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华金证券:A股可能已开启全面慢牛趋势 短期建议继续逢低配置科技成长和周期
智通财经网· 2025-08-02 10:41
Core Viewpoint - Current A-shares are poised to enter a comprehensive slow bull market, driven by economic recovery, increasing dividend scale and rates, and sustained liquidity [1][3][4] Economic and Profitability Trends - The economic and profitability fundamentals in China are on a continuous recovery trend, which is essential for the potential slow bull market [1][3] - Short-term economic expectations may have declined, but medium-term recovery is anticipated [4] Dividend and Liquidity Factors - A-shares are experiencing an increase in dividend scale and rates, which supports the slow bull market outlook [1][3] - Liquidity remains accommodative, with expectations of continued inflows into A-shares [4] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Market sentiment and valuation levels are currently neutral, which is a condition for the potential transition to a comprehensive slow bull market [3][4] - The recent major policy announcements have led to a stabilization period in policy, impacting market sentiment [3] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Short-term investment strategy suggests focusing on technology growth and cyclical sectors, with an emphasis on sectors benefiting from policy support and high growth potential [1][4] - Recommended sectors for low-cost positioning include AI applications in computing and media, communication (computing power), electronics (semiconductors), military, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Additional sectors expected to benefit from anti-involution policies and improving expectations include new energy, non-ferrous metals, express delivery, and chemicals [1][4]