1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's stance on combating inflation in the June meeting remained firm. The dot - plot maintained the median forecast of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, but the number of committee members favoring two or more rate cuts decreased, and the median interest rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 increased [2][4]. - The FOMC lowered the forecast for the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year from 1.7% in March to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecasts for this year and next year. The year - on - year increases in core PCE in the fourth quarters of 2025 and 2026 were raised by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to the March forecasts [7]. - Rate cuts should follow price increases. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady in June was in line with expectations as inflation and retail data in April and May were flat, showing no obvious trend of tariff - to - price pass - through. The key to the Fed's subsequent policy lies in whether the tariff - to - price pass - through is temporary or persistent [2][7]. - There are three possible scenarios for the Fed's rate - cut path: normal rate - cut scenario, postponed rate - cut scenario, and year - end accelerated rate - cut scenario. The first two scenarios are more likely, while the third scenario has a very low probability. If the Middle East conflict eases and oil prices fall, the Fed may restart rate cuts at the October meeting [2][8][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On June 18 (local time), the Fed announced the latest interest - rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time [3]. Fed's Stance and Forecast Changes - The Fed's dot - plot maintained the median forecast of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year. In the June dot - plot, 10 members expected two or more rate cuts this year, compared with 11 in the March meeting. In the March dot - plot, only 4 members expected no rate cuts this year, while 7 members in the June dot - plot expected no rate cuts. The median interest rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 also increased [4]. Economic Expectations - The FOMC lowered the forecast for the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year from 1.7% in March to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The year - on - year increases in core PCE in the fourth quarters of 2025 and 2026 were raised by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to the March forecasts [7]. Rate - Cut Scenarios - **Normal rate - cut scenario**: If the impact of tariffs on prices is reflected in the inflation data in June and July, and the data in August shows a slowdown in inflation, the Fed could cut rates at the September meeting. However, out of caution, it may wait until the September data further confirm the inflation slowdown and then cut rates at the October meeting. This scenario is in line with the assumption of two rate cuts this year [2][8]. - **Postponed rate - cut scenario**: If the impact of tariffs on prices is reflected in June and July, but inflation does not slow down in August, the Fed will be unable to determine whether the tariff impact is temporary. It will be difficult to cut rates before the December meeting. This scenario is in line with the view of only one rate cut or even no rate cuts this year [2][8]. - **Year - end accelerated rate - cut scenario**: If the decline in US consumer confidence has a significant impact or the US economy slows down more than expected, and the inflation rate does not increase significantly from June to August, the Fed may accelerate rate cuts at the October and December meetings. However, the probability of this scenario is very low [2][8][12].