公募REITs一级发行

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2025公募REITs一级发行的八个特征
HTSC· 2025-08-26 08:17
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since the end of June 2025, the REITs secondary - market heat has cooled, but the primary - market sentiment remains strong, showing eight characteristics: supply slowdown, asset diversification, low subscription ratio, high post - listing gains, difficulty in obtaining strategic allocation, no offline lock - up period, narrowing regulatory valuation reduction, and opening of the upper limit of the inquiry range. Primary projects still have relative cost - effectiveness, the subscription ratio is expected to remain low, post - listing gains may decline, and new - issue strategy should focus on fundamentals, while new assets may have a certain premium [1]. - The primary issuance speed has slowed down, asset types are becoming more diverse, REITs are scarce, the subscription ratio is low, and post - listing gains are significant. However, the valuation reduction amplitude in the exchange's feedback response draft has narrowed, the inquiry range has widened, and the subscription price is close to the upper limit. It is expected that the post - listing gains will narrow, and new - issue returns will show a convergence trend [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Eight Characteristics of 2025 Public Offering REITs Primary Issuance 1. Primary issuance speed slows down - China's public offering REITs pilot officially started in 2020, and a "first - issuance + expansion" mechanism has been gradually established. In 2025, from January to August, 15 public offering REITs were listed, with a total of 29.884 billion yuan, and 2 expansion projects were completed, with 2.669 billion yuan. The overall issuance progress is slower than that of 2024 [10][11]. 2. Asset types become more diverse - The current underlying assets involve eight categories: municipal environmental protection, affordable rental housing, warehousing and logistics, industrial parks, highways, energy, consumption, and data centers. In August 2025, two new data center REITs were listed, further enriching the underlying asset types [14]. 3. Low subscription ratio - From 2021 - 2025, the average offline effective subscription ratios were 12.27%, 1.26%, 43.92%, 42.86%, and 0.85% respectively, and the average public effective subscription ratios were 5.50%, 1.07%, 37.96%, 35.43%, and 0.19% respectively. The low subscription ratio is related to market conditions and the scarcity of REITs [15]. 4. High post - listing gains - Due to the significant price difference between the primary and secondary markets, the post - listing gains of REITs are considerable. In 2025, the average first - day listing gain is 26.86%, and the average first - 5 - day gain is 33.63%. The high - gain situation on the first day further reduces the subscription ratio [16]. 5. Active strategic allocation, extended lock - up period, and active participation of securities firms' proprietary business - It is difficult to obtain strategic allocation quotas, and the lock - up period has been extended from 1 year to 2 - 3 years. Securities firms' proprietary business participates actively, followed by fund special accounts and insurance funds. Insurance and industrial capital are more cautious about the extended lock - up period. By underlying asset type, insurance funds participate more in the strategic allocation of affordable rental housing, warehousing and logistics, and data centers [21][23]. 6. Removal of the offline partial lock - up period, and insurance funds become the largest offline institutional investors - Recently, 9 newly listed REITs have cancelled the offline partial lock - up period, and Southern SF REIT has adjusted the trading share ratio limit to 50%. In 2025, insurance funds (7.48% of the total share) have surpassed securities firms' proprietary business (4.49%) to become the largest institutional investors [29]. 7. Narrowing of the valuation reduction amplitude in the exchange's feedback response draft - In 2025, the median REITs valuation adjustment is about - 6.04%, a 4.81 - percentage - point recovery compared to 2024. The valuation reduction amplitudes of most industries such as industrial parks, energy, and consumption have narrowed [33]. 8. Opening of the upper and lower limits of the inquiry range, and the subscription price is close to the upper limit - In June 2025, under regulatory guidance, the upper limit of the inquiry range for newly issued REITs was raised to 25%. The average width of the inquiry range in 2025 for 4 projects after Huadian Clean Energy is significantly widened to over 50%, and the subscription price is mostly above 90% of the inquiry range [38]. II. Public Offering REITs New - Issue Return Calculation - New - issue returns are calculated as: subscription ratio * post - listing gains - capital cost. Historically, the absolute value of offline new - issue returns mostly does not exceed 0.5%. In 2025, the average offline new - issue return is 0.25%, and the average public new - issue return is only 0.05%. Public new - issue returns are mostly lower than offline ones, mainly due to lower public subscription ratios, more capital occupation costs, fewer allocated shares, and a 0.4% subscription fee [4][50]. III. Future Opportunities in the Primary Market - It is expected that the market size will reach 250 billion yuan by the end of this year. Primary projects still have cost - effectiveness compared to secondary ones. New - issue returns are expected to show a convergence trend. Future primary new - issue participation should focus more on asset fundamentals, especially for public investors. New asset types may have a certain valuation premium and can be focused on [5][53][54].