Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma due to the lack of macroeconomic data, which undermines its confidence in decision-making [1][4] - Fitch Ratings predicts at least one interest rate cut by the end of the year, with a significant inflation pressure expected to push core inflation to 3.5% [2][6] - The ongoing government shutdown is disrupting key economic indicators, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to accelerate, with predictions of core inflation rising to 3.5% by year-end [6][7] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow between 1.5% and 2% this year, a significant slowdown from previous growth rates [10] - Emerging markets have shown resilience, with less-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation [11] Group 3 - The bond market is likely to face upward pressure on yields due to ongoing fiscal deficits, with 10-year Treasury yields expected to be around 4.4% to 4.5% in the coming years [9] - The global economic outlook remains challenging, with a projected growth rate of approximately 2.4% for the year, below historical trends [10][12] - There is a concern that the current positive sentiment may be overly optimistic, with potential negative trade data expected in the second half of the year [12]