展望2026年，饶刚认为，全球资产定价的影响因素可能从货币政策主导向货币政策与财政政策共同主导 倾斜。对于2026年的投资机遇，饶刚表示，一是AI近几年快速发展，行业体量足以构成宏观层面的波 动来源，是不容忽视的风险和机遇来源；二是中国制造业迈上新台阶，出海的风险与机遇并存，目前中 国的海外投资收益仍低于部分发达国家，而且中国的制造业企业具备显著的性价比优势，中国企业出海 故事将是更长期的、值得挖掘的投资机遇；三是随着地产链下行和内需板块估值下移，中国很多消费龙 头企业已具备4%以上的股息率以及稳定需求，并且可能隐含未来内需提升的上涨需求，目前已具备左 侧配置价值。 日前，由中国证券报主办的"开放融合新机——2025海外投资发展大会"在上海举行，睿远基金总经理饶 刚在圆桌对话环节表示，回望2025年，欧美降息通道和日本加息通道虽然构成了体感上的分化，但从经 济总量和金融市场维度来看，货币政策分化并未扭转全球流动性宽松的趋势，全球资产定价的主要驱动 力仍是流动性宽松以及伴随而来的弱美元格局。 ...

北京时间12月11日凌晨3点，美联储宣布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从3.75%—4.00%下调至3.50%—3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29 日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点，今年累计降息75个基点。 图：联邦基金利率年内三次下跌 数据来源：Wind 截至：2025.12.10 美联储降息对港股影响几何？ 1、流动性闸门打开：港元与美元挂钩，香港银行间利率（HIBOR）基本跟随美息下行。1个月Hibor从5.5%快速掉到4%以下，边际资金成本下降150bp。本 地券商融资利率、散户保证金成本同步下降，市场风险偏好或改善，成交量有望放大。 2、外资或将回补：降息削弱美元，美元兑人民币与美元兑港币同步回落，一方面降低港股盈利换算的汇率损失（中资公司收入以人民币计价），另一方面 缓解资金外流压力，国际对冲基金开始回补此前低配的中国相关资产。全球流动性外溢使长线基金重新配置新兴市场，港股因"离岸+中国"双重属性或成为 再平衡首选，外资或回补仓位带动互联网、消费、医药等权重板块估值修复。 3、南向资金或将联动：美元走弱带动人民币反弹，离岸人民币流动性宽松，既减轻内地房企、平台公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current geopolitical changes are among the most disruptive since the establishment of Bridgewater, highlighting the importance of understanding geopolitical and macroeconomic paradigms for investment strategies [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance and Geopolitical Events - In the first half of 2025, macro hedge funds like Bridgewater's Pure Alpha achieved a 17% return, while EDL Capital's global opportunity strategy fund reached a 26% return [1]. - Significant geopolitical events have caused dramatic fluctuations in global capital markets, including the U.S. imposing tariffs leading to volatile stock market movements [2][12]. - The Nasdaq index experienced an 11.5% drop followed by a 12% rebound due to tariff announcements and subsequent delays [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Recent months have seen a series of major geopolitical events, including air conflicts between India and Pakistan, Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities, and U.S. military actions in the region [4][5][6]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel saw a rapid escalation and subsequent ceasefire, leading to significant fluctuations in oil prices [7][9]. Group 3: Investment Implications - The article discusses how geopolitical events have influenced asset prices, with gold being a standout performer, increasing over 30% in 2025, and the U.S. dollar index dropping to a three-year low [12][15]. - The shift in global economic and political order is prompting top investment institutions to focus more on geopolitical factors as key determinants of asset pricing [15]. - The upcoming closed-door session led by strategist Wang Kaiwen aims to equip participants with frameworks to analyze geopolitical impacts on investment strategies [20][24]. Group 4: Educational Initiative - The closed-door course on August 17, 2025, will cover five key lessons in geopolitical investment analysis and provide insights into future trends and asset allocation strategies [20][26]. - Participants will learn to construct a geopolitical analysis framework and review real-world cases to understand the impact of geopolitical changes on investment decisions [27][28].