全球金融体系连锁风险

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欧央行警告:美国资产遭严重质疑,恐引发全球金融体系连锁风险
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-21 11:59
Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) warns of unprecedented investor skepticism towards U.S. assets, highlighting potential systemic risks in the global financial system due to various factors including Trump's tariff policies and high asset valuations [1] - The ECB's semi-annual Financial Stability Assessment indicates a fundamental shift in investor behavior, moving away from traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, which could lead to significant changes in global capital flows [1][3] - The ECB emphasizes that the unpredictability of U.S. policies has led to higher risk premiums demanded by investors for U.S. assets, potentially undermining confidence in the dollar as a global reserve currency [1][3] Asset Valuation and Market Vulnerability - Despite some easing of tariff threats, asset valuations remain excessively high, contributing to significant market vulnerability and the potential for extreme volatility, particularly in U.S. tech stocks [2] - The ECB warns that investors may be underestimating the likelihood and impact of adverse scenarios, exacerbated by rising uncertainty affecting economic outlooks in Europe [3] Cryptocurrency Risks - The ECB highlights systemic risks posed by cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, due to their rising valuations and increasing ties to traditional finance, which could create large transmission channels for financial instability [4] - Concerns have been raised by policymakers regarding the U.S. support for cryptocurrencies and non-bank financial institutions, with warnings that this could sow the seeds for a future global crisis [4] Gold Market Concerns - The structural vulnerabilities in the gold market, combined with geopolitical risks, pose a significant threat to financial stability in the Eurozone [5] - A report indicates that the Eurozone's exposure to gold derivatives has reached €1 trillion, a 58% increase since November 2024, raising concerns about systemic risks due to opaque trading practices and reliance on leverage [6] Conclusion - The ECB's assessments underscore the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the potential for significant disruptions stemming from U.S. policy changes, high asset valuations, and emerging risks in cryptocurrencies and commodity markets [1][2][4][5][6]