook: there will be sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, and temperature will be near to above normal [4] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On August 8, national major oil mills' imported soybean inventory was 765 million tons, up 46 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 100 million tons, down 4 million tons week - on - week [5] - On August 12, US soybean import cost reached 4555 yuan, up 86 yuan; Brazilian soybean import cost was 4039 yuan, up 103 yuan; Argentine soybean import cost was 3777 yuan, up 75 yuan [5] - On August 11, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume increased to 54000 tons, and the average trading price rose to 3021.79 yuan/ton [5] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 277.45 million tons of soybeans in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 26.51% year - on - year [6] - US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 68%, flowering rate was 91%, and pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, US soybean crushing profit was 3.09 dollars/bushel, up 3.0% week - on - week [6] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 68.49 million tons of soybean meal in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 17.75% year - on - year [6] - As of the week ending August 7, 2025, US soybean export inspection volume was 518066 tons [7] - From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff measure will be suspended for 90 days [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 85.9% [7] Group 4: Analysis and Strategy Soybean Meal - US soybean futures rebounded, boosted by the US president's call and the suspension of the 24% tariff. However, the expectation of a US soybean bumper crop restricts the price rebound space [15][16] - Domestic continuous soybean meal M01 dropped sharply. The basis price rebounded, and the trade flow between regions supported the spot price. Future US soybean imports remain uncertain [17] Live Hogs - On the supply side, farmers are increasing supply by reducing the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, demand is recovering slightly but still limited by high temperatures [19] - It is expected that the near - month contracts will be relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15161，基差1281（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度7月预计期末库存823万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏多，净持仓多减，主力趋势不明朗；偏多。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判继续延后，低于市场预期。7月在抢出口的时间窗口下，纺织品出 口数据不理想。目前消费淡季，金九银十行情不明朗，01合约短期横盘整理，上方关注 14000附近压力。 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，商业库存同比降低。 利空：贸易谈判延期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].