当前美股下跌后反弹，但预计反弹很难超过3天，如果接下来再出中长阴，那么美股见顶的可能性将进 一步增大，并且可能快速下行。如果美股见大顶崩盘，那么全球市场将"无一幸免"。现在A股多头就是 在和美股空头赛跑，看能否在美股崩盘前最后拉一波了。不要天真地认为即使美股崩了A股也能独立走 牛，只不过届时美股是持续暴跌，而A股是大牛市主升浪启动前的"技术性调整"…… 美国非农数据爆冷，并且此前的数据大幅下修，显示美国经济有快速下行的风险。而从美股技术走势来 看，纳指期货自2022年低点走出5浪结构，周线看形成喇叭形，日线连续两根中阴，MACD指标形成大 跨度的连续顶背离，这些都堪称是经典的顶部信号。本来加关税是对全球经济的大利空，市场靠"预期 差"创出新高，但即使关税战降级，影响也是明确而深远的，这就是一种明显的背离，是错误定价，终 将要回归的。长期看美国巨额债务压顶，金融危机爆发只是时间问题。如果以前狼都没有真的来，那么 这次来的可能性将大幅增加。 大盘连续下跌后反弹并不意外，不过这个反弹能有多高很难讲，中证1000指数近期表现抗跌，目前距离 前高较近，再创一下新高的希望大一些；但创业板指距离前高较远，创新高的难度较大， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Milkwell (603713), reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, despite facing challenges such as high debt levels and negative investment cash flow [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.118 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 565 million yuan, up 31.04% [3][5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.342 billion yuan, a 15.40% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 172 million yuan, reflecting a 14.02% growth [3][5]. Debt and Cash Flow - The company's debt ratio stands at 68.33%, attributed to increased operational scale and debt financing for acquiring long-term assets [5]. - The negative investment cash flow in 2024 is primarily due to strategic investments in fixed and intangible assets [2][5]. Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. tariff increases have a limited impact on the company's global freight forwarding business, which constitutes about 30% of total revenue, with the U.S.-Canada route accounting for approximately 25% of that segment [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its shipping routes, leading to an increase in cargo volume on European and Southeast Asian routes since the second half of 2024 [2][3]. Future Growth Drivers - Future profit growth is expected to be driven by effective management and market recognition of the company's value, as outlined in the 2024 annual report [3][4]. Industry Context - The company operates in the modern logistics sector, providing comprehensive logistics services, including freight forwarding, warehousing, and transportation, primarily for the chemical supply chain [4].