但全天成交额显著缩量，意味着这场普涨更像一次"情绪回血"，而非增量资金大举进场的攻势重启。 资金追高意愿不强，热点轮动提速，政策与消息成为板块脉冲的主要推手。盘面之下，藏着比涨跌更值 得细品的投资线索与风险暗礁。 政策与消息驱动：热点的"燃料"从何而来？ 这一轮板块活跃，几乎都能找到明确的催化剂： 今天的A股 "多点开花"，商业航天爆发、福建板块走强、锂矿反弹、大消费活跃。 连板股数量升至8家，金富科技（003018）5连板、茂业商业（600828）4连板，短线资金的情绪温度计 读数不低。 商业航天爆发直接导火索是"北京拟在晨昏轨道建设超千兆瓦太空数据中心"的消息。 太空数据中心的概念，把卫星互联网、算力基础设施和高精尖制造串成一条链。 政策想象空间巨大，但落地周期与商业模式尚在雏形阶段——这是典型的"先画饼、再探路"。 消费板块的困境在于信心恢复慢，政策更多是托底与引导，业绩兑现需要时间与数据验证。 福建板块走强源自《福建省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》发布，文中明确提到深化国 资国企改革。 这些热点均是政策或事件驱动鲜明，基本面能见度不一。它们能在盘中制造脉冲，但能否跨日延续，取 决于后续有无 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问贵公司5.65万吨电池级碳酸锂可转化为电池级硫化 锂多少吨？电池级硫化锂送样头部电池企业反馈如何？电池级硫化锂什么时候进入量产？电池级硫化锂 预计年产量多少？ 天华新能（300390.SZ）11月28日在投资者互动平台表示，公司位于四川省眉山市的子公司四川天华拥 有年产6万吨电池级氢氧化锂产能，其中一条年产3万吨的产线为柔性生产线，可根据市场需求转化为年 产2.65万吨电池级碳酸锂产能；位于江西省宜春市的子公司奉新时代拥有年产3万吨电池级碳酸锂产 能。公司开展硫化物固态电解质核心原料硫化锂材料的研发与产业化，已经给多家客户送样，获得了良 好反馈，现处于进一步推动放量送样过程。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Core Viewpoint - The battery industry is increasingly focusing on upstream investments to secure key resources, with companies like Ningde Times and Tianhua New Energy forming strategic partnerships to enhance supply chain stability and meet growing market demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Transactions and Partnerships - Tianhua New Energy announced a transfer of 108 million unrestricted shares to Ningde Times for a total price of 2.635 billion yuan, which represents 12.95% of Tianhua's total shares [1]. - After the transaction, Ningde Times will hold 13.54% of Tianhua New Energy, becoming a significant strategic shareholder [1]. - This is not the first collaboration between the two companies; Ningde Times previously held 0.59% of Tianhua and has been involved in joint ventures such as Tianyi Lithium Industry, focusing on lithium hydroxide production [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Capacity Expansion - Major battery manufacturers, including Ningde Times, are actively expanding their upstream resource integration to ensure stable supply chains amid increasing demand for lithium resources [4]. - Ningde Times is expanding its production capacity across multiple locations, with significant expansions planned in Jining, Guangdong, and other regions, including an expected addition of over 100 GWh of energy storage capacity by 2026 in Jining [5]. - The lithium market has seen a price recovery, with lithium carbonate prices rising from around 60,000 yuan/ton to over 70,000 yuan/ton since the second half of the year [7]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that global lithium carbonate production could reach approximately 1.37 million tons by 2025, with China contributing about 70% of this output [7]. - The demand for energy storage and power batteries is expected to grow significantly due to favorable policies and market conditions, leading to a sustained high demand for lithium resources [7]. - The lithium supply-demand balance is anticipated to shift towards tight equilibrium between 2025 and 2028, with lithium prices expected to stabilize between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan/ton by 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Yahua Group is enhancing its lithium salt production capacity and focusing on solid-state battery technology development, positioning itself as a key supplier in the global lithium market [1][2][3] Group 1: Production Capacity and Technology - Yahua Group's lithium salt comprehensive production capacity is expected to reach nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025, with a new 30,000-ton high-grade lithium salt production line under construction [2] - The company has achieved full-process coverage in production automation, smart manufacturing, and management information, significantly improving production efficiency and product quality [1] - Yahua Group's lithium products, including battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, exceed national standards and are recognized globally, serving major clients like Tesla and CATL [1] Group 2: Customer Structure and Market Position - The company's lithium business relies on long-term agreements, with over 90% of revenue coming from leading enterprises in the lithium sector, ensuring stable cooperation and deep integration into the global supply chain [1][2] - Yahua Group has established a diversified resource assurance system, combining self-controlled and purchased lithium resources to secure raw material supply for current and future production needs [2] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Development - The company is focusing on the development of solid-state battery technology, particularly the synthesis process of lithium sulfide, and has successfully developed a new gas-solid synthesis process [3] - The new process demonstrates advantages in material cost, product purity, and process controllability, with key indicators of lithium sulfide products reaching industry-leading levels [3] - Yahua Group plans to deliver samples by the end of the year and is working on the construction of a pilot production line for lithium sulfide, aiming to enter the solid-state battery industry chain by 2026 [3]

编号：20251126 证券代码：002497 证券简称：雅化集团 | | 特定对象调研 | 分析师会议 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关 | 媒体采访 | 业绩说明会 | | | 系活动类 | 新闻发布会 | 路演活动 | | | 别 | 现场参观 | | | | | 其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | | | 瓴仁投资：祝子瀚 | 弘尚资产：沙正江 | 格传投资：鞠龙 | | | 鹏华基金：萧嘉倩 | 正心谷：姚怀畅 | Sage par：May Chen | | | 星石投资：王荣亮 | 青骊投资：邬雨航 | 瀚亚投资：翁晴雅 | | | 嘉实基金：宋阳、陈路华 | 拾贝投资：李昌强 | 源乐晟：林浩 | | | 川恒集团：何永凯 | 汐泰投资：管浩维 | 德汇投资：刘晓芳 | | | 中安投资：祁向阳 | 匠心联创：宁培坚 | 成都明永投资：万春艳 | | | 常春藤资产：胡肖 | 华西基金：赵彬凯 | 招商信诺：陈江威 | | | 西部利得：邹玲玲、曹城 | 长城证券：王彤 | 华泰资管：曹青宇 | | 参与单位 | 银河证券：刘兰程 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows resilience with the ChiNext New Energy ETF experiencing significant inflows and price increases, driven by strong demand in the lithium battery supply chain and favorable market conditions for renewable energy sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened lower but turned positive during the session, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) rising by 0.70% [1]. - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) recorded a net inflow of over 21 million yuan in the past five days, with a trading volume of 30.67 million yuan, leading its category [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain, such as Penghui Energy, Tianji Shares, and Dangsheng Materials, reported full production and sales [1]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 91,960 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.9%, with prices for hexafluorophosphate lithium and mainstream lithium iron phosphate cells also rising [1]. - Haibosi Chuang and CATL signed a ten-year procurement agreement for no less than 200 GWh from 2026 to 2028, indicating a clear long-term optimistic outlook for the industry [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Jiangsu Securities anticipates sustained demand for global energy storage and power equipment, with tight lithium supply and ongoing developments in wind and solar energy sectors [2]. - Key focus areas include: 1. Overseas expansion driven by AI-related electricity shortages in the U.S., maintaining strong export growth from China [2]. 2. Anticipated growth in bidding and project initiation for ultra-high voltage and main grid projects by 2025 [2]. 3. Potential for AI applications and computational power demands in power digitization [2]. 4. A new cycle for electric meters expected to see both volume and price increases by 2026 [2]. 5. Emphasis on the turning point in electricity reform-related distribution and usage sectors [2]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering various segments of the new energy and electric vehicle industries, including batteries and photovoltaics [2]. - It has the highest elasticity with a potential increase of up to 20%, and the lowest fees, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2]. - As of October 31, 2025, the fund's size reached 829 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 90.05 million yuan over the past month [2].

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is experiencing strong demand growth, leading multiple companies to operate at full production and sales capacity [1][2] - Companies are entering long-term agreements to secure supply, reflecting optimistic expectations for the long-term demand for energy storage batteries [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Guangzhou Penghui Energy Technology Co., Ltd. reports that its main energy storage products are currently at full production and sales, with prices increasing compared to the first half of the year [1] - Tianji New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. indicates that its lithium hexafluorophosphate is also in a full production and sales state for the current and next quarter [1] - Beijing Dongsheng Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has completed the first phase of its 40,000-ton capacity for lithium iron phosphate, achieving immediate production upon completion [1] - Fujian Longjing Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. states that its current energy storage cell capacity of approximately 8.5 GWh has been at full production and sales since March, with plans to increase capacity to reduce production costs [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The current surge in the lithium battery market is driven by strong market demand, with both energy storage batteries and new energy vehicle power batteries showing robust growth [1] - As of November 25, the spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 91,960 yuan per ton, a 21.90% increase from the previous month's price of 75,440 yuan per ton [1] - The price of key electrolyte material lithium hexafluorophosphate has also seen significant increases, along with rising prices for mainstream lithium iron phosphate cells [1] Group 3: Long-term Agreements - Beijing Haibo Sichuang Technology Co., Ltd. has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL, committing to procure no less than 200 GWh of battery cells from CATL between 2026 and 2028 [2] - Shenzhen Kelu Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. maintains good relationships with battery cell suppliers and has signed volume-lock agreements to ensure supply for its energy storage business [2] - The trend of companies entering long-term agreements for procurement reflects a positive outlook on the long-term demand for energy storage batteries and contributes to the stability of the industry and supply chain [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 198 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 278% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 272%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 214 million yuan, up 478% year-on-year and 3058% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Lithium Business Performance - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Q3 2025 was 73,000 yuan per ton, up 12% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 68,700 yuan per ton, up 6% quarter-on-quarter. The company experienced a significant increase in lithium salt product sales, achieving a record high for quarterly sales due to effective market strategy adjustments and strong customer feedback [11][11] - The company has improved its lithium ore self-sufficiency rate through the production of lithium concentrate from its Zimbabwe Kamativi lithium mine, positively impacting the cost structure of lithium salt products [11] Civil Explosives Business Performance - The civil explosives business showed stable overall performance in the first three quarters of 2025, although total production and sales value declined due to intensified market competition and falling product prices. The company expanded its sales channels and saw significant growth in civil explosive product exports, contributing to stable profitability in this segment [11] Solid-State Battery Development - The company is actively advancing the research and industrialization of key raw materials for solid-state batteries, achieving significant progress in the synthesis and mass production technology of lithium sulfide, a core material for solid electrolytes. The new synthesis process developed by the company has shown advantages in material cost, purity, and particle size control [11] Future Outlook - Both the lithium and civil explosives businesses are expected to experience growth turning points, with a shift towards collaborative development. The company anticipates substantial improvements in profitability and growth potential, driven by rising lithium prices and increased self-supply from its lithium resources, alongside efforts to expand its civil explosives business domestically and internationally [11]