Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is primarily driven by external factors, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which has led to a surge in international oil prices and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing global financial market turbulence [1][2]. Market Adjustment Reasons - The adjustment is seen as a process to solidify the 4000-point level, with the 3000-point mark having established a solid support level over 17 years, making a retest of this level highly unlikely [3][4]. - The market's previous bullish sentiment contributed to a delayed reaction to risks, culminating in the recent significant market adjustment [1]. Technical Analysis - The A-share market structure is characterized by a double bottom and triple top formation, with the current adjustment being a normal retracement phase [2]. - Key historical points include the formation of a significant bottom at 2635 points on February 5, 2024, and a triple top around 4197 points on March 3, 2026, which is considered a "false high" [2]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a rebound due to stabilizing forces, but this should be viewed as a rebound rather than a reversal, as the market continues to seek new support levels [2]. - The low points are gradually rising, with projections indicating that the 2026 market low will be higher than the 2025 low [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to differentiate between strong and weak stocks, as significant ETF funds (700 billion to 1 trillion) expected to be liquidated in early 2026 will provide crucial support for quality stocks [5]. - Early research and positioning in quality stocks are recommended to capitalize on potential market opportunities [5].

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Group 1 - The market's recent rebound after consecutive declines is not surprising, but the extent of this rebound is uncertain. The CSI 1000 index has shown resilience and is closer to its previous high, increasing the likelihood of setting a new high. However, the ChiNext index is further from its previous high, making it more challenging to reach new highs. The Shanghai Composite Index faces difficulties due to weak heavyweight stocks [1][3] - It is expected that there will be at least a process of upward fluctuation on Tuesday, with Thursday being a critical time window as it marks the beginning of autumn. If the market moves upward, indices like ChiNext may have a chance to set new highs, forming a double top. Conversely, if the market turns downward, the high point from July 30 may become the peak of this upward trend [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market has rebounded after a decline, but this rebound is expected to last no more than three days. If a medium to long bearish trend emerges, the likelihood of a market peak increases, potentially leading to a rapid decline. A significant downturn in the U.S. market would likely impact global markets [4] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data was disappointing, and prior data was significantly revised downwards, indicating a risk of rapid economic decline. Technical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows classic top signals, suggesting a potential market peak. The ongoing trade war and its implications for the global economy are also highlighted as significant risks [5]