Group 1 - The report emphasizes the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, indicating that the duration of the war is uncertain and negotiations are unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term. The situation is expected to escalate, leading to sustained high oil prices and significant impacts on global supply chains, increasing market anxiety [3][4][7]. - The report suggests that the market is entering a phase of rebalancing, shifting from a growth-oriented approach to a focus on defensive and value stocks due to the pressures of high oil prices and concerns about the longevity of the conflict. This shift is expected to strengthen as long as the war continues [4][8]. - The report identifies a potential critical point for negotiations around late April, as the US aims to control the negative impacts of the war ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The report notes that both sides have diminishing resources for prolonged conflict, which could lead to a shift in focus back to growth stocks if negotiations progress [3][4][9]. Group 2 - Investment recommendations highlight that the high intensity of the conflict is not sustainable in the long term. There is a focus on defensive and value-oriented companies in the interim. If negotiations reach a critical point, oil prices may decline, leading to a recovery in inflation and a return of funds to the stock market, favoring growth companies [9]. - The report indicates that a decline in oil prices would benefit energy-intensive sectors such as aviation, shipping, chemicals, automotive, and home appliances, improving their profit margins. Additionally, lower energy costs could stimulate consumer spending in sectors like automotive, home appliances, and tourism, alleviating domestic demand pressures [9]. - The report anticipates that a weaker US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will likely strengthen the Chinese yuan, leading to increased inflows of foreign capital into technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors. Improvements in supply chains and foreign trade are also expected as global logistics recover [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of high volatility due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict and the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Different commodities show various trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [2][3]. - The Fed's interest - rate policy is influenced by inflation expectations and the Middle - East situation, which in turn affects the prices of various assets [2][4][5]. Summary by Categories Macroeconomy - Overseas, the Middle - East conflict between the US and Iran remains tense, with the US threatening and Iran remaining tough. Powell's dovish remarks have cooled the market's expectations of further interest - rate hikes. Oil prices are rising, and the stock market and precious metals show different trends. In the US, employment and PMI data are to be watched [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market is in a volatile pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly. The bond market is rebounding, and the focus is on the Middle - East situation, overseas risk appetite, and the release of annual reports [3]. Precious Metals - Powell's dovish signals have led to a rebound in gold and silver prices. However, the ongoing Middle - East conflict has increased inflation and interest - rate expectations, suppressing precious metals. The adjustment of precious metals is not over yet, and economic data and the Middle - East situation should be closely monitored [4][5]. Copper - The copper price is in a volatile state. The Fed's neutral - hawkish stance and the tense Middle - East situation have affected market sentiment. The supply at the mine end is tightening, and domestic terminal consumption is recovering. It is expected that the copper price will remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - The aluminum price has become strong again due to the attacks on Middle - East aluminum plants. The market is concerned about the supply shortage. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The official production - cut information of damaged aluminum plants needs to be focused on [8][9]. Alumina - The alumina price is in a range - bound state. The short - term supply pressure has decreased due to the maintenance of two electrolytic aluminum plants in Guangxi and Guizhou. The cost has increased due to the import - ore policy and rising freight. It is expected to be stable in the short term but face pressure in the long term [10]. Cast Aluminum - The cast - aluminum price is running strongly. The attacks on Middle - East aluminum plants have led to an increase in the aluminum price, driving up the price of ADC12. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of enterprises is high. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [11]. Zinc - The zinc price is oscillating strongly. Powell's dovish remarks have led to renewed expectations of interest - rate cuts, but the ongoing Middle - East conflict has offset some of the positive effects. The demand is expected to improve, and the cost support is strengthened. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [12]. Lead - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The cost support is rigid, but the supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the lead price is expected to remain low and volatile [13]. Tin - The tin price is in a weak rebound. The concern about the export - tariff increase has decreased, and the downstream replenishment has led to a decrease in inventory. However, the macro - tail risk still exists, and the rebound space is restricted. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [14]. Nickel - The nickel price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The Fed's policy stance and the Middle - East situation have affected the market. The cost support is strengthened, but the terminal consumption peak season has not fully emerged. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is likely to rise. The supply at the mine end is affected, the demand is supported, and the inventory is at a low level. Multiple positive factors coexist, and it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [17]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel - futures price is oscillating and rebounding. The spot demand is good, and China may receive steel - billet transfer orders due to the shutdown of Iranian steel mills. The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils has been relieved, and the terminal demand is weakly recovering. The steel price is expected to be volatile [18]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is oscillating at a high level. The overseas shipment has decreased, the arrival volume has increased, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is rising, and the ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19][20]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking - coal and coke futures are oscillating at a high level. The Middle - East situation has little impact on China's coke exports. The spot market sentiment is good, the production of upstream and downstream enterprises is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile at a high level [21]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean - meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly slower than last year, and the logistics cost has increased due to the Middle - East conflict. The domestic oil - mill soybean inventory has decreased, and the soybean - meal inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [22][23]. Palm Oil - The palm - oil price is oscillating and rising. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel - mixing policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the domestic palm - oil inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short term [24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing gold prices to rebound. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4521 per ounce, up 0.7% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4700, and the lower support level is $4400 [6] - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in silver prices. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 2.9%, closing at $69.8 per ounce. The lower support level is $65, and the upper resistance level is $77 [9] 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the rebound of precious metal prices are the same as above. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure. The inventory and position data are as follows: Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and be cautious in trading [11][13] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data charts of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), inflation expectation (10Y), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size and its weekly change, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [15][17][19] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in March was 52.4, the expected value was 51.3, and the previous value was 51.6. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 21 was 210,000, the expected value was 210,000, and the previous value was 205,000 [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump said on Thursday that at the request of the Iranian government, he would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days and that negotiations with Tehran were progressing "very smoothly." However, an Iranian senior official said the US proposal to end the conflict was "unilateral and unfair," lacking the minimum requirements for success and only serving the interests of the US and Israel. Diplomatic efforts have not stopped. - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that even if the current energy - shock - induced inflation only briefly exceeds the ECB's inflation target, moderate policy tightening may be needed [26] 3.6 Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg [13][28] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week [13][32] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (April 1), at 20:15, the change in US ADP employment in March; at 22:00, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in March. - On Friday (April 3), at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in US non - farm payrolls in March and the US unemployment rate in March [34]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, with a 2.12% increase observed during the week of March 20-27, 2026[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.44%, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.67%[3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with inflation expectations rising, exacerbating stagflation risks and delaying interest rate cuts[3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - As of March 27, 2026, the U.S. stock market fear index recorded 10.22, indicating a relatively pessimistic sentiment compared to historical lows[3] - The AAII investor sentiment index was at 49.79% on March 26, 2026, up 25.3% from pre-conflict levels but down 15.5% from the 2025 tariff period[3] - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at an 85.9% historical percentile, lower than the KOSPI200 (91.3%) and CAC40 (93.2%), but higher than the S&P 500 (80.8%)[54] Group 3: Risk Asset Performance - The implied volatility for gold, aluminum, and U.S. stocks is at historical high percentiles of 98.6%, 87.7%, and 96.2% respectively, indicating heightened market uncertainty[41][46] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 have dropped to the 6th percentile, while the NASDAQ's risk-adjusted returns fell to the 5th percentile as of March 27, 2026[51] - The Shanghai Composite's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 39% to 42% during the same period[51] Group 4: Capital Flows - As of March 25, 2026, foreign capital continued to flow into the Chinese stock market, with a net inflow of $14.3 billion, while domestic capital saw a net outflow of $6.8 billion[3] - U.S. equity markets experienced a significant outflow of $270.2 billion, while fixed income funds saw an inflow of $51 billion during the same week[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict situation has become the core focus of the market, and the gold price trend is significantly affected by relevant news. With the Middle - East conflict entering the second month and continuing to escalate, Pakistan plans to host US - Iran talks in the coming days to resolve the conflict, but the positions of the US, Israel, and Iran are all tough. Meanwhile, the Houthi armed forces have entered the fray and threatened the shipping safety of the Mandeb Strait, increasing the global energy supply risk. In a high - oil - price environment, the stickiness of inflation expectations is further highlighted. Coupled with the shift of market interest - rate cut expectations, the short - term trend of precious metals is still under phased pressure. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 950 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.73% to 1009.44 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 17763.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.15% to 4531.20 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.43% to 68.80 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.44%, and the US dollar index was 100.26 [2] News Events - The US Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing for Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, as early as the week of April 13. However, Warsh has not submitted his full - version manuscript yet [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagheri stated that the relevant proposal submitted by the US through mediators is extreme and unreasonable. The proposal involves Iran's basic rights, lacks good - will and a serious diplomatic attitude. Iran emphasizes relying on its own capabilities to ensure security and will use all means to prevent another attack. At the same time, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched missiles at Israel, opening a new front in the Middle - East war. The Yanbu Port and the Mandeb Strait, where Saudi Arabia's daily oil output exceeds 3.4 million barrels and can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, are within the range of Houthi missiles, posing a serious threat to the last buffer plan in the energy market [2] Strategy Suggestions - Due to the current geopolitical situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 950 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [3] Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4489.70 US dollars/ounce (up 2.58% from the previous day), the trading volume was 7.27 million lots (down 69.57% from the previous day), the open interest was 40.39 million lots (down 1.81% from the previous day), and the inventory was 986 tons (down 0.60% from the previous day) [5] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 4504.15 US dollars/ounce (up 1.07% from the previous day), the closing price of the active contract was 998.66 yuan/gram (up 0.27% from the previous day), the trading volume was 43.98 million lots (up 0.32% from the previous day) [5] - **SHFE Gold**: The open interest was 27.37 million lots (down 3.00% from the previous day), the inventory was 106.64 tons (down 0.09% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 43.737 billion yuan (outflow of 2.74% from the previous day) [5] - **AuT + D**: The trading volume was 81.69 tons (down 4.67% from the previous day), and the open interest was 239.47 tons (up 0.23% from the previous day) [5] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 69.77 US dollars/ounce (up 2.41% from the previous day), the open interest was 11.32 million lots (down 1.39% from the previous day), and the inventory was 10211 tons (down 0.08% from the previous day) [5] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 67.80 US dollars/ounce (up 0.75% from the previous day), the closing price of the active contract was 17489.00 yuan/kilogram (up 0.10% from the previous day), the trading volume was 130.73 million lots (up 8.38% from the previous day) [5] - **SHFE Silver**: The open interest was 45.27 million lots (up 0.80% from the previous day), the inventory was 371.80 tons (up 0.41% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 21.376 billion yuan (up 0.89% from the previous day) [5] - **AgT + D**: The trading volume was 293.09 tons (down 31.79% from the previous day), and the open interest was 2849.646 tons (down 0.79% from the previous day) [5] ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The iShare US gold ETF's holding increased by 0.07% to 474.67 tons; the GBS UK, PHAU UK, and SGBS Switzerland gold ETFs' holdings remained unchanged or increased slightly, while the GOLD UK gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.50% to 29.52 tons [67] - **Silver ETFs**: The SLV US silver ETF's closing price rose 4.39% to 63.44 US dollars, the holding remained unchanged at 15409.46 tons, the settled funds increased by 0.75% to 33.572 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 6.74% to 5230.07 million shares. The ETPMAG Australia silver ETF's holding decreased by 0.71% to 479.53 tons, while the PSLV Canada and CEF Canada silver ETFs' holdings remained unchanged [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran is recurring, and Trump's verbal intervention is losing effectiveness. Rising energy prices and increasing inflation have led to a decline in expectations of a Fed rate cut and even a shift towards rate hikes. The probability of a rate hike by traders has exceeded 50% for the first time, causing an increase in US bond yields and suppressing the valuation of global risk assets. In China, the narrowing of PPI and strong profitability of industrial enterprises at the beginning of the year, along with energy self - sufficiency and reserve advantages, have maintained export resilience. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Iran rejected the 15 - point cease - fire agreement proposed by the US and demanded that the US stop aggression. The OECD predicts that the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year, much higher than the Fed's expected 2.7%. China's innovation drug external authorization in the first three months exceeded $60 billion, approaching half of last year's $130 billion. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges expanded the scope of the "light - asset, high - R & D investment" recognition standard to main - board companies. The central bank's net open - market injection this week was 231.9 billion yuan [11]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: From January to February, industrial enterprises above a designated size achieved an operating income of 20.84 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%, and a total profit of 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The profit of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries increased by 2 times year - on - year, and that of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries increased by 1.5 times. National fixed - asset investment from January to February increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and excluding real - estate development investment, it increased by 5.2%, while real - estate development investment decreased by 11.1%. China's March LPR remained unchanged for 10 consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. Experts predict a 10 - 20 basis - point rate cut in the middle of the year. From January to February, China's fiscal expenditure was 4.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and fiscal revenue was 4.42 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in March was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.3 and the previous value of 51.6. The US import prices in February increased by 1.3% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, and export prices increased by 1.5% month - on - month, the largest increase since May 2022 [11]. - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: This week, both the 10 - year Treasury bond rate and the credit bond rate decreased slightly, the credit spread remained unchanged, and liquidity was abundant [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long term as the valuation is at a moderately low level and IM has a long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new rate - cut cycle is expected to start, and high - dividend assets are likely to benefit [13]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3913.72, down 43.33 points or 1.09%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13760.37, down 105.83 points or 0.76%; the ChiNext Index was at 3295.88, down 56.22 points or 1.68%; the CSI 300 was at 4502.57, down 64.45 points or 1.41%; the SSE 50 was at 2837.31, down 46.56 points or 1.61%; the CSI 500 was at 7737.61, down 22.42 points or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 7746.31, down 37.12 points or 0.48%; the Hang Seng Index was at 24952, down 325 points or 1.29%; the AH ratio was at 120.48, up 0.56%; the Dow Jones Index was at 45167, down 411 points or 0.90%; the Nasdaq Index was at 20948, down 699 points or 3.23%; the S&P 500 was at 6369, down 138 points or 2.12% [16]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: Details of the performance of various futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM in terms of points, trading volume, and price changes are provided [17]. 3.3 Economy and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%, in line with expectations and down from the previous value of 4.8%. The official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0, down from the previous value of 49.3, possibly due to the long and late holiday's impact on the supply side. In January - February 2026, the consumption growth rate was 2.8%, up from the previous value of 0.9%, as the "trade - in" fund quota slightly decreased and the public's consumption demand was concentratedly released at the beginning of the year. In January - February 2026, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 21.8% year - on - year, up from the previous value of 6.9%, with the drag on exports to the US repaired, exports to Africa growing by nearly 50%, and exports to the EU increasing by 27.8% year - on - year. In January - February 2026, the investment growth rate was 1.8%, up from the previous value of - 3.8% and 2.5 percentage points higher than the whole of 2025. Manufacturing investment increased by 3.1% year - on - year, real - estate investment decreased by 11.1%, and infrastructure investment increased by 11.4%. Among them, investment in transportation, warehousing, and postal services increased by 9.1% year - on - year, 10.3 percentage points higher than the whole of 2025; investment in water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management increased by 8.3% year - on - year, 16.7 percentage points higher than the whole of 2025; investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 13.1% year - on - year [35][38][41]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the Q3 2025 quarterly report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the growth rate rebounded by 1.22% compared with the semi - annual report. The year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89%, and the growth rate rebounded by 1.83% compared with the semi - annual report [44]. 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The weighted average R007 rate on March 27 was 1.4398%, up 1.89 basis points from last week. The central bank's net open - market injection this week was 231.9 billion yuan, with an injection of 474.2 billion yuan and a withdrawal of 242.3 billion yuan [53]. - **Credit Environment**: In February 2026, the M1 growth rate was 5.9%, up from the previous value of 4.9%; the M2 growth rate was 9.0%, the same as the previous value. With high - level fiscal efforts, corporate cash flow continued to improve, and the demand for foreign exchange settlement continued to be released as the exchange rate strengthened in February. From January to February 2026, the social financing increment was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.62 billion yuan, with corporate credit effectively filling the gap and strong external demand effectively offsetting the Spring Festival misalignment [61]. 3.5 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, about 2.1048 billion new shares of equity - biased funds were established, maintaining a normal level. The margin trading balance in the two markets decreased by 16.088 billion yuan this week, and the latest balance was 259.8731 billion yuan. The scale of each ETF decreased slightly [68][71]. - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 2.455 billion yuan in shareholding, and the net reduction was relatively stable. The number of IPOs was 0 [74]. 3.6 Valuation - **P/E Ratio (TTM)**: The P/E ratio of SSE 50 was 11.28, CSI 300 was 13.91, CSI 500 was 35.22, and CSI 1000 was 47.00. - **P/B Ratio (LF)**: The P/B ratio of SSE 50 was 1.22, CSI 300 was 1.45, CSI 500 was 2.42, and CSI 1000 was 2.54 [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Night trading of precious metals weakened. The ongoing stalemate in the US - Iran conflict, the rebound of crude oil prices, and the decline in market risk appetite put pressure on precious metals. The core drivers of this precious metal adjustment are the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process. Gold has a long - term upward trend, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For沪金2606, the previous day's closing price was 1013.96, yesterday's was 995.98, with a decline of 17.98 and a drop rate of 1.77%. For沪金2604, the previous day's closing price was 1011.04, yesterday's was 992.96, with a decline of 18.08 and a drop rate of 1.79%. For沪银2606, the previous day's closing price was 18111, yesterday's was 17472, with a decline of 639 and a drop rate of 3.53%. For沪银2604, the previous day's closing price was 18174, yesterday's was 17519, with a decline of 655 and a drop rate of 3.60% [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2606 were 170696, and the trading volume was 291301. The positions of沪金2604 were 28789, and the trading volume was 83441. The positions of沪银2606 were 219990, and the trading volume was 775118. The positions of沪银2604 were 37336, and the trading volume was 54014 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2606 and沪金2604 were - 6.21 and - 3.19 respectively. The spot premiums of沪银2606 and沪银2604 were - 180 and - 227 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1014.44, yesterday's was 989.77, with a decline of 24.67 and a drop rate of - 2.43%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 4505.31, yesterday's was 4381.91, with a decline of 123.40 and a drop rate of - 2.74%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 18121, yesterday's was 17292, with a decline of 829 and a drop rate of - 4.57%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 71.18, yesterday's was 68.09, with a decline of 3.09 and a drop rate of - 4.34% [2]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The current value of沪金2606 - 沪金2604 was 3.02, and the previous value was 2.92. The current value of沪银2606 - 沪银2604 was - 47.00, and the previous value was - 63.00. The current value of the gold/silver (spot) ratio was 57.24, and the previous value was 55.98. The current and previous values of the Shanghai Gold/London Gold ratio were both 1.02. The current value of the Shanghai Silver/London Silver ratio was 1.14, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 106,743 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 5795 kg to 370,299 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 39160 ounces to 31,906,473 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 293420 ounces to 328,547,950 ounces [2]. 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Market Indicators**: The current value of the US dollar index was 99.90, an increase of 0.26 from the previous value. The current value of the S&P 500 index was 6,477.16, a decrease of 114.74 from the previous value. The current yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.42%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous value. The current price of Brent crude oil was 100.10, an increase of 2.04 from the previous value. The current US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.9041, an increase of 0.0064 from the previous value [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF was 1,052.7 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF was 15,409.5 tons, a decrease of 104.2 tons from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 3263 to 159,869, and the net position in silver decreased by 2697 to 21,881 [2]. 3.5 Macro News - **Military Deployment**: The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East to provide more military options for Trump during peace talks with Iran. These troops may include infantry and armored vehicles and will join about 5000 Marines and thousands of paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division already deployed in the region [3]. - **Ship Incident**: A Thai - flagged cargo ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and ran aground near Iran's Qeshm Island [3]. - **Political Statements**: An Iranian source said Trump's remarks about Iran's "big gift" were political posturing. Iran and the countries of the ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz have formed a bilateral consensus on the "safe route" [4]. - **Peace Negotiations**: Iran has not asked the US to suspend attacks on its energy facilities and has not made a final response to the 15 - point cease - fire plan. The possibility of a successful cease - fire is still low [5]. - **Strike Delay**: Trump postponed the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, Eastern Time [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals faced downward pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 0.28%, Shanghai Silver down 0.85%, Platinum down 4.78%, and Palladium down 5.23% [1]. - In the short - term, the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has eased. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - Iran is considering the US cease - fire proposal but has no intention to negotiate. Trump said that the US - Iran negotiation has made progress, and the media reported that the US has submitted a 15 - point cease - fire plan to Iran [1]. - In February, US import prices had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained interest rates this month, stating that the Iran war makes the policy outlook highly uncertain. It is expected that inflation will rise, the unemployment rate will remain stable, and there will be one interest rate cut this year. Traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027 [1]. - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; Palladium's short - term demand remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly oscillating in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4503.30 per ounce, up 0.63% from the previous day and down 6.65% from last week; London gold was at $4564.55 per ounce, up 3.42% from the previous day and down 6.27% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 995.98 yuan per gram, down 1.77% from the previous day and down 6.22% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 989.77 yuan per gram, down 2.43% from the previous day and down 6.84% from last week [2]. - Other data: Comex gold open interest was 411388 lots, Shanghai Gold main contract open interest was 170696 lots, Gold T + D open interest was 45964 lots; LBMA gold inventory was 9210 tons, Comex gold inventory was 1000 tons, Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 105920 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1066.99 tons; Shanghai Gold registered warehouse receipts were 105 tons [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $71.45 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.27% from last week; London silver was at $73.17 per ounce, up 4.57% from the previous day and down 6.91% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17472 yuan per kilogram, down 3.53% from the previous day and down 2.85% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 17292 yuan per kilogram, down 4.57% from the previous day and down 3.88% from last week [4]. - Other data: Comex silver open interest was 114758 lots, Shanghai Silver main contract open interest was 3299850 lots, Silver T + D open interest was 2872224 lots; LBMA silver inventory was 27065 tons, Comex silver inventory was 10227 tons, Shanghai Silver inventory was 370 tons, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory was 301 tons, and the total visible inventory was 37955 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 9301 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings were 15513.67 tons; Shanghai Silver registered warehouse receipts were 362495 kilograms [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6][7]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day and down 3.47% from last week; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day and down 0.66% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day and down 1.75% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day and down 1.82% from last week [7]. - Other data: NYMEX platinum open interest was 34868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and down 5.91% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 7239 lots [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day and down 5.37% from last week; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and down 2.97% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day and down 3.73% from last week [8]. - Other data: NYMEX palladium open interest was 14847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and up 0.53% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and up 19.79% from last week; CFTC managed - fund net long position was - 362 lots [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit was 3.75%, discount rate was 3.75%, reserve balance interest rate was 3.65%, Fed total assets were $67071.04 billion, M2 year - on - year growth was 4.88%, 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.62%, US dollar index was 99.64, US Treasury yield spreads (3 - month to 10 - year) was - 0.11, US Treasury yield spreads (2 - year to 10 - year) was - 0.60, US - EU yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 1.74, US - China yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 3.05 [9]. - US inflation data: CPI year - on - year was 2.40%, CPI month - on - month was 0.50%, core CPI year - on - year was 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month was 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year was 2.83%, core PCE price index year - on - year was 3.06%, 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.40%, 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.20 [9]. - US economic growth data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.10%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 0.70, unemployment rate was 4.40%, non - farm payrolls monthly change was - 9.20 million, labor force participation rate was 61.90%, average hourly wage growth was 3.80%, weekly working hours were 34.30, ADP employment was 6.30 million, initial jobless claims were 20.50 million, job openings were 711.00 million, Challenger job cuts were 4.83 million [9]. - US real estate market data: NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 409.00 million units, new home sales were 48.00 million units, new home starts were 104.30 million units [9]. - US consumption data: Retail sales year - on - year growth was 2.08%, retail sales month - on - month growth was 0.03%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.25%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month growth was 0.38%, personal savings as a percentage of disposable income was 4.50 [10][11]. - US industrial data: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 1.44%, industrial production index month - on - month growth was 0.15%, capacity utilization rate was 76.29%, new orders for durable goods were $792.65 billion, new orders for durable goods year - on - year growth was 5.34% [11]. - US trade data: Exports year - on - year growth was 9.68%, exports month - on - month growth was - 17.23%, imports year - on - year growth was - 26.33%, imports month - on - month growth was - 2.30, trade balance was - $54.5 billion [11]. - US economic survey data: ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.40, ISM services PMI was 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.40, Markit services PMI was 51.10, University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 55.50, small business optimism index was 98.80, US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's was 2308.50 tons, the US's was 8133.46 tons, and the world's was 36458.24 tons [11]. - IMF foreign exchange reserve proportion: US dollar was 56.32%, euro was 21.13%, RMB was 2.12%, global was 25.94% [11]. - Gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio: China's was 8.34%, the US's was 81.98% [11]. - Geopolitical risk index was 335.15, VIX index was 25.33, CRB commodity index was 356.41, offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8943 [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 375 - 400 range in April 2026 is 93.8%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest - rate ranges gradually increases [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are oscillating and consolidating. Trump's signal of conflict mitigation, the decline in crude oil prices, and the repair of risk appetite have driven the rebound of precious metals. The core drivers of this precious metal adjustment are the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations and the double suppression of liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the continuous process of de - dollarization. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金 2606 and 沪金 2604), yesterday's closing prices were 1013.96 and 1011.040 respectively, with price increases of 34.16 and 33.760, and price increase rates of 3.49% and 3.45%. The trading volumes were 317182 and 139575, and the open interests were 169532 and 40987. - For silver futures (沪银 2606 and 沪银 2604), yesterday's closing prices were 18111 and 18174 respectively, with price increases of 1026 and 979, and price increase rates of 6.01% and 5.69%. The trading volumes were 967928 and 110528, and the open interests were 214737 and 47438 [2] Spot Market - For gold spot (上海黄金 T + D), yesterday's closing price was 1014.44, with a price increase of 36.45 and a price increase rate of 3.73%. For London gold, yesterday's closing price was 4505.31, with a price increase of 33.29 and a price increase rate of 0.74%. - For silver spot (上海白银 T + D), yesterday's closing price was 18121, with a price increase of 955 and a price increase rate of 5.56%. For London silver, yesterday's closing price was 71.18, with a price decrease of 0.10 and a price decrease rate of - 0.14% [2] Inventory - The current inventory of gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 106,743 kilograms, with no change from the previous value. The current inventory of silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 376,094 kilograms, an increase of 10171 kilograms from the previous value. The COMEX silver inventory is 331,451,807 troy ounces, a decrease of 638687 troy ounces from the previous value [2] Related Derivatives - The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF is 1,052.4 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 15,513.7 tons, with no change from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 159,869, a decrease of 3263 from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 21,881, a decrease of 2697 from the previous value [2] Macro Information - There are multiple geopolitical events related to the Iran - US conflict, including statements from Iranian and US officials regarding cease - fire proposals, negotiation possibilities, and military actions. For example, Iran has put forward five conditions for a cease - fire, and the US has made various statements about the end of the war and negotiation plans [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the global energy supply, with a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as inflation expectations and geopolitical risks [6][7]. - Different sectors in the market show various trends. For example, in the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply - demand relationships and price trends for different products; in the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors like the Middle - East situation and supply - demand balance; in the financial market, A - share markets have certain investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain [11][15][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 26, 2026, compared with March 25, 2026, among chemical products, methanol had the largest increase of 1.942% (from 3,089.00 to 3,149.00), and benzene had the largest decrease of 1.217% (from 10,105.00 to 9,982.00) [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **Middle - East Situation**: The attack on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities. Iran has retaliated, and the conflict has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries [6]. - **Fed's Decision**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a more conservative approach to future interest rate cuts, reflecting a cautious stance in the face of multiple risks [7]. - **China - US Relations**: China and the US will continue to communicate about Trump's visit to China [8]. - **Land Policy**: China is conducting a second - round pilot project to extend land contracts for another 30 years, emphasizing the protection of collective ownership and the prevention of "non - agricultural" and "non - grain" use of land [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under short - term supply pressure, but the international market has a tightening supply expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of long - term contracts at low prices, with a support level of 5400 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 5450 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a weak - oscillating trend. The supply pressure may increase in the short term, and the support level is in the range of 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton [11]. - **Peanut**: The peanut price is in a high - level oscillation. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with a resistance level around 8200 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The pig price is declining. The supply is sufficient, and the market is pessimistic. It is advisable to reduce short positions [11][13]. - **Egg**: The egg price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is sufficient, but there is also support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct intraday operations [13]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to conduct intraday range operations [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in a strong - oscillating trend. The supply is slightly affected by the import quota, and the demand is improving. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level around 15300 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is rising, and there is an expectation of increased exports. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - term contract correction [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is stable with a slight increase, and the first - round price increase of coke has not been responded to by steel mills. The price is in an oscillating adjustment [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper is recovering, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, with a resistance level in the 4220 - 4230 area and a support level of 4180 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue high - level consolidation in the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver are rising due to factors such as the tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's interest - rate cut signal. They are in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to risks [15][17]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are following the market correction. It is recommended to wait patiently for the price to stop falling and stabilize [17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic supply of alumina is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips and be vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market's supply - demand structure is improving, but the steel price is slightly under pressure in the short term and is expected to have a small - scale oscillating adjustment [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys are strong, mainly due to the energy premium caused by the geopolitical conflict. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips, but be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has broken through the previous high. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on price corrections, with a resistance level of 161500 yuan and a support level of 158000 yuan [19]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 25, A - share indexes rose, and different stock index options showed different trends in volume and open interest. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can take corresponding strategies according to price changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: On March 25, the three major indexes oscillated and rose. The A - share market has investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain. It is advisable to control positions and participate in the rebound [19][22].