Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56% [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) surged above 20, indicating increased market fear, while the dollar index fell by 0.57%, oil prices dropped nearly 4%, and Bitcoin decreased by approximately 5.5% [3] - Gold emerged as the only asset gaining value during this sell-off, as investors shifted from "faith" to "safe haven" assets [4] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil is linked to growing skepticism about the AI bubble, with a potential for a larger market correction as investors rush to exit positions [4] - Systematic selling pressure is evident, with UBS warning that a 1% drop in the S&P could trigger around $20 billion in programmatic selling, escalating to $280 billion with a 3% decline [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6652, and analysts caution that a drop below 6600 could lead to forced selling from previously stabilizing hedges [4] Future Outlook - The market may face further declines, with analysts predicting a "Black Monday" following the recent downturn [4] - The recent "tweet shockwave" has raised concerns about trust in the market, potentially marking the beginning of a trust crisis [4] - Upcoming reports will address the implications of the AI bubble, the demand for gold, and the fate of a significant stock that reflects the broader Chinese capital market [6][7]

外汇与美元： 美元短线回调但中期仍偏强，非美货币反弹可能有限。 能源与大宗商品： 油价仍受OPEC+产量政策与库存数据驱动，短线波动风险上升。 技术走势显示，金价在触及4059美元的历史高点后回调，目前在3950美元附近徘徊。RSI指标虽脱离超 买区，但依旧处于相对高位，显示买盘动能依然存在。若金价能稳守3960美元上方，将延续高位整理格 局；若跌破3900美元，则可能引发新一轮回调，下一支撑关注3819美元。若金价重新站稳4035美元并突 破4060美元阻力区，将再度有机会冲击4100美元目标区间。整体来看，当前调整属于阶段性修正，并非 趋势逆转。 黄金与贵金属： 建议重点关注金价在3900—4000美元区间的波动特征，密切跟踪避险资金流向。 近期，美联储的货币政策走向继续主导全球市场。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储10月与12 月降息25个基点的概率分别为95%与82%。最新会议纪要显示，多数官员认为通胀风险尚存，但普遍认 同在年内适度放松政策，以应对经济增长放缓与财政不确定性。美元指数在连续四日上涨后趋于平稳， 回落至99.40附近，为黄金带来一定支撑。与此同时，美国政府停摆进入第二周 ...

Core Insights - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have not significantly impacted commodity prices [1] - Any potential price support from the decline in U.S. interest rates may be offset by other factors, indicating a generally weak fundamental outlook for the commodity market [1] - Oil prices are expected to decline from now until the end of 2026 due to slowing demand growth and increased supply from OPEC+ [1] - The extent to which the Fed's rate cuts have been priced in by the market may limit any additional support for commodity prices and could even act as a resistance [1]

油价调整日历 9月23日24时，2025年第19轮油价调整窗口将开启。 当前，最新国际油价与周期原油均价基本持平。若后续国际油价继续下跌，周期油价跌幅有望扩大，国内油价或许能 迎来下调的转机；反之，若国际油价上涨，国内油价跌幅将进一步收窄。而且，考虑到上一轮周期油价搁浅带来的40 元/吨的涨幅影响，本轮调价油价上涨概率大，本轮调价或将迎来年内第7次上涨！ 来源：今日油价查询 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors, including geopolitical premiums, high refinery crack spreads supporting high operating rates, and potential OPEC production increases, alongside downward expectations for refined oil demand [1] Group 1: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads are supporting high operating rates [1] - OPEC may continue to increase production, which could put downward pressure on oil prices [1] - Low inventory issues in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting the market [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a consensus on weakening supply and demand expectations in the medium term [1] - The potential for OPEC to push for a second phase of production increases during the upcoming meeting may further pressure oil prices [1] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a state of wide fluctuations [1]

澳元/美元 36% 64% 澳元/日元 30% 70% 加元/日元 42% 58% 纽元/美元 70% 30% 纽元/日元 37% 63% 美元/离岸人 75% 25% 民币 香港恒生指数 55% 45% 标普500指数 32% 68% 纳斯达克指数 55% 45% 道琼斯指数 44% 56% 日经225指数 41% 59% 德国DAX40指 29% 71% 数 外汇 r 多头 空头 欧元/美元 55% 45% 欧元/英镑 26% 74% 欧元/日元 17% 83% 欧元/澳元 25% 75% 英镑/美元 27% 73% 英镑/日元 30% 70% 美元/日元 26% 74% 美元/加元 55% 45% 美元/瑞郎 87% 13% 黄金在市场等待美联储利率决议之际略微走高，当前多头情绪较为占优。特朗普加大对普京施压，油价昨日收涨超3%，后市情 绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次）。 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].

Group 1: Stock and Bond - Stock index long positions are recommended as data reflects China's economic resilience and market risk aversion eases [2] - Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly as market interest rates consolidate and Treasury bonds rebound narrowly [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Shanxi's mainstream steel mills limit crude steel production by about 6 million tons, and the supply of finished products may shrink under the "anti-involution" trend. The black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Market risk aversion rebounds due to Trump's tax increase letters, boosting the gold price. Gold is expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Group 4: Log - Log spot market prices are weak, with a 10-yuan decline in the Jiangsu market. Supply pressure eases, and the impact of log futures delivery on prices should be noted [5] Group 5: Rubber - Weather in Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas eases, but the natural rubber price remains under pressure as supply-demand contradictions are not significantly alleviated [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated reduction in US soybean planting area is limited, and the soybean production outlook is positive. With high imports and rising inventory, bean meal is expected to be weak [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - Oil prices face a callback risk, and PX, PTA, and MEC are affected by supply-demand changes and cost fluctuations [8] Group 8: Pig - The pig price may continue to rise in the short term, and southern China may lead a new round of price increases after July [9]

Group 1 - The global bond term premium is rising, reflecting investor concerns about future interest rate risks and economic policy uncertainties, with Japan's 10-year bond term premium increasing by over 40 basis points since early last year [1] - In Germany, the term premium has also risen over the past two years due to the need to absorb the impact of the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction and increased government stimulus plans [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that since late April, the market has begun to bet more aggressively on the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies, although any deterioration in U.S. economic growth and employment data could reignite growth concerns [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that while the U.S. economy is slowing, it has not reached alarm levels, with expectations of a moderate slowdown in the labor market maintaining job growth around 100,000 [2] - UBS economists highlight early indicators of a weak U.S. job market, with rising unemployment claims and predictions of only 100,000 new jobs in June [2] - The National Australia Bank suggests that increasing government spending beyond fiscal capacity may undermine market confidence in the U.S. dollar, contributing to its decline [2] Group 3 - Analysts from the Netherlands International Group state that the Bank of England's potential slowdown in quantitative tightening seems to support the British pound, reducing the risk of further depreciation [2] - The South Korean inflation rate is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's 2% target, allowing for a cautious monetary policy approach focused on financial stability [2] - South Korea's overall consumer inflation rate rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, slightly above market expectations, indicating stable underlying inflation pressures [2] Group 4 - Phillip Nova's analysis suggests that a weaker U.S. dollar may extend upward momentum in oil prices, despite the market already digesting production increase news [3] - Nomura's economists note that South Korea's strong exports and increased fiscal spending plans may alleviate concerns about economic growth, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting [3] - The median wage growth among major employers in the UK increased from 3.2% to 3.4%, with a significant impact on the service sector, while manufacturing was less affected [3]

Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, the situation in the Middle East, and climate-related issues remains high [1] - If oil prices remain stable, it is expected that the inflation rate in July may slow down [1] Economic Factors - U.S. tariff policies are contributing to economic uncertainty [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is also a significant factor affecting economic stability [1] - Climate-related uncertainties are impacting economic forecasts [1] Inflation Outlook - A stable oil price environment could lead to a deceleration in inflation growth rates in July [1]