全球risk off后的修复
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天风证券:全球risk off后的修复主线
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 23:40
Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are expected to show varied trends following recent adjustments, with U.S. stocks likely to maintain a volatile upward trajectory ahead of the midterm elections, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, improved economic expectations, and interest rate cut anticipations [1] Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stocks are projected to experience a period of volatile growth before the midterm elections [1] - Factors supporting this trend include a reduction in geopolitical conflicts and a positive shift in economic forecasts [1] - Anticipation of interest rate cuts is also contributing to the expected upward movement in the stock market [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury bond yields are expected to decline in the short term due to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] - However, uncertainties related to fiscal policies, tariffs, and geopolitical factors may lead to an increase in term and inflation premiums [1] Group 3: Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to rise initially before experiencing a decline in the short term, while the Chinese yuan may exhibit narrow fluctuations [1] - Gold prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term but are likely to return to an upward trend within the year [1] - Oil prices may see short-term upward volatility influenced by U.S.-Iran relations [1] Group 4: Domestic Stock Market - The domestic stock market is expected to experience volatility before the Spring Festival, with a potential "spring rally" following the holiday [1]