——这一幕真的有点"空气突然安静，然后美联储自己先破防了"的味道。 来源：华尔街情报圈 所有的目光转向了今晚美股的开盘和收盘——如果收涨，风暴暂缓。如果再跌（连美联储出手安抚都压不住的市场），市场就进入"没有护栏的波动时 代"。 今天我们发布了《环球市场策略：急震，急急如地震》，大跌不是"不合理"，而是"合理得让人后背发凉"。 1、暴跌开始了吗？现在全球市场所有的小跳、小震、小哆嗦——核心是判断框架已经换了。下跌只是暖场，真正的波动高潮还在后面。这份策略报告会 让你重新看到金融市场的结构性逻辑。 2、解读《中国股票五年计划》，并附上高盛长期看好中国的50只股票——不预测短期，用基本面选未来五年的赢家。 3、A股、港股 2026 全景展望：牛市会不会真的狂奔？我们给出清晰判断、逻辑链条，以及2026年点位预测。 美股开盘前两小时，不常出境的纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（拥有永久投票权）发表了讲话。 他表示，通胀上行风险有所减弱，就业面临的下行风险已经增强，仍然认为短期内有降息空间。 在其讲话后，交易员迅速将美联储12月降息概率的预期提高至50%以上（一天前还是27%）。 第一，他对通胀、就业、利率的看法与近期美联储的态 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of food items in CPI recorded a decline of -2.9%, narrowing the drop by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by -2.1% year-on-year in October, improving by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[16] - From July to October, the PPI year-on-year declines were -3.6%, -2.9%, -2.3%, and -2.1%, indicating a trend of monthly recovery[4] - The overall industrial product PPI decreased by -2.7% from January to October[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The rise in both CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest a potential need for further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[5] - The PPI is expected to continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving upstream prices[5] - Monitoring marginal changes in indicators such as food prices, oil prices, and coal prices is recommended[5] Group 4: Risks - Risks include potential underperformance in consumer recovery, unexpected economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[20]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment in oil prices is expected to result in a decrease of approximately 75 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of about 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per liter, effective from October 13 at 24:00 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Current Oil Price Trends** - The current rate of change in crude oil prices is at -1.37%, indicating a significant drop in international oil prices [1] - Domestic oil prices have not been adjusted for over a month and a half since the last decrease on August 26, with two previous adjustments being postponed [1] - **Historical Context** - Since the last increase on July 1, domestic oil prices have remained unchanged for over three months [1] - Year-to-date, domestic oil prices have experienced "six increases, seven decreases, and six postponements," resulting in a net balance of price changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil price is expected to decrease in October after a period of stagnation in September, with a projected reduction of 75 yuan per ton due to a significant drop in international oil prices [1] Price Adjustment Details - The oil price adjustment will take place on October 13 at 24:00 [1] - The current crude oil change rate stands at -1.37% after nine working days of the ten-day statistical period [1] - The anticipated decrease in oil price translates to a reduction of approximately 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per liter [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56% [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) surged above 20, indicating increased market fear, while the dollar index fell by 0.57%, oil prices dropped nearly 4%, and Bitcoin decreased by approximately 5.5% [3] - Gold emerged as the only asset gaining value during this sell-off, as investors shifted from "faith" to "safe haven" assets [4] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil is linked to growing skepticism about the AI bubble, with a potential for a larger market correction as investors rush to exit positions [4] - Systematic selling pressure is evident, with UBS warning that a 1% drop in the S&P could trigger around $20 billion in programmatic selling, escalating to $280 billion with a 3% decline [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6652, and analysts caution that a drop below 6600 could lead to forced selling from previously stabilizing hedges [4] Future Outlook - The market may face further declines, with analysts predicting a "Black Monday" following the recent downturn [4] - The recent "tweet shockwave" has raised concerns about trust in the market, potentially marking the beginning of a trust crisis [4] - Upcoming reports will address the implications of the AI bubble, the demand for gold, and the fate of a significant stock that reflects the broader Chinese capital market [6][7]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction continues to dominate global markets, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and 82% in December according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent meeting minutes indicate that most officials acknowledge inflation risks but agree on a moderate policy easing within the year to address economic slowdown and fiscal uncertainty [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying the release of economic data and increasing market reliance on central bank statements and market indicators [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Gold Prices - A temporary easing of safe-haven demand occurred following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to some funds exiting the gold market [1] - However, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reignited global risk aversion, causing fluctuations in gold prices as investors switch between different risk events [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and changes in global liquidity remain significant variables supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices have retreated from a historical high of $4059, currently hovering around $3950, with the RSI indicator indicating sustained buying momentum despite moving out of the overbought zone [2] - If gold can maintain above $3960, it will continue a high-level consolidation; a drop below $3900 could trigger a new round of corrections, with the next support level at $3819 [2] - A rebound above $4035 and a breakthrough of the $4060 resistance zone could lead to a target range of $4100 [2] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar is experiencing a short-term pullback but remains strong in the medium term, with limited rebound potential for non-dollar currencies [4] - Oil prices are driven by OPEC+ production policies and inventory data, with short-term volatility risks increasing [5] - Gold prices are temporarily under pressure due to profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven demand, but the medium-term bullish outlook remains intact, influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals and global political risks [5]

Core Insights - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have not significantly impacted commodity prices [1] - Any potential price support from the decline in U.S. interest rates may be offset by other factors, indicating a generally weak fundamental outlook for the commodity market [1] - Oil prices are expected to decline from now until the end of 2026 due to slowing demand growth and increased supply from OPEC+ [1] - The extent to which the Fed's rate cuts have been priced in by the market may limit any additional support for commodity prices and could even act as a resistance [1]

Group 1 - The next round of oil price adjustment will open on September 23 at 24:00, with the 19th round for 2025 [1] - Current international oil prices are roughly in line with the average price of crude oil during the cycle, indicating potential for domestic price adjustments [1] - If international oil prices continue to decline, there may be a chance for domestic oil prices to decrease; conversely, if prices rise, the extent of domestic price reductions will narrow [1] - The previous round of price stabilization resulted in a 40 yuan/ton increase, suggesting a high probability of price hikes in the upcoming adjustment, potentially marking the seventh increase this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors, including geopolitical premiums, high refinery crack spreads supporting high operating rates, and potential OPEC production increases, alongside downward expectations for refined oil demand [1] Group 1: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads are supporting high operating rates [1] - OPEC may continue to increase production, which could put downward pressure on oil prices [1] - Low inventory issues in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting the market [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a consensus on weakening supply and demand expectations in the medium term [1] - The potential for OPEC to push for a second phase of production increases during the upcoming meeting may further pressure oil prices [1] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a state of wide fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices are slightly rising as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with bullish sentiment prevailing [1] - Oil prices increased by over 3% yesterday, influenced by Trump's intensified pressure on Putin, raising questions about future market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 55% compared to 45% bearish [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bearish sentiment of 68% against 32% bullish [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 55% versus 45% bearish [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bearish sentiment of 56% compared to 44% bullish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bearish sentiment of 59% against 41% bullish [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bearish sentiment of 71% compared to 29% bullish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 55% against 45% bearish [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bearish sentiment of 74% compared to 26% bullish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 83% against 17% bullish [3] - The Euro/AUD pair reflects a bearish sentiment of 75% compared to 25% bullish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 73% against 27% bullish [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 70% compared to 30% bullish [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 74% against 26% bullish [3] - The USD/CAD pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 55% compared to 45% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 87% against 13% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 64% compared to 36% bullish [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 70% against 30% bullish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 58% compared to 42% bullish [4] - The NZD/USD pair reflects a strong bullish sentiment of 70% against 30% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 63% compared to 37% bullish [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 75% against 25% bearish [4]