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广发证券:高耗能用电增速分化 期待火电业绩持续高增
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 01:20
Group 1 - The overall electricity consumption growth rate remained stable in April, with significant contributions from the coal and mining sectors, while non-metal products and electrical machinery continued to show weakness [1] - In April, the electricity consumption growth rates for different sectors were +4.7% for the whole society, +13.8% for the secondary industry, +3.0% for the tertiary industry, +9.0% for urban residents, and +7.0% for rural residents [1] - The installed capacity of photovoltaic power increased significantly by 45.2 GW in April, with a cumulative total of 104.9 GW year-to-date, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 2 - The decline in market-based electricity prices in Guangdong and Jiangsu since 2025 has been significant, with Jiangsu's June electricity price down by 9.72 cents/kWh year-on-year [2] - The latest price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 is 611 RMB/ton, a decrease of 275 RMB/ton year-on-year, indicating a notable drop in energy prices [2] - The performance of thermal power is expected to remain strong due to lower coal prices, which are shaping the cost structure for Q2 and the entire year [3] Group 3 - The management of market capitalization and electricity reform is strengthening, with measures to stabilize expectations, reduce impairments, and enhance dividends being implemented [3] - The growth in renewable energy sources is contributing to an increase in return on equity (ROE) for green electricity, indicating a positive trend for profitability in the sector [3]