10月10日，中国物流与采购联合会和林安物流集团联合调查发布数据显示，2025年9月份，中国公路物 流运价指数为105.1点，环比回升0.01%，同比回升0.6%。从月内看，第一周运价指数环比回升，第二周 运价指数总体平稳，第三、四周运价指数环比回落。 分车型指数看，各车型指数环比趋于平稳，同比去年涨跌互现。以大宗商品及区域运输为主的整车指数 为105.6点，与8月份基本持平，比上年同期回升0.8%。零担指数中，零担轻货指数为102.6点，比8月份 回升0.01%，比上年同期回落0.3%；零担重货指数为105.6点，比8月份回升0.01%，比上年同期回升 0.9%。 中国物流信息中心分析师高帅在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，综合来看，9月份经济运行稳中向 好，公路运输市场呈现旺季开局平稳、指数稳中趋升态势。一方面需求端持续回暖，一系列扩内需政策 成效持续释放，叠加工业生产旺季、消费品市场回暖以及电商大促备货，市场活跃度有所提升。另一方 面，9月份车辆运输专项治理行动进入重点治理阶段，运输成本相较前期预计小幅提高，运力供给结构 有所调整。在传统旺季的需求支撑和多重影响因素带动下，9月份公路运输市场供需平衡格局 ...

环比回升0.01%，同比回升0.6% 中国物流信息中心分析师高帅在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，综合来看，9月份经济运行稳中向 好，公路运输市场呈现旺季开局平稳、指数稳中趋升态势。一方面需求端持续回暖，一系列扩内需政策 成效持续释放，叠加工业生产旺季、消费品市场回暖以及电商大促备货，市场活跃度有所提升。另一方 面，9月份车辆运输专项治理行动进入重点治理阶段，运输成本相较前期预计小幅提高，运力供给结构 有所调整。在传统旺季的需求支撑和多重影响因素带动下，9月份公路运输市场供需平衡格局有所延 续，9月份公路运价指数环比平稳，仍保持年内高位运行趋势，同比回升相对明显。分区域看，东南沿 海、华北、西北、西南区域运价指数有所回落，东北、华中、山东半岛、珠三角、长三角区域运价指数 有所回升。 中国国际经济交流中心科研信息部副部长刘向东对《证券日报》记者表示，2025年9月份中国公路物流 运价指数呈现出整体回升的特点。物流企业可根据这些指数变化，合理调整运输策略和资源配置；政府 部门也能据此了解行业运行状况，为制定相关政策和进行宏观调控提供参考依据，以促进公路物流行业 的健康稳定发展。 从后期走势看，高帅认为，国庆中秋假 ...

Economic Activity - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of September 9, 2025, is 0.98, a decrease of 0.06 from September 2 [1][3] - Key industrial indicators such as the "coastal coal freight index" and "import dry bulk freight index" have declined, with the coastal coal freight index at 0.71, the lowest since June [1][3] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [42] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetable and pork prices dropping by 15.2% and 16.1% year-on-year, respectively [42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline in production material prices narrowing to 3.2% [42][2] Monetary Policy - As of September 9, 2025, the central bank net withdrew 948.8 billion yuan through open market operations, with a reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5][6] Interest Rates - The overnight interbank rate rose by 12 basis points to 1.48%, while the seven-day repo rate increased by 3 basis points to 1.49% [9][10] - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds increased by 3.46, 1.35, and 4.74 basis points, respectively [14] Industrial Sector - As of September 9, 2025, steel billet prices increased by 1.69% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.01% [23][24] - The operating rate of short-process steel mills remained stable at 69.79%, while long-process steel mills saw a decline to 50.00% [23] Shipping Sector - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index fell by 59.07 points to 994.29 points, while the Baltic Dry Index rose by 93 points to 2079 points [31] Real Estate Market - In the week ending September 9, 2025, new and second-hand home transaction areas in first-tier cities decreased by 24.64% and 4.17%, respectively [35][36] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index decreased by 0.54 points to 97.77, while the RMB appreciated by 228 basis points to 7.1248 against the dollar [44][45]

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's highway logistics price index remained stable, indicating a steady economic performance supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand [1][2]. Summary by Category Overall Index Performance - The highway logistics price index for August was reported at 105.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.01% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1]. Vehicle Type Index - The full truckload index, primarily driven by bulk commodities and regional transport, stood at 105.6 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01% and a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The less-than-truckload (LTL) index showed mixed results: the LTL light cargo index was at 102.6 points, remaining stable month-on-month but down 0.3% year-on-year; the LTL heavy cargo index was at 105.6 points, stable month-on-month and up 1.1% year-on-year [1]. Regional Performance - The price index saw increases in regions such as Northeast, Central China, Shandong Peninsula, and the Yangtze River Delta, while declines were noted in the Southeast Coast, North China, Pearl River Delta, Northwest, and Southwest regions [1]. Market Dynamics - The logistics market is characterized by sufficient capacity, although there are structural and regional fluctuations. The ongoing replacement of new energy heavy trucks is contributing to short-term supply fluctuations in certain areas [1]. - Adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and heavy rainfall in southern regions, have led to a reduction in transport capacity and mileage [1]. Future Outlook - As September approaches, it is anticipated that weather-related impacts will diminish, and a series of policies aimed at promoting growth and consumption will align with the traditional production peak season, leading to a more active highway transport market [2].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 8月生意社BPI工业原材料价格指数持平，能源价格受地缘形势缓和维持弱势，有色分项价格收涨。截 至8月31日，生意社BPI指数录得869点，相较7月末持平。其中能源、有色价格（月环比）分别为-0.2%、 1.4%。8月生意社大宗榜环比上涨、下跌的品种分别为139种、200种，其中上涨品种集中于化工（88 种）、有色（16种）。 第四， 新兴产业链价格多数收涨。 8 月光伏行业综合指数（ SPI ）环比回升 5.1% （前值 16.3% ），其 中多晶硅分项上涨 2.2% ；碳酸锂期货结算价环比回升 14.3% 。表征半导体（内存）景气度的 DXI 指数延 续强势， DXI 指数（代表 DRAM 即内存产值变化景气度）环比上涨 2.4% 。 第二， 8 月内需定价大宗商品涨跌互现。其中动力煤现货价、焦煤期货价延续强势，月环比涨幅分别为 6.6% 、 8.0% ，螺纹、玻璃期货价环比收跌，中国化工产品价格指数月环比回落 2.3% 。南华综合指数月 末值环比回落 0.6% ；月均值同比录得 3.3% （前值 - ...

Core Viewpoint - In July, China's highway logistics freight index was reported at 105 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.05% and a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] Summary by Category Freight Index Performance - The freight index for various vehicle types showed a month-on-month decline while maintaining year-on-year growth [1] - The overall market demand for highway logistics has slowed compared to previous periods due to seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of transport capacity remains relatively sufficient, although there has been a slight decrease in capacity in certain regions [1] - The freight index experienced a seasonal decline due to reduced market demand and adverse weather conditions [1] Regional Analysis - The freight index in the Northeast and Yangtze River Delta regions saw an increase, while other regions experienced a decline [1] Future Outlook - The fluctuations in the highway freight index are expected to be minor in the near term, with a balanced supply-demand adjustment in the highway market [1] - With ongoing policy guidance aimed at increasing volume and reducing competition, the highway transportation market is anticipated to maintain a stable operating trend in the second half of the year, with the freight index likely to experience slight oscillations [1]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's highway logistics price index was reported at 105 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.05% and a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall have contributed to a slowdown in market demand, while supply remains relatively abundant [1][2] - The overall trend indicates a balanced short-term supply-demand adjustment in the highway logistics market, with expectations for slight fluctuations in the price index in the second half of the year [2] Price Index Analysis - The overall truck index, primarily driven by bulk commodities and regional transport, stood at 105.6 points, down 0.05% from June but up 2.1% year-on-year [1] - The light cargo index for less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments was at 102.6 points, decreasing by 0.02% from June and increasing by 0.6% year-on-year [1] - The heavy cargo index for LTL shipments was at 105.6 points, down 0.1% from June and up 2.2% year-on-year [1] Regional Insights - The Northeast and Yangtze River Delta regions saw an increase in their price indices, while other regions experienced declines [2] - Companies in the highway logistics sector are advised to monitor weather changes and market demand closely to optimize capacity and reduce transportation costs [2] Future Outlook - The highway logistics market is expected to maintain a stable operating trend in the second half of the year, influenced by policy guidance and ongoing efforts to avoid excessive competition [2] - Companies are encouraged to enhance industry self-discipline and respond proactively to policy directions to promote a healthy development of the highway transport market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The latest highway logistics price index released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing indicates a seasonal decline in July, influenced by market demand contraction and high temperatures, while still showing year-on-year growth [1] Summary by Category Highway Logistics Price Index - In July, the highway logistics price index in China was recorded at 105 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.05% and a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - The index for freight vehicles, primarily focused on bulk commodities and regional transportation, stood at 105.6 points, down 0.05% from the previous month but up 2.1% compared to the same month last year [1] Market Demand and Supply - The highway logistics market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall, while the supply of transport capacity remains relatively abundant [1] - Regional analysis shows that the price index in the Northeast and Yangtze River Delta regions has seen an increase [1] Future Outlook - The fluctuations in the highway price index are expected to be minor in the near term, with a balanced supply-demand adjustment in the highway market [1] - With policy guidance aimed at increasing volume and ongoing efforts to reduce competition, the highway transportation market is anticipated to maintain a stable operating trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics and transportation market in China is showing a stable upward trend in road logistics freight rates, driven by economic recovery and increased market demand [1] Summary by Categories Freight Rate Index - In June, China's road logistics freight rate index reached 105.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] Vehicle Type Index - All vehicle type indices showed a slight year-on-year growth trend, supported by improved international trade conditions and sustained domestic demand [1] - The truck index, primarily driven by bulk commodities and regional transportation, stood at 105.7 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 3.22% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of recovery with a stable increase in the road logistics price index, driven by improved market demand and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Index Trends - As of June 2025, the China Road Logistics Price Index stands at 105.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1]. - The whole vehicle index, primarily driven by bulk commodities and regional transport, is at 105.7 points, up 0.09% from May and 3.22% year-on-year [1]. - The less-than-truckload (LTL) indices show mixed results, with the light cargo index at 102.6 points (down 0.04% from May, up 1.4% year-on-year) and the heavy cargo index at 105.7 points (up 0.08% from May, up 3.33% year-on-year) [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand for bulk commodities remains stable, contributing to a steady increase in both whole vehicle and heavy cargo price indices [2]. - E-commerce activities, particularly during holiday promotions, have significantly boosted light cargo market performance, leading to a narrower decline in the light cargo index [2]. - The logistics prosperity index for June is reported at 50.8%, indicating a continuous expansion in the logistics sector for four consecutive months [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of policy measures is expected to support steady domestic market demand and positive production expectations [3]. - Seasonal fluctuations are anticipated in the third quarter, influenced by factors such as summer travel peaks and adverse weather conditions [3].