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今世缘(603369):25Q2释放压力寻求长期高质量成长
Guotou Securities· 2025-09-15 14:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 51.65 CNY, corresponding to a 22.05X valuation for 2025 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 6.95 billion CNY, down 4.84% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.23 billion CNY, down 9.46% year-on-year [1][2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 1.85 billion CNY, down 29.73% year-on-year, and net profit at 585 million CNY, down 37.03% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on long-term quality growth by enhancing market penetration in domestic towns and expanding the production scale of premium liquor [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown by product category shows a decline in the Special A+ category by 7.37% to 4.31 billion CNY, while the Special A category saw a slight increase of 0.74% to 2.23 billion CNY [2]. - Revenue from domestic sales was 6.25 billion CNY, down 6.07% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province increased by 4.78% to 628 million CNY [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was stable at 72.81%, with a slight decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin fell to 31.58%, down 3.69 percentage points due to increased expense ratios [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to experience revenue growth rates of -8.4%, 5.7%, and 8.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of -13.9%, 7.3%, and 11.3% for the same years [4][5].