【玻璃和纯碱现货行情】 玻璃：沙河大板成交均价1050元/吨上下。 【供需】 截至2025年11月13日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.91万吨，与6日持平。本周（20251107-1113）全国浮法 玻璃产量111.39万吨，环比-1.08%，同比+0.76%。 截止到20251113，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6324.7万重箱，环比+11.1万重箱，环比+0.18%，同比 +33.61%。折库存天数27.5天，较上期+0.4天。 【分析】 玻璃：湖北地区部分产线停产信息引发市场情绪，带动盘面反弹，市场对于后市湖北地区进一步去产能 有一定预期。盘面反弹带动现货走货转好，中下游采买，继续关注持续性表现。虽然近期有产线陆续冷 修，但后续沙河地区还将有产线复产点火预期，涉及日产能约3650吨，届时或还将对供应端形成压力。 11月仍处于年底赶工旺季，短期仍有一定的刚需支撑。不过，中长期来看，旺季尾端，市场对于后市的 需求持续性存有担忧，北方随着气温降低室外施工将陆续停止，12月以后需求端收缩玻璃价格还将承 压。地产仍处于底部周期，竣工缩量明显，因此过剩格局下最终玻璃行业仍需要产能出清来解决过剩困 境。后期北方室外施工 ...

今年以来，港股市场表现强劲，成为市场关注的焦点。不少投资者对其背后的驱动逻辑及2026年的延续 性尤为关注。Wind数据显示，截至11月25日收盘，恒生指数、恒生科技指数今年以来分别累计上涨 29.09%、25.60%。 中金公司研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2025年港股的优异表 现由流动性和情绪主导，其脉络是"过剩流动性"对"稀缺回报资产"的追逐。展望2026年，流动性充裕的 局面将延续，但"稀缺资产"难以大幅扩散，市场将更多由结构性景气驱动，投资者需在把握产业主线的 同时，警惕潜在风险，灵活布局。 流动性驱动下的"稀缺资产"追逐战 回顾2025年，港股在全球市场中一马当先。刘刚表示，尽管面临海外不确定性因素扰动，但港股市场在 AI产业趋势和国内经济基本面改善的背景下，内外部流动性的"叙事"显著放大。"今年港股市场的表 现，估值和情绪的贡献占据了主导，资金流入起到了助推作用。"他说。 刘刚进一步阐释了贯穿全年的核心脉络，即"过剩流动性"对"稀缺回报资产"的追逐。刘刚表示："当信 用周期收缩时，大部分资产缺乏回报，资金会涌向能提供固定回报的资产；而当信用周期局部修复时， 则 ...

中金公司（601995）研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2025年港 股的优异表现由流动性和情绪主导，其脉络是"过剩流动性"对"稀缺回报资产"的追逐。展望2026年，流 动性充裕的局面将延续，但"稀缺资产"难以大幅扩散，市场将更多由结构性景气驱动，投资者需在把握 产业主线的同时，警惕潜在风险，灵活布局。 今年以来，港股市场表现强劲，成为市场关注的焦点。不少投资者对其背后的驱动逻辑及2026年的延续 性尤为关注。数据显示，截至11月25日收盘，恒生指数、恒生科技指数今年以来分别累计上涨 29.09%、25.60%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 流动性驱动下的"稀缺资产"追逐战 对于市场普遍关注的美联储货币政策转向，刘刚认为，2026年上半年全球流动性环境将维持宽松，但下 半年存在变数。他预判美联储2026年可能降息3次，但长端利率中枢仍将维持在3.8%—4%的较高水平。 "美联储降息短期有利于提振港股流动性，但这并非决定性因素。"刘刚称，复盘港股市场历史，国内基 本面和政策的影响更为关键。他提出了两种放大降息利好的方式：一是借此窗口实施更大力度的国内宽 松政策，以支撑信用扩张；二是关注 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 12 月行业配置关注：产能出清与景气改善的线索 ——行业比较与配置系列（2025 年 12 月） 过去一个月市场在美联储降息预期降温、AI 泡沫担忧、涨价行情持续演绎等多重 因素影响下震荡下行，周期板块及防御行业表现较好，TMT、机械等行业跌幅居 前。展望 12 月份，行业配置重点关注"库存低位企稳+产能结构优化+景气持续 改善"的领域。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶段和 赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注非银、电力设备（电池、逆变器、风电设备）、 国防军工、煤炭、基础化工、钢铁等。 【本期关注】产能出清与景气改善的线索 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 定期报告 相关报告 《11 月行业配置关注：三季报 业绩与"十五五"规划指引》 《10 月行业配置关注：高景气 持续与困境反转的线索》 《9 月行业配置关注：美联储降 息与 PPI 止跌的交易线索》 《8 月行业配置关注：反内卷与 中报业绩改善的线索》 《7 月行业配置关注：哪些领域 中报业绩有望高增或边际改善》 《A 股盈利有望止跌回升，配置 聚焦三条线索——A ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing a prolonged period of overcapacity and demand slowdown, with significant price competition expected to continue, but without major fluctuations anticipated in the near term [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The current discussion around the consolidation of polysilicon production and funding is unprecedented, with slow progress and ongoing debates about regulation and capacity coordination [1][3]. - The PV industry is experiencing a unique situation of overcapacity combined with demand slowdown, leading to price pressures in the downstream market [3][4]. - Recent rumors regarding the failure of a proposed storage initiative in the PV sector were denied by industry associations and companies, reaffirming support for anti-involution policies [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that global PV capacity will be sufficient to meet demand until 2035, with an expected supply of 1.5 million tons of polysilicon by 2025 [4]. - The global PV installation is projected to reach a record high of 694 GW this year, with China leading by adding 337 GW, resulting in a component demand exceeding 400 GW [4][5]. - The domestic installation demand has been relatively flat since June, attributed to ongoing policy developments and developers' cautious approach [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading PV manufacturers are diversifying into energy storage, with companies like Trina Solar and JinkoSolar shifting focus to this segment [4]. - Despite the growth in overseas markets, the overall scale remains small and may not compensate for the anticipated decline in the Chinese market starting in 2026 [5][8]. - The cost of PV manufacturing in China remains significantly lower than in other regions, with a production cost of approximately $0.08/W compared to $0.5/W in the U.S. [8].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a "anti-involution" self-discipline movement, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and potential investment opportunities as the industry recovers from prolonged losses [1][2] Group 1: Industry Actions - Various segments within the chemical sector are actively pursuing self-discipline actions, such as polysilicon leading companies forming a consortium to store capacity, caprolactam reducing production to support prices, and the organic silicon industry promoting self-regulation [1][2] - The polysilicon sector plans to establish a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan to eliminate excess capacity and address accumulated industry debts, which is expected to drive up silicon material prices [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The chemical industry has been in a bottoming phase for over two years, with profitability at historical lows, but new capacity investments are nearing completion, indicating a potential turning point by 2026 [1] - The organic silicon industry has seen continuous improvement in supply-demand conditions this year, with expectations for further enhancement next year, as previous negative factors have been largely mitigated [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector presents left-side layout opportunities, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages and reasonable valuations in segments like soda ash, coal chemical, and titanium dioxide, which are characterized by high energy consumption and a significant proportion of outdated capacity [2]

Core Insights - The company has reported a significant decline in pig prices since the third quarter, leading to overall losses in the pig farming sector, although the feed business remains profitable, resulting in a slight overall profit for the third quarter [1][2] - For the first three quarters of the year, the company's pig farming business incurred cumulative losses of approximately 180 million yuan, with a loss of 230 million yuan in the third quarter alone, although this represents a reduction in losses of 270 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The company has seen a decrease in pig farming costs, with the cost of fattened pigs dropping to 12.9 yuan/kg in the third quarter, and further reductions to 12.7 yuan/kg in September and 12.5 yuan/kg in October [1] Industry Analysis - The recent sharp decline in pig prices is attributed to several factors, including a peak in the number of breeding sows last November, effective disease control measures, and increased production efficiency, leading to a surplus of pigs in the market [1] - The company believes that the current price drop is not alarming, as the overall market supply is relatively stable, and the excess capacity must be resolved through sales, which may accelerate market clearing [1] - The industry is facing widespread losses at current prices around 11 yuan/kg, with many leading enterprises also experiencing losses, which may force weaker players to exit the market, ultimately benefiting larger, cash-rich companies in the long run [1]

Core Insights - Institutional attention has rebounded, particularly in the construction decoration, automotive, and non-bank financial sectors, indicating a shift in market focus [3][8][11] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the profitability of A-shares in Q3 2025, driven by capacity clearance and price stabilization, suggesting a positive outlook for various industries [14][15][16] Institutional Research Tracking - The report notes a decrease in total institutional research activity across all A-shares, with a notable decline in October 2025, likely due to the earnings disclosure period [8][9] - However, specific sectors such as construction decoration, automotive, and non-bank financial services have seen an increase in research activity, indicating growing interest [8][11] Industry Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of industry performance, with the retail trade sector showing a 1.426% increase, while telecommunications experienced a decline of 2.200% [4][6] - The construction decoration and automotive sectors are highlighted as areas of increased institutional focus, suggesting potential investment opportunities [8][11] Capacity Cycle and Profitability - The report emphasizes the importance of capacity cycles in determining industry profitability, with a focus on sectors that are experiencing capacity clearance and price recovery [14][15][16] - It suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and electrical equipment are likely to benefit from improved profit margins due to ongoing capacity adjustments [16][17] Inflation and Fixed Income - The report discusses the potential for rising inflation, with October 2025 CPI showing a 0.2% increase, which is higher than market expectations [24][25][28] - It highlights the implications of inflation on bond yields, suggesting that if inflation trends upward, bond market dynamics may shift significantly [28][30] Banking Sector Insights - The report analyzes the impact of deposit non-bankization on liquidity risk indicators within the banking sector, noting a trend of increasing non-bank deposits among major banks [32][33] - It concludes that while the impact on liquidity coverage ratios (LCR) and net stable funding ratios (NSFR) is manageable, banks may need to enhance their liquidity management strategies [33][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company's photovoltaic materials segment achieved an unaudited profit of approximately RMB 9.6 billion in Q3 2025, compared to an unaudited loss of RMB 18.1 billion in the same period last year, marking a significant turnaround [1]. - The average external selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was RMB 42.12 per kg, reflecting a 27.9% increase from Q2 2025, while the average production cash cost decreased by 4.5% to RMB 24.16 per kg [2]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards for polysilicon production is expected to facilitate capacity clearance and industry upgrades, with the company’s granular silicon production meeting the new standards [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The photovoltaic materials business reported an adjusted EBITDA of approximately RMB 14.1 billion in Q3 2025, a recovery from an adjusted EBITDA loss of RMB 5.71 billion in the same quarter last year [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 123.9 billion, RMB 169.5 billion, and RMB 214.2 billion respectively, with net profits projected at RMB -9.9 billion, RMB 13.8 billion, and RMB 25.6 billion [5]. Market Position - The company’s market share for granular silicon reached 24.32% in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from 14.58% in 2024, driven by continuous improvements in product quality and customer adhesion [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the expected price recovery in the granular silicon market, with further improvements anticipated in Q4 2025 [5]. Industry Trends - The new energy consumption standards for polysilicon production are expected to significantly tighten industry regulations, promoting the exit of less efficient producers and benefiting companies like this one that meet the new criteria [3][4].

玻璃：沙河成交均价1100元/吨上下。 【供需】 截至2025年10月30日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.13万吨，与23日持平。本周（20251024-1030）全国浮 法玻璃产量112.89万吨，环比持平，同比+1.28%。 截止到20251030，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6579万重箱，环比-82.3万重箱，环比-1.24%，同比 +28.85%。折库存天数28天，较上期-0.3天。 【分析】 【玻璃和纯碱现货行情】 玻璃：近期有关沙河地区产线停产的消息引发市场关注，根据沙河市公告，4条燃煤产线将进行技改， 涉及日产能约2350吨，全部为小板产线，不涉及大板生产，该事件短期对盘面造成一定情绪面影响，但 中长线看，沙河地区后续还将有产线复产点火，涉及日产能约3650吨，届时还将对供应端形成压力。回 归行业供需，最新深加工订单数据小幅转好，11月仍处于年底赶工旺季，仍有一定的旺季需求预期，可 关注玻璃现货需求表现，若产销整体表现偏强，则可为玻璃价格形成托底。不过，中长期来看，地产仍 处于底部周期，竣工缩量明显，因此最终玻璃行业仍需要产能出清来解决过剩困境。后市可重点跟踪现 货端持续性及宏观层面指引。近期产销 ...