全球地缘政治剧烈变动，让 2025 成为宏观对冲基金 "大年"—— 全球最大对冲基金公司桥水的旗舰 宏观对冲 基金 Pure Alpha ， 在 今年上半年收获 17% 丰厚回报 。另一家知名宏观对冲基金公司 EDL Capital的全球机会策略基金，同期回报率更高达26%。 7 月 24 日，美国桥水首席投资官在更新 2025 二季度市场观点时，在开篇就强调：当前世界正经历 的格局转变，是桥水创立以来最具颠覆性的变化。他还指出，桥水在分析投资者面临的 "新常 态"时， 将 "新的地缘政治与宏观经济范式"列为最关键的三组核心变量之一，放在首位 。 为了帮大家 学会 从市场视角读懂地缘政治，我们邀请海外资管机构 Clocktower的首席策略师王凯 文 ，担任 8月17日在上海举行的Alpha季度闭门私享课主讲嘉宾。在 此次 闭门课中，王凯文老师将 深入解析地缘政治投资分析的核心方法论与约束限制分析框架，分享他提炼出的五条最关键经验教 训， 帮到场的 Alpha会员和见闻大师课会员们从全球市场的角度读懂地缘政治，看清地缘政治背后 的主导逻辑与关键趋势，前瞻大类资产中长期走势，助力个人的关键决策 。 举行这场以 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traders in the U.S. Treasury market are heavily betting on a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, as indicated by Chairman Powell's dovish signals in Congress [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Expectations and Movements - Significant options betting has occurred, with at least $38 million in premiums paid for call options on 10-year Treasury bonds, targeting a drop in yields to 4% or below [1][4] - The market is pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut this year, with expectations for two cuts in September and December [5][22] - The 10-year Treasury yield has recently dipped below 4.3%, marking its lowest level since early May [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Influences - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell by 5.4 points to 93, below economists' expectations, contributing to the dovish sentiment in the market [6] - The decline in consumer confidence reflects a significant drop in expectations for future business conditions, indicating potential economic weakness [6] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - There has been a notable increase in open interest for August call options on the 10-year Treasury, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards a yield drop [9][10] - The skew in Treasury options has shifted towards a bullish stance, with traders paying higher premiums to hedge against falling yields [19] Group 4: Broader Market Implications - A decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% could alleviate pressure on risk assets, particularly benefiting technology stocks and other high-growth sectors [24][25] - The current yield levels are critical as they serve as a key input in valuation models for equities, influencing the overall market sentiment [25]

Group 1 - A global capital market turmoil is emerging, with the Middle East situation affecting global markets, leading to a 2% drop in the Hang Seng Index [1] - The A-share market is influenced by the Hong Kong market, which in turn is affected by the US market, creating a cycle that impacts trading volumes and market direction [3][4] - The US stock market, valued at $70 trillion, benefits from volatility, as wealthier investors are less affected by emotional trading, allowing them to profit during market fluctuations [4] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a decline of 1.74%, with over 4,600 companies falling, although there was a brief rebound in sectors like chips and robotics before a shift towards oil and gas [5] - The Chinese market is reportedly well-protected against external shocks, with a strategic design that mitigates risks from geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Iran [6] - The market's ability to recover and attract global capital is contingent on the performance of key indices like the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300, which need to show strength to draw foreign investment [3][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CATL's successful listing on the Hong Kong stock market has attracted significant investor interest, with its H-shares trading at a premium of over 10% compared to A-shares, indicating strong market appeal [1] - The phenomenon of premium in the Hong Kong market is driven by the global competition for asset pricing power, with over 40% of international institutions in the Hong Kong market valuing CATL based on its overseas market potential [1][2] - CATL's unique position in the new energy sector is highlighted by its comprehensive technology and application capabilities, making it a rare asset in the Hong Kong market [2] Group 2 - CATL's cash flow characteristics are emphasized, with a projected net cash flow from operating activities of 96.99 billion, which is 1.9 times its net profit, showcasing strong cash flow quality [3] - The company's engineering culture and significant R&D investment of 18.6 billion (5.14% of revenue) have resulted in a substantial number of patents, providing a competitive edge in advanced battery technologies [4] - CATL's financial health is robust, with 303.5 billion in cash and a low interest-bearing debt ratio of 17.52%, indicating strong financial management [5] Group 3 - The current valuation of CATL is assessed at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26.6, which is at the upper limit of its reasonable valuation range of 20-25 times [8] - Future projections suggest that if CATL maintains a PE of 25 based on a forecasted net profit of 66 billion in 2025, its market value could reach 1.65 trillion [9] - The cautious perspective suggests that manufacturing sector valuations may not exceed a PE of 20, indicating a need for careful observation of market conditions before making investment decisions [11]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！ 限量发放！ 先到先得！ 美国特朗普政府推出所谓"对等关税"已一月有余，全球资产定价逻辑发生改变。投资者应如何调整 资产配置？对此，中国基金报记者采访了工银国际首席经济学家程实，德意志银行国际私人银行部 亚洲投资策略主管刘佳，知名经济学家洪灏，汇丰环球私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡 正，博时基金（国际）有限公司固定收益部副主管卢里等5位中外资机构人士。 他们表示，地缘政治的不确定性使全球经济更加脆弱。中长期看，资金回流非美经济体有利于全球 经济及金融体系再平衡。中国股市中期牛市格局并未改变，市场将回归正常的估值修复过程。 牛市格局并未改变 程实： 人民币汇率在中长期将呈现总体趋稳、略有升值的态势。首先，中国经济基本面持续改善， 为汇率提供坚实支撑；其次，中外货币政策同步趋于宽松，有助于缓解中美利差收窄带来的压力， 稳定跨境资本流动；最后，人民币国际化进程不断提速，增强了市场的信心。 中国基金报：全球供应链重构将如何影响中国股市？投资者应如何调整行业配置？ 中国基金报：如何评价当前中国经济复苏情况？实现"5%左右"的增长目标的核心支 ...

点击图片▲立即了解 " 在这种疯狂的 ' 信用真空 ' 的时刻，世界需要一个新的锚，一个不依赖信用、不受人为操控、不怕制裁的锚。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 和特朗普关税核弹一起爆炸的，还有现货黄金和美债。 4月2日，美国宣布对几十个国家加征"对等关税"，全球股市、商品期货、加密货币、贵金属……几乎所有资产都惨遭血洗。然而仅仅过了十天， 黄金和美债这对避险界的"老搭档"却分道扬镳，一个狂飙突进，一个跌成表情包，连"避险"资格都快保不住了。 昨日，国际金价刷新历史高点，站上3200美元/盎司，中国品牌金饰克价逼近1000元——今年年初，国际金价还仅为约2600美元/盎司。 而在这高歌猛进的黄金背后，是一路下跌的美债。 本周以来，美债市场由涨转跌，10年期美债收益率一度上涨10个基点，美债跌逾2%，创下2019年9月美国爆发"回购危机"以来的最大跌幅。这撼 动的是全球金融体系的底座—— 10年期 美债 被称为"全球资产定价之锚" ， 它的波动不仅展现着投资者对美国经济的信心变化，更影响着全球资金流向、融资成本、甚至其他资 产的风险溢价。 4月以来，特朗普的关税政策朝令夕改，导致债券市场遭受重创， ...