Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Fund Position Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to estimate the fund positions by simulating the complete stock holdings of public funds based on disclosed top 10 heavy stocks and industry allocation information[8][9][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Obtain the top 10 heavy stocks from the quarterly fund report and the top 10 shareholders from the listed company quarterly report[8][9]. - **Step 2**: Use the industry allocation information from the fund quarterly report and the complete stock holdings from the latest semi-annual and annual reports to simulate the non-heavy stock holdings[10]. - **Step 3**: Assume the types of non-heavy stocks remain unchanged across periods, and adjust the weights proportionally based on the previous period's non-heavy stock holdings to simulate the current period's non-heavy stock holdings[10]. - **Step 4**: Combine the simulated non-heavy stock holdings with the disclosed heavy stock holdings to estimate the complete stock holdings of the fund[8][10]. - **Step 5**: Use weighted least squares to estimate the fund's allocation in large-cap and small-cap combinations based on the fund's daily returns and the daily returns of large-cap and small-cap indices[12]. - **Step 6**: Monitor the fund's positions daily and analyze the average style changes from three dimensions: large/small-cap allocation, market value exposure, and industry allocation[12]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed and timely estimation of fund positions, allowing for daily monitoring and analysis of fund style changes[12]. Model Backtesting Results - **Fund Position Estimation Model**: - **Ordinary Stock Fund**: Median position 89.38%, increased by 0.06% compared to last week[15]. - **Partial Equity Hybrid Fund**: Median position 87.57%, decreased by 0.29% compared to last week[15]. - **Large-cap Combination**: Ordinary stock fund position decreased by 0.86%, partial equity hybrid fund position decreased by 1.40%[15]. - **Small-cap Combination**: Ordinary stock fund position increased by 0.92%, partial equity hybrid fund position increased by 1.12%[15]. - **Position Percentile**: Ordinary stock fund at 68.67%, partial equity hybrid fund at 81.54% since 2016[15]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Fund Style Monitoring Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to monitor the style changes of public funds by estimating their positions in large-cap and small-cap combinations[12]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Obtain the simulated complete stock holdings of public funds based on the fund position estimation model[12]. - **Step 2**: Use weighted least squares to estimate the fund's allocation in large-cap and small-cap combinations based on the fund's daily returns and the daily returns of large-cap and small-cap indices[12]. - **Step 3**: Monitor the fund's positions daily and analyze the average style changes from three dimensions: large/small-cap allocation, market value exposure, and industry allocation[12]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a comprehensive and timely monitoring of fund style changes, allowing for detailed analysis of fund behavior[12]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Fund Style Monitoring Factor**: - **Ordinary Stock Fund**: Stock position 89.4%, small-cap position 48.0%, large-cap position 41.4%[14]. - **Partial Equity Hybrid Fund**: Stock position 87.6%, small-cap position 53.4%, large-cap position 34.2%[14].