金融经济讨论系列 美国联邦储备委员会，华盛顿特区，ISSN 19 36-2854（印刷版）ISSN 2767-3898（在线 版） 初始保证金：加密货币在未清算市场中的风险 安娜·阿米尔贾诺娃，大卫·林奇，安妮·郑 初始保证金：加密货币在未清算市场中的风险 安娜·阿米尔贾诺娃，大卫·林奇，安妮·郑 2026年2月11日 摘要：本文在ISDA标准化初始保证金模型（SIMM）框架下，对未清算市场中受加密货币风险因 素影响交易的初始保证金进行前瞻性分类。与加密货币是依赖于分布式账本技术（DLT）的数字 资产，并引发与传统风险类别如商品或外汇显著不同的金融风险的观点一致，我们发现，加密货 币最好归类为SIMM中的独立风险类别，该类别分为两大类——锚定和浮动（非锚定）加密货币作 为风险因素——并建议在加密货币风险类别中进行风险权重校准的方法，与SIMM中采用现有方法 保持一致。 I. Ⅰ 引言 针对2008-2009年的严重金融危机，这场危机凸显了未清算场外衍生品的系统性风险，导致了"对 覆盖 swaps 实体的保证金和资本要求"（第80）对其进行监管。 联邦登记簿 74840）——也称 为未清偿保证金规则（UMR）— ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) warns of unprecedented investor skepticism towards U.S. assets, highlighting potential systemic risks in the global financial system due to various factors including Trump's tariff policies and high asset valuations [1] - The ECB's semi-annual Financial Stability Assessment indicates a fundamental shift in investor behavior, moving away from traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, which could lead to significant changes in global capital flows [1][3] - The ECB emphasizes that the unpredictability of U.S. policies has led to higher risk premiums demanded by investors for U.S. assets, potentially undermining confidence in the dollar as a global reserve currency [1][3] Asset Valuation and Market Vulnerability - Despite some easing of tariff threats, asset valuations remain excessively high, contributing to significant market vulnerability and the potential for extreme volatility, particularly in U.S. tech stocks [2] - The ECB warns that investors may be underestimating the likelihood and impact of adverse scenarios, exacerbated by rising uncertainty affecting economic outlooks in Europe [3] Cryptocurrency Risks - The ECB highlights systemic risks posed by cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, due to their rising valuations and increasing ties to traditional finance, which could create large transmission channels for financial instability [4] - Concerns have been raised by policymakers regarding the U.S. support for cryptocurrencies and non-bank financial institutions, with warnings that this could sow the seeds for a future global crisis [4] Gold Market Concerns - The structural vulnerabilities in the gold market, combined with geopolitical risks, pose a significant threat to financial stability in the Eurozone [5] - A report indicates that the Eurozone's exposure to gold derivatives has reached €1 trillion, a 58% increase since November 2024, raising concerns about systemic risks due to opaque trading practices and reliance on leverage [6] Conclusion - The ECB's assessments underscore the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the potential for significant disruptions stemming from U.S. policy changes, high asset valuations, and emerging risks in cryptocurrencies and commodity markets [1][2][4][5][6]