Core Viewpoint - Airline stocks collectively declined, with significant drops observed in major airlines such as China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines, indicating a challenging market environment for the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, China Southern Airlines (600029) fell by 4.93% to HKD 3.86, Air China (601111) decreased by 4.34% to HKD 5.29, China Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped by 2.6% to HKD 3, and Capital Airport (00694) declined by 1.43% to HKD 2.75 [1] - The report from Cathay Securities highlighted a recovery in commercial demand year-on-year for April and May, which supported airlines in reducing fuel costs during the off-peak season, leading to a significant reduction in losses for Q2 [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - Unexpected weakness in commercial demand during July and August resulted in a lack of profitability during the summer travel season, despite a projected year-on-year increase in summer profits due to the offsetting effects of falling ticket prices and oil prices [1] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of commercial demand after the important October meetings, with initial signs of strong demand in September potentially indicating that the summer's unexpected weakness may be temporary [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - If the recovery in commercial demand proves sustainable, it is anticipated that the profit center for airlines will significantly rise starting in 2026, with state-owned airlines in China expected to benefit from reduced internal competition [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is expected to continue controlling flight schedule growth for the winter season of 2025/26, which, along with low-price management during the off-peak season, will help airlines significantly reduce losses and potentially achieve profitability for the entire year of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation stocks have collectively declined, with significant drops observed in major airlines, while a report indicates a mixed outlook for demand recovery and profitability in the upcoming months [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Southern Airlines (01055) fell by 4.93%, trading at 3.86 HKD [1] - Air China (00753) decreased by 4.34%, trading at 5.29 HKD [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped by 2.6%, trading at 3 HKD [1] - Capital Airport (00694) declined by 1.43%, trading at 2.75 HKD [1] Group 2: Demand and Profitability Outlook - From April to May, commercial demand showed a year-on-year recovery, supporting airlines in reducing fuel costs during the off-peak season, leading to a significant reduction in losses for Q2 [1] - However, unexpected weakness in commercial demand during July to August resulted in a lack of profitability during the summer travel season [1] - Despite the pressure from reduced commercial demand, a decline in ticket prices and oil prices is expected to offset losses, with summer travel profitability still projected to increase year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of commercial demand after the important October meetings, with initial signs in September indicating a strong demand that may validate the previous unexpected weakness as a temporary issue [1] - If the recovery in commercial demand proves sustainable, a significant upward shift in airline profitability is anticipated starting in 2026 [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is expected to continue controlling flight schedule growth for the winter season of 2025/26, which, along with low-price management during the off-peak season, will help airlines significantly reduce losses and potentially achieve profitability for the entire year of 2025 [1]