高帅表示，从2025年全年走势看，公路运输市场持续调整优化，四个季度运价指数均保持在105点左 右，且自二季度以来逐季回升，反映出公路运输市场持续调整，企业韧性经营能力有所改善。值得注意 的是，2025年12月份运价指数环比、同比均小幅回落，主要是前期和上年基数较高，叠加部分大宗原材 料领域价格回落、区域运输竞争压力加大，制约运价企稳回升动力。分区域看，西北、山东半岛区域运 价指数有所回升，其他区域运价指数均有所回落。 从后期走势看，高帅表示，多重积极因素叠加作用下，企业市场预期保持向好，大宗原材料、工业生 产、消费市场等传统领域恢复态势巩固，制造业新动能拉动作用强劲，公路市场具备稳中向好运行基 础，预计2026年初运价指数可能季节性波动，或将稳中有降，但总体价格将延续当前运行水平。 1月9日，中国物流与采购联合会和林安物流集团联合调查发布数据显示，2025年12月份，中国公路物流 运价指数为105.2点，环比回落0.22%，同比上一年回落0.70%。 分车型指数看，2025年12月份各车型指数环比小幅回落，同比有所收窄。以大宗商品及区域运输为主的 整车指数为105.8点，比2025年11月份回落0.20%， ...

分析称，从去年全年走势看，中国公路运输市场持续调整优化，四个季度运价指数均保持在105点左 右，且自二季度以来逐季回升，反映出公路运输企业韧性经营能力有所改善。2025年12月运价指数环 比、同比均小幅回落，主要是前期和上年基数较高，叠加部分大宗原材料领域价格回落、区域运输竞争 压力加大，制约运价回升。 分析认为，从后期走势看，"十五五"规划为经济社会发展锚定明确目标，在多重积极因素叠加作用下， 企业市场预期保持向好，大宗原材料、工业生产、消费市场等传统领域恢复态势巩固，制造业新动能拉 动作用强劲，公路市场具备稳中向好运行基础，预计年初中国公路物流运价指数可能季节性波动，或将 稳中有降，但总体将延续当前运行水平。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社北京1月9日电 (记者阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会9日发布数据显示，2025年12月，中国公路物 流运价指数为105.2点，环比回落0.22%，同比回落0.70%，公路物流需求保持活跃。 综合来看，2025年12月经济运行延续恢复向好态势，公路物流需求保持活跃。年末节前，企业生产进入 收尾落实阶段，叠加经济政策落地显效，企业生产需求继续释放，居民消费持续激发，有 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 12月生意社BPI延续回暖。产业"叙事"仍在延续，叠加美联储降息周期支撑风险偏好，有色金属延续 上涨，贵金属中白银领涨。截至12月第四周，生意社BPI指数录得899点，相较11月末环比回升2.4%。其中 能源、有色指数（月环比）分别为-4.2%、11.4%。 第二， 12月内盘定价大宗商品涨跌互现。其中螺纹、焦煤期货价涨幅靠前，月环比涨幅分别录得3.8%、 9.8%；环渤海动力煤现货、玻璃期货价月环比回落16.8%、10.9%；化工产品、水泥价格指数稳中有升，月 环 比 分 别 录 得 1.7% 、 0.6% 。 南 华 综 合 指 数 （ 期 末 值 ） 环 比 收 涨 3.1% ， 月 均 值 同 比 录 得 3.0% （ 前 值 0.2%）。 第三， 四大一线城市房价延续调整。截至12月22日（最新数据），北上广深四大一线城市二手房挂牌价格指 数相较前月最后一周环比录得-1.0%、-1.9%、-1.1%、-1.2% 。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴制造业上游价格偏强，光伏行业综合指数回暖。12月 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 12 月经济：价格篇 | 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 12 月生意社 BPI 延续回暖。产业"叙事"仍在延续，叠加美联储降息周期支撑风险偏好，有色金属延续上涨， 贵金属中白银领涨。截至 12 月第四周，生意社 BPI 指数录得 899 点，相较 11 月末环比回升 2.4%。其中能源、 ...

Core Insights - The logistics market in China shows signs of recovery, with the road logistics price index reaching 105.4 points in November 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.46% and a year-on-year increase of 0.82% [1][2] - Demand for road logistics is supported by year-end production goals and ongoing infrastructure projects, alongside effective consumer policies that boost consumption [1][2] Summary by Category Price Index Performance - The overall road logistics price index increased to 105.4 points, with all weekly indices showing a month-on-month rise [1] - The full truckload index, primarily driven by bulk commodities, reached 106 points, up 0.47% from October and 0.98% year-on-year [1] - The less-than-truckload indices also saw increases, with the light cargo index at 102.9 points (up 0.27% month-on-month, 0.06% year-on-year) and the heavy cargo index at 106.1 points (up 0.59% month-on-month, 1.05% year-on-year) [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing steady growth in new transport capacity, with stable trunk transportation and sufficient supply in the logistics market [2] - The price index's increase is attributed to balanced supply and demand, particularly in bulk and heavy cargo transportation [2] Future Outlook - The economic fundamentals remain positive, with optimistic market signals suggesting that the road transport market will remain active, and the price index may stabilize or slightly increase [2] - Long-term support from government policies, improvements in logistics infrastructure, and innovations in logistics technology are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in the logistics sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics market in China shows signs of recovery, with the road logistics price index reaching its highest level of the year in November 2025, indicating a positive trend in demand and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Price Index Performance - In November 2025, the road logistics price index was 105.4 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.46% and a year-on-year increase of 0.82% [1]. - The index for full truckload transportation, primarily for bulk commodities, was 106 points, up 0.47% from October and 0.98% year-on-year [1]. - The less-than-truckload (LTL) index for light cargo was 102.9 points, increasing by 0.27% from October and 0.06% year-on-year, while the LTL index for heavy cargo was 106.1 points, up 0.59% month-on-month and 1.05% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a steady increase in new transport capacity, with overall stability in trunk transportation and sufficient supply in the transport market [2]. - The price index's increase is attributed to coordinated development in supply and demand, with significant growth in full truckload and heavy cargo transportation [2]. - Regional performance varied, with price indices in the Central China and Shandong Peninsula regions declining, while other regions saw increases [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The economic fundamentals remain positive, with optimistic market signals suggesting that the road transport market will remain active, and the price index may stabilize or slightly increase [2]. - Long-term support from national policies for the logistics industry, along with improvements in logistics infrastructure and technology, is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [2]. - The stable growth of the domestic economy and expanding consumer market will provide broader development opportunities for the logistics sector, indicating a trend of stable growth in the road logistics market [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's highway logistics price index has shown a notable recovery in November, reaching its highest level of the year, driven by a balanced development of supply and demand [1][2] - In November, the highway logistics price index was reported at 105.4 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.46% and a year-on-year increase of 0.82%, suggesting a slight recovery in market demand [1][2] - The growth in the index is particularly significant in the transportation of bulk commodities and heavy cargo, indicating a stable and improving market operation [2] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the overall demand for highway logistics remains stable, supported by year-end production goals and the completion of infrastructure projects, which bolster the demand for basic raw materials [1] - Consumer demand is also showing positive momentum due to the effective release of consumption-boosting policies, contributing to the overall stability of the logistics market [1] - The supply side is characterized by a steady increase in new transport capacity, with overall stability in trunk transportation, indicating a sufficient supply in the market [1][2]

Core Insights - The China Road Logistics Freight Index reached 105.4 points in November 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.46% and a year-on-year increase of 0.82% [1][3] Summary by Category Freight Index Overview - The overall freight index for November 2025 is 105.4 points, up from 105.1 points in October [3] - The full truckload index increased to 106.0 points, a rise of 0.47% from the previous month and 0.98% year-on-year [3] - The less-than-truckload light cargo index rose to 102.9 points, up 0.27% month-on-month and 0.06% year-on-year [3] - The less-than-truckload heavy cargo index reached 106.1 points, increasing by 0.59% from the previous month and 1.05% year-on-year [3] Market Demand and Supply - The road logistics market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, driven by year-end production goals and the completion of infrastructure projects [4] - Industrial production is stabilizing demand for basic raw materials, supporting the overall logistics demand [4] - Consumer demand is improving due to the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [4] - The market is seeing a steady increase in new transport capacity, with overall stability in trunk transportation [4] Regional Performance - The freight index in the Central China and Shandong Peninsula regions has declined, while other regions have seen increases [4] Future Outlook - The positive economic fundamentals are expected to continue, with optimistic market signals accumulating [4] - The road transport market is anticipated to remain active, with the freight index likely to stabilize at current high levels or experience slight increases [4]

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 25, 2025, is 1.27, an increase of 0.02 from November 18 [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" rose by 0.05 to 1.29, while the "30-city commodity housing sales index" fluctuated between 0.44 and 0.46 [1][3] Industrial Sector Performance - From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate from January to September [19] - The revenue and cost growth rates for the same period were both 0.6 percentage points lower than those from January to September, at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively [19] - State-owned industrial enterprises' profits remained stable compared to the previous year, while joint-stock enterprises saw a profit increase of 1.5% to 44,328.3 billion yuan, foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan enterprises increased by 3.5% to 14,848.6 billion yuan, and private enterprises grew by 1.9% to 16,995.6 billion yuan [19] Profitability by Industry - Profitability varied across industries from January to October 2025, with the mining industry's profit margin rising from 16.68% to 16.76%, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin remained stable at 4.57% [2][19] - The profit margin for the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry decreased from 7.05% to 6.97% [2][19] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 25, 2025, the central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 337.5 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase amount of 1,626.3 billion yuan and a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 17 basis points to 1.41%, while the 7-day repurchase rate remained unchanged at 1.54% [8][9] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 10.84%, 23.06%, and 12.72% respectively, while second-hand housing transaction areas decreased by 5.84%, 2.64%, and 13.86% [30] - The average daily transaction area for all types of housing was below the level of the previous year [30] Consumer Behavior - The average daily box office revenue for movies was 64.23 million yuan, a decrease of 36.73 million yuan from the previous week [34] - The road logistics price index increased by 0.07% over the past month, up 0.48% year-on-year [34] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose by 0.22 points to 99.81, while the RMB to USD exchange rate increased by 187 basis points to 7.0938 [35][38] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX index decreased by 6.13 points to 18.56 [35][38]

Core Insights - The logistics industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the rise of electric vehicles, leading to a shift from fragmented operations to large-scale, efficient models [1][5] - The cost advantages of electric trucks and the development of a robust charging infrastructure are critical for enabling large-scale operations [2][4] - Digitalization and innovative operational models are enhancing efficiency and predictability in asset returns for large logistics companies [3][4] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The logistics sector is experiencing a shift from decentralized to centralized operations due to the electrification of transport [1][5] - Electric trucks, despite higher initial costs, offer long-term economic benefits, enabling large companies to achieve scale through bulk purchasing and government incentives [1][4] - The cost of operating electric heavy trucks is significantly lower, with energy costs per kilometer at approximately 1.15 yuan compared to 1.68 yuan for fuel trucks, leading to annual savings of about 95,000 yuan per vehicle [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Support - The establishment of a comprehensive charging network is essential for the efficient operation of electric logistics vehicles, which large companies are better positioned to develop [2] - The trend of resource consolidation is accelerating as smaller operators rely on the energy networks of larger firms, facilitating a shift from fragmented to collaborative operations [2] Group 3: Digitalization and Innovation - Electric trucks' inherent digital capabilities allow for integration with smart management systems, enhancing operational efficiency through real-time data analysis [3] - Innovations such as vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology enable electric fleets to act as distributed energy storage, improving asset utilization and financial resilience [3] Group 4: Operational Models - New operational models like battery leasing and shared fleet management are lowering entry barriers for companies, promoting broader participation in electric logistics [4] - The evolution of these models is dismantling the notion that large-scale operations are exclusive to a few companies, fostering a more open and efficient industry ecosystem [4]