来源：中新经纬 A股将迎来2026年首个交易日，今年能否延续强势行情？ 2025年，上证指数以"11连阳"收官。回看全年，上证指数涨18.41%，深证成指涨29.87%，创业板指涨 49.57%。 上交所发布的2025年上海股票市场统计表显示，截至2025年底，沪市总市值约64.78万亿元，较2024年 底增加约12.35万亿元；股票筹资额约1.04万亿元，同比增长343.64%，其中IPO筹资额813亿元，同比增 长148.75%；股票账户数3.99亿户，较2024年底增加2700万户。 深交所披露，2025年深市公司回购增持金额上限超1100亿元，分红持续超5000亿元；深市ETF总规模超 过1.79万亿元，同比增长79%；全年IPO公司48家，其中87.5%属于战略新兴产业；全年股票融资额1485 亿元。 值得注意的是，当地时间1月3日，美国空袭委内瑞拉首都并抓获了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子。招商 证券指出，从后续影响来看，短期油价走势或较为纠结。在美国抑制通胀的诉求下，油价可能下跌，利 好航空、炼化化工等油价敏感的下游板块。另外，美国行动较为快速的背景下，短期美元或较为强势， 黄金走势或较为纠结。同时 ...

在全球经济格局中，两大经济体正朝着相反的方向"行驶"：大洋彼岸的美国经济仍面临高通胀的"炙 烤"，企业成本与物价持续上涨；而中国的经济图景中，"通缩压力"与物价低位运行，成为政策制定者 需要应对的紧迫挑战。一"胀"一"缩"，这两种截然相反的现象，不仅深刻塑造着各自的经济走向，也对 全球经济稳定构成了复杂的影响。本文将深入剖析这两大经济体面临的困境根源、政策抉择与未来挑 战。 一、 美国的"通胀顽疾"：高物价背后的结构性难题 进入2025年，美国的通胀压力并未如预期般顺利消退，反而呈现出新的复杂态势，让美联储与普通家庭 倍感压力。 1. 通胀数据的"新高度" 根据美国劳工统计局的数据，2025年8月的消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.4%，年通胀率攀升至 2.9%，创下当年1月以来的最高水平，且连续数月高于美联储设定的2%长期目标。通胀并非全面上 涨，而是结构性突出：与民生息息相关的食品价格单月飙升0.6%，创下近三年来最大单月涨幅；油价 在短暂回落后又环比上涨1.9%。对于普通美国家庭而言，无论是超市购物还是驾车出行，生活成本都 在持续加码。 更值得警惕的是，衡量通胀广度的指标显示，占美国CPI指标72%的 ...

Group 1 - The New York Fed President Williams indicated a reduction in inflation risks and an increase in employment risks, suggesting potential for interest rate cuts in the short term, contrasting with the recent Fed stance [2] - Following Williams' remarks, traders raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to over 50%, up from 27% the previous day, signaling a significant shift in market expectations [2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a notable reversal, highlighting the Fed's awareness of the potential for a market crash if stocks did not rebound, prompting pre-market comments to stabilize investor sentiment [2] Group 2 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Sudden Shock, Urgent as Earthquake" suggests that recent market declines are not irrational but rather indicative of a structural shift in market dynamics, with further volatility expected [3] - The report includes an analysis of China's five-year plan and identifies 50 stocks favored by Goldman Sachs for long-term investment, focusing on fundamental strengths rather than short-term predictions [3] - The outlook for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is provided, with clear judgments and logical frameworks, including predictions for market levels [3] Group 3 - Insights into Bitcoin's volatility, oil price fluctuations, and the status of gold prices are discussed, indicating a deeper understanding of market movements [4]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of food items in CPI recorded a decline of -2.9%, narrowing the drop by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by -2.1% year-on-year in October, improving by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[16] - From July to October, the PPI year-on-year declines were -3.6%, -2.9%, -2.3%, and -2.1%, indicating a trend of monthly recovery[4] - The overall industrial product PPI decreased by -2.7% from January to October[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The rise in both CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest a potential need for further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[5] - The PPI is expected to continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving upstream prices[5] - Monitoring marginal changes in indicators such as food prices, oil prices, and coal prices is recommended[5] Group 4: Risks - Risks include potential underperformance in consumer recovery, unexpected economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[20]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment in oil prices is expected to result in a decrease of approximately 75 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of about 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per liter, effective from October 13 at 24:00 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Current Oil Price Trends** - The current rate of change in crude oil prices is at -1.37%, indicating a significant drop in international oil prices [1] - Domestic oil prices have not been adjusted for over a month and a half since the last decrease on August 26, with two previous adjustments being postponed [1] - **Historical Context** - Since the last increase on July 1, domestic oil prices have remained unchanged for over three months [1] - Year-to-date, domestic oil prices have experienced "six increases, seven decreases, and six postponements," resulting in a net balance of price changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil price is expected to decrease in October after a period of stagnation in September, with a projected reduction of 75 yuan per ton due to a significant drop in international oil prices [1] Price Adjustment Details - The oil price adjustment will take place on October 13 at 24:00 [1] - The current crude oil change rate stands at -1.37% after nine working days of the ten-day statistical period [1] - The anticipated decrease in oil price translates to a reduction of approximately 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per liter [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56% [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) surged above 20, indicating increased market fear, while the dollar index fell by 0.57%, oil prices dropped nearly 4%, and Bitcoin decreased by approximately 5.5% [3] - Gold emerged as the only asset gaining value during this sell-off, as investors shifted from "faith" to "safe haven" assets [4] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil is linked to growing skepticism about the AI bubble, with a potential for a larger market correction as investors rush to exit positions [4] - Systematic selling pressure is evident, with UBS warning that a 1% drop in the S&P could trigger around $20 billion in programmatic selling, escalating to $280 billion with a 3% decline [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6652, and analysts caution that a drop below 6600 could lead to forced selling from previously stabilizing hedges [4] Future Outlook - The market may face further declines, with analysts predicting a "Black Monday" following the recent downturn [4] - The recent "tweet shockwave" has raised concerns about trust in the market, potentially marking the beginning of a trust crisis [4] - Upcoming reports will address the implications of the AI bubble, the demand for gold, and the fate of a significant stock that reflects the broader Chinese capital market [6][7]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction continues to dominate global markets, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and 82% in December according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent meeting minutes indicate that most officials acknowledge inflation risks but agree on a moderate policy easing within the year to address economic slowdown and fiscal uncertainty [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying the release of economic data and increasing market reliance on central bank statements and market indicators [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Gold Prices - A temporary easing of safe-haven demand occurred following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to some funds exiting the gold market [1] - However, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reignited global risk aversion, causing fluctuations in gold prices as investors switch between different risk events [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and changes in global liquidity remain significant variables supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices have retreated from a historical high of $4059, currently hovering around $3950, with the RSI indicator indicating sustained buying momentum despite moving out of the overbought zone [2] - If gold can maintain above $3960, it will continue a high-level consolidation; a drop below $3900 could trigger a new round of corrections, with the next support level at $3819 [2] - A rebound above $4035 and a breakthrough of the $4060 resistance zone could lead to a target range of $4100 [2] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar is experiencing a short-term pullback but remains strong in the medium term, with limited rebound potential for non-dollar currencies [4] - Oil prices are driven by OPEC+ production policies and inventory data, with short-term volatility risks increasing [5] - Gold prices are temporarily under pressure due to profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven demand, but the medium-term bullish outlook remains intact, influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals and global political risks [5]

Core Insights - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have not significantly impacted commodity prices [1] - Any potential price support from the decline in U.S. interest rates may be offset by other factors, indicating a generally weak fundamental outlook for the commodity market [1] - Oil prices are expected to decline from now until the end of 2026 due to slowing demand growth and increased supply from OPEC+ [1] - The extent to which the Fed's rate cuts have been priced in by the market may limit any additional support for commodity prices and could even act as a resistance [1]

Group 1 - The next round of oil price adjustment will open on September 23 at 24:00, with the 19th round for 2025 [1] - Current international oil prices are roughly in line with the average price of crude oil during the cycle, indicating potential for domestic price adjustments [1] - If international oil prices continue to decline, there may be a chance for domestic oil prices to decrease; conversely, if prices rise, the extent of domestic price reductions will narrow [1] - The previous round of price stabilization resulted in a 40 yuan/ton increase, suggesting a high probability of price hikes in the upcoming adjustment, potentially marking the seventh increase this year [1]