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磷酸铁锂 | 双重压力下的产业突围:磷酸铁锂在关税与成本夹击中的生存逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 23:58
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the temporary suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days, which aims to provide a buffer for the upcoming trade season and improve the short-term trade environment for the lithium iron phosphate industry [1][3] - The tariff adjustments are expected to stabilize the supply chain of lithium iron phosphate and enhance its international market share, with companies likely to accelerate export arrangements during this window period [3][12] - The article outlines a timeline of tariff changes between China and the US, highlighting significant increases and subsequent reductions in tariffs over the past months [2] Group 2 - The supply side is experiencing disruptions due to environmental regulations and production halts, leading to an increase in lithium iron phosphate prices [4][8] - The domestic production of lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate is under pressure, with significant price increases noted, particularly for battery-grade lithium carbonate, which has surpassed 85,000 yuan per ton [8] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is showing structural recovery, with a 4.6% increase in production in July, indicating a strong market for these batteries [9][11] Group 3 - The macro outlook suggests that global competition in the new energy sector has transcended traditional trade boundaries, with the next 90 days being crucial for export opportunities [12] - There are uncertainties regarding the recovery of lithium carbonate supply, which may drive prices higher, thereby increasing cost pressures on lithium iron phosphate and pushing processing profits into negative territory [12] - The industry is expected to see a continued struggle between supply and demand, with low-end production capacity facing significant risks of elimination [12]