当地时间2月4日，美国财政部长贝森特出席美国国会众议院金融服务委员会的听证会。 卡斯滕随后逼问贝森特是选择更改自己此前的陈述，还是承认自己撒谎了，贝森特回答称，"如果我之 前说错了，我想予以更正，我之前说'关税可能导致通货膨胀'那也是我误判了。" （文章来源：央视新闻） 美国民主党籍众议员西恩·卡斯滕在会上提到，在贝森特就任财政部长之前，他创立的投资公司曾在给 用户的信中写道，"特朗普政府不会实施关税措施"，"关税会引发通胀"；据悉，贝森特在去年的一次参 议院听证会上曾直接否认关税会引发通胀。 ...

Global Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists predict that global economic growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, with the full effects expected to manifest in the second half of this year [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that inflation caused by tariffs will likely not persist for long, as the U.S. economy is entering a weaker state compared to the inflationary periods of 2021 and 2022 [1] - John Hardy from Saxo Bank warns that the U.S. Treasury should monitor risks in the Japanese government bond market, as Japan's debt situation is becoming more severe [1] Japanese Yen and Bond Market - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue, despite recent declines in long-term Japanese government bond yields [2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicate that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to address the supply-demand imbalance in the long-term bond market, continuing to reduce bond purchases until March 2026 [3] - State Street Global Advisors describes the challenges in the Japanese bond market as "technical" rather than "structural," suggesting that these issues can be resolved through adjustments in issuance [4] Chinese Aviation and Energy Sector - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the significant drop in oil prices this year is expected to improve the cost structure for airlines, with a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [5] - CICC also highlights opportunities in the diesel generator sets and large-bore engines used in data centers, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure [6] Consumer Goods and Pet Industry - Huatai Securities emphasizes the potential for recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, as consumption trends improve [7] - Huaxi Securities projects that China's pet industry could reach a market size of 478.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2024 to 2030 [8] Investment Strategies in Materials and Energy - CITIC Securities outlines three investment themes in the materials sector, focusing on policy-driven themes, high certainty growth from industry prosperity, and innovation in products and technologies [9] - The same report suggests that the second half of 2025 will see a complex price trend in commodities due to U.S. tariff policies, recommending a focus on "hedging" and "supply disruptions" [10] Economic Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a potential bull market for Chinese equity assets starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles across major economies [11] - The firm also predicts that the economic landscape will exhibit characteristics of strong production, recovering investment, stable consumption, and resilient exports [12]