转债周策略 20260228 3 月十大转债 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 28 日 3 月十大转债 美诺华/美诺转债: 创新管线 JH389 项目商业化持续推进 泰瑞机器/泰瑞转债: 国内中高端注塑机龙头之一，高端市场领域正追赶国外注塑机高 端企业 江苏华辰/华辰转债：变压器海外销售有望迎来新突破 友发集团/友发转债：新一轮供给侧改革中，公司预计加快完善焊接钢管全国布局和海 外布局 宇邦新材/宇邦转债：切入工业热管理赛道打造第二增长曲线 亚太科技/亚科转债：积极布局新能源汽车、航空航天、工业热管理、机器人等新兴领 域的产能储备与业务发展 颀中科技/颀中转债：境内少数掌握多类凸块制造技术并实现规模化量产的集成电路封 测厂商 瑞可达/瑞可转债：公司应用于数据中心的各类高速线缆产品市场需求旺盛 弘亚数控/弘亚转债：国内家具装备龙头，具有成熟的海外销售渠道 岱美股份/岱美转债：切入智能机器人领域 2026 年增量资金入市的进程仍将持续，年初大概率会演绎"春季躁动"行情，主要关 注科技、高端制造方向的投资线索。 周度转债策略 本周各股票指数普涨，转债相对承压，中证转债指数涨跌幅为-0.23%。 ...

广发证券：以史为鉴，A股将迎来"春季躁动"胜率最高的阶段，小盘风格占优 广发证券表示，历史看，2月份及春节前后是春季躁动日历效应最强阶段。市场高胜率、小盘风格占 优。以小盘指数为例，在春节到两会之间上涨概率为100%，在2月上涨概率为87.5%。在配置方向 上，"春季躁动"上涨方向并非是"炒小炒差"、与业绩无关。2019年以来，"春季躁动"涨幅与当年一季 报、一季报增速环比变化率的相关性逐步加强。参考26年年报预告及一季报前瞻，我们建议关注：存 储、锂电设备/材料、海外算力、非银(券商、保险)、计算机软件等行业，这些行业或维持景气预期、或 出现困境反转迹象。此外，一些产业趋势主题或者困境反转预期挂钩，那么即便没有一季报也会表现不 错，类似去年春季躁动的机器人。今年可能类似的方向包括字节产业链(春晚投流，对应AI应用和国产 算力)、机器人产业链、太空光伏等。 东方证券：新年连续两个交易日，市场量价齐升，交投信心明显提高 东方证券表示，从技术上来看，4160点~4170点是沪综指1月中旬以来的箱体上沿，昨日市场在该区域 出现明显回落，因此不排除未来几天多空展开争夺，对近期涨势较大的板块或个股可以适当减仓。 本文转 ...

2月24日，A股市场冲高回落，创业板指盘中一度涨超2%，截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%，深成指涨1.36%，创业板指涨0.99%。沪深两市成 交额2.2万亿，较上一个交易日放量2194亿。 综合市场消息面来看，今日A股大幅高开，是多重利好因素共振的结果： 春节假期期间，外围市场整体平稳向好，港股与富时中国A50指数稳中有升，为A股开盘营造了良好的外部环境。 国内方面，流动性保持合理充裕，节前逆回购操作有效维护市场资金面稳定，节后资金回流意愿增强，为市场上行提供资金支撑。 同时，宏观经济稳步复苏、产业政策持续落地，进一步提振了市场风险偏好，投资者对马年资本市场表现预期乐观。 盘面上，三大主线表现强势。 首先是周期股，油气开采、有色金属、化工等板块大涨。油气板块全天领涨，通源石油、中油工程、准油股份等十余股封板；贵金属、 有色金属板块拉升走高，湖南白银、白银有色封板；农药、化工、染料等集体走强，和邦生物、美邦股份等多股涨停。 其次是算力产业链。光模块、光纤光缆、MLCC、PCB等方向表现活跃，长江通信、风华高科、华工科技等多股封板。 最后是电力基建产业链。电网设备震荡上行，白云电器、保变电气等封板。 下跌方面，影视传 ...

A股迎来马年开门红，三大指数节后集体上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.87%，报4117.41点，深成指涨 1.36%，报14291.57点，创业板指涨0.99%，报3308.26点，科创50指数跌0.34%，报1465.37点。沪深两市 合计成交额22020.62亿元。市场超4000只个股上涨，其中109只个股涨停。 开源证券认为，春季躁动并非一次性走完，过去十年有6次在经历回调后走出第二波上涨，且第二轮上 涨往往比第一波更具赚钱效应，方向与当时市场主线强相关。 中信建投指出今年A股处于慢牛格局中，投资者做多热情高涨，前期在"主动降温"引导下指数完成了一 轮回调整固，节后有望开启新一轮上行。和以往不同的是，由于今年春节时间较晚，春节后两会前仅一 周的交易时间。两会期间则常出现"兑现行情"，重点关注细分产业政策超预期情况。 国金宏观指出，市场波动主要源于流动性与风险偏好变化，而非AI产业方向逆转。未来美股对业绩兑 现要求将更严苛，资本开支容忍度持续下降，波动大概率加剧，但科技股是否已经走到右侧仍需观察。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 午后化工（核心股）">磷化工（核心股）板块涨势扩大，云天化、六国化工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market excitement for 2026 has partially shifted to January, with a round of growth style realization before the festival, combined with regulatory easing and significant ETF outflows. It is expected that the overall index in February will mainly fluctuate, with a stronger performance anticipated after the festival. In this environment, a "structure-first, index-second" approach may be more suitable [1][8]. Group 1: Investment Focus Areas - **Technology Growth: AI + Humanoid Robots**: Focus on midstream components (gear reducers, servo motors, sensors, actuators), core materials, and some main body manufacturers. The resonance between the Spring Festival Gala and overseas world model progress may lead to a shift from "event-driven" to "scene landing" throughout the year. The computing chain includes storage chips, optical modules, PCB/IC substrates, and data center distribution and liquid cooling in power equipment, directly supporting the capital expenditure expansion of overseas cloud vendors. It is recommended to focus on large-cap leaders and some high-growth niche leaders while controlling overall valuation and position concentration to prevent short-term crowded trades and overseas volatility-induced pullbacks [2][9]. - **Cyclical Price Increases: Oil, Petrochemicals + Non-ferrous Metals + Building Materials/Chemicals**: Due to the rebound in oil prices and bulk commodity prices, marginal improvement in PPI, and the rhythm of the "14th Five-Year Plan" infrastructure commencement, it is suggested to pay attention to oil, petrochemicals, and oil and gas services. Additionally, focus on non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, steel building materials, and some chemical products with more sustainable price increases [3][10]. - **High Dividend Yield: Banks + Energy + Telecom/Public Utilities**: Before the festival, A-shares showed a clear preference for dividend and defensive sectors due to external disturbances and regulatory easing, with banks and food and beverage sectors being favored. After the festival, it may be beneficial to continue using high-dividend sectors like banks, energy, telecom, and public utilities as a base, which can hedge against overseas volatility and geopolitical risks while providing stable absolute returns in the context of macroeconomic stabilization and strong dividend yield and valuation attractiveness [4][11]. - **Domestic Consumption: Automotive Chain + Home Appliances + Travel Consumption**: Supported by the old-for-new policy and Spring Festival consumption data, the automotive and automotive electronics, home appliances, and white goods components benefit from the old-for-new policy and sales recovery. In the context of rising external demand and tariff uncertainties, these consumption directions, which are mainly driven by domestic demand and are policy-friendly, may exhibit both defensive and offensive characteristics [5][12].

马年第一个交易日（2月24日）开盘，最强的板块不是人工智能，也不是机器人，反而是油气板块。通 源石油开盘后1分钟，20%封死涨停板。整个油气开采板块集体暴拉，准油股份、中曼石油、山东墨 龙、洲际油气等纷纷涨停。 分析认为，当前，美伊关系紧张推高原油市场地缘风险溢价，布伦特原油价格自66美元/桶升至72美元/ 桶，净多持仓回升至两年高位，1月看涨期权成交量达历史峰值。市场担忧美伊冲突可能升级为全面战 争，影响霍尔木兹海峡原油供应，推动油价短期冲高。 那么，春季躁动第二阶段是否从油气开始呢？ 实物资产打头阵 长假期间，外围实物资产，如石油、金银等大幅拉升，助力今天A股相关板块表现。早盘，油气股全线 大涨，通源石油、准油股份、中曼石油、山东墨龙、洲际油气等纷纷涨停。石油ETF一度大涨7%。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 开年"第一强"有些超出预期！ 有色金属亦集体飙升，板块涨幅超过3%。晓程科技、白银有色（维权）、湖南白银、江南新材等涨停 或涨幅超过10%。中国中铁等有色概念股亦大幅飙涨。 国金证券认为，当前原油市场由地缘政治风险主导，美伊关系紧张推升布伦特原油净多持仓及 ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]

Group 1 - The report indicates that non-US assets have continued to exhibit a bullish atmosphere during the holiday period, with risk assets strengthening and stock indices in Europe, East Asia, and South America reaching historical highs [3][4][9] - The performance of overseas risk assets suggests that global liquidity remains abundant, with funds flowing into economies and stock markets expected to show marginal changes, making Chinese stocks attractive to global investors [3][9] - The report maintains the view from the previous report that a new upward cycle is anticipated, encouraging investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the market's rise in the Year of the Horse [3][53] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the 2026 Spring Festival, major stock indices such as the KOSPI in South Korea and the STOXX 600 in Europe reached new highs, with the KOSPI leading with a 5.48% increase [4][8] - Commodity markets showed a broad upward trend, with NYMEX crude oil surging by 5.94% and COMEX silver rising by 8.63%, indicating strong demand in these sectors [4][8] - The report notes that European corporate earnings have exceeded expectations, with the STOXX 600 index's price-to-earnings ratio at 18.3, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 27.7, suggesting a valuation advantage for European stocks [5][8] Group 3 - The report discusses the AI industry, noting that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is driven by the need for massive computing power in generative AI and large model training, with Samsung and SK Hynix dominating the global HBM market [9][48] - The report mentions that the performance of the AI sector is expected to continue to improve, with significant revenue projections for companies involved in AI, such as OpenAI, which anticipates over $280 billion in revenue by 2030 [49][51] - The report highlights the advancements in AI models and the competitive landscape, with major companies like Google and Anthropic releasing new models that enhance capabilities in various sectors [48][49]

Market Trends - After the Spring Festival, the market shows a pattern where small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks, with a higher probability of market gains over 5, 10, and 20 trading days[2] - The CSI 2000 index has a significant increase of 10.4% with a 91% probability of rising in the 20 trading days post-holiday[14] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors are expected to lead, with notable gains in computer, communication, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, steel, and textile sectors[2] - Consumer staples like food and beverage, banking, and household appliances are expected to lag behind[2] Spring Rally Dynamics - Historical data from 2016 to present indicates that 6 out of 10 spring rallies have led to a second wave of gains after an initial pullback[3] - The second wave of gains is often more profitable and closely tied to the prevailing market themes, which currently favor technology[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain confidence in the bull market, as the core drivers remain intact, with a suggested securities ratio of over 1.1 as a bullish signal[6] - Recommended sectors include military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, alongside materials benefiting from PPI improvements[33] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in industrial policy[7][34][35]

Group 1: Market Trends Post-Spring Festival - The Shanghai Composite Index shows a significant upward trend after the Spring Festival, with probabilities of increases over 5, 10, 20, and 30 days being 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60% respectively, and median gains of 1.64%, 1.32%, 9.45%, and 3.88% [1] - Over the past decade, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and defense industries have performed well in the month following the Spring Festival, with the computer industry leading in the last two years [1] Group 2: Industry Performance Data - Historical data shows varying performance across industries during the Spring Festival period, with coal, environmental protection, and agriculture showing notable gains in specific years, such as coal in 2016 with a maximum gain of 10.34% and agriculture in 2019 with a maximum gain of 19.78% [2] - The report indicates that the coal industry is expected to see a significant increase in production capacity in 2026, with an anticipated rise of 0.7 billion tons, while also highlighting a potential reduction in capacity by 1.5 billion tons due to policy changes [2] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in pig prices by 2026, driven by a reduction in breeding sow capacity, which is expected to improve profitability for leading pig farming companies [3] - The report emphasizes opportunities in the poultry sector, particularly for leading chicken farming companies, and highlights the growth potential in the pet market [3] Group 4: Defense Industry Outlook - The defense industry is poised for growth in 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and advancements in military technology, with a focus on precision-guided munitions, unmanned systems, and networked battlefield capabilities [4] - Key recommendations include investments in missile weaponry, new aviation equipment, unmanned systems, and commercial aerospace sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their strategic positions within these industries [5]