Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve may not replicate the decisive and aggressive policy execution seen in previous cycles due to the conflicting dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment [3][11]. Economic Conditions - The labor market data is missing due to the government shutdown, and the economy is facing slowing pressures. Tariff policies are expected to accelerate inflation transmission, pushing core inflation to 3.5% in the second half of the year [4][8]. - The global economy is experiencing significant slowdown, with the U.S. economic growth expected to drop from nearly 3% in 2023 and 2024 to between 1.5% and 2% this year [13]. Federal Reserve's Challenges - The lack of reliable economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, leading to a "blind flying" situation without crucial labor market indicators [6][10]. - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts is influenced by the current economic conditions, with expectations of only one more rate cut this year as they await better information [10][11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to inflation has been slower than expected, but it is anticipated to accelerate, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.5% by year-end [8][12]. - The current high tariff rates, around 16%-17%, are expected to further complicate the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and labor market conditions [8][12]. Global Economic Outlook - The global growth rate is projected to be around 2.4% this year, significantly below the historical trend of 2.7%-2.8% [13]. - Emerging markets have shown relative resilience, with smaller-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation, but there are concerns about potential negative trade data in the second half of the year [14][15][16]. Future Risks - The inflation shock from U.S. tariffs may pose a significant downside risk to the global economy in 2026, potentially leading to a reassessment of market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path [17].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma due to the lack of macroeconomic data, which undermines its confidence in decision-making [1][4] - Fitch Ratings predicts at least one interest rate cut by the end of the year, with a significant inflation pressure expected to push core inflation to 3.5% [2][6] - The ongoing government shutdown is disrupting key economic indicators, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to accelerate, with predictions of core inflation rising to 3.5% by year-end [6][7] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow between 1.5% and 2% this year, a significant slowdown from previous growth rates [10] - Emerging markets have shown resilience, with less-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation [11] Group 3 - The bond market is likely to face upward pressure on yields due to ongoing fiscal deficits, with 10-year Treasury yields expected to be around 4.4% to 4.5% in the coming years [9] - The global economic outlook remains challenging, with a projected growth rate of approximately 2.4% for the year, below historical trends [10][12] - There is a concern that the current positive sentiment may be overly optimistic, with potential negative trade data expected in the second half of the year [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply surplus and global economic slowdown concerns are pushing US crude oil prices towards the lowest level since the post - COVID - 19 recovery. The simultaneous increase in production by the US and OPEC has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's plan to meet with Putin again, have alleviated the risk sentiment in the crude oil market, accelerating the decline in oil prices. The Indian attitude towards stopping the purchase of Russian oil is unclear. The domestic crude oil has reached the lowest level of the year, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The SC2511 contract is expected to trade in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump plans to meet with Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war; Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases from December; Saudi Aramco CEO warns of potential supply shortages if the industry doesn't increase exploration and investment [3]. - **Basis**: On October 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.51 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.11 per barrel. The basis was $28.63 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.211 million barrels, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of October 7, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price is weak, SC2511 trades in the 430 - 440 range, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US WTI crude oil futures closed at $56.99 per barrel on Thursday, down 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. In the past year, it has fallen by 19%. The increase in production by OPEC and the US has led to a supply surplus. Lower oil prices benefit US consumers but pose challenges to the US oil industry [5]. - US oil producers reached a daily production of over 13.6 million barrels in July, and it is expected to remain at this level by the end of the year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict threatens refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased; there is a risk of US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further increasing production [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of crude oil have changed. For example, the price of UK Brent crude oil decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decrease of 1.66% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October show fluctuations in inventory levels. For example, API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: The net long positions of WTI crude oil funds have changed over time. As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The net long positions of Brent crude oil funds have also changed. As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].

Core Viewpoint - The combination of oversupply and concerns over a global economic slowdown is pushing U.S. crude oil prices to their lowest levels since the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated by simultaneous production increases from both the U.S. and OPEC [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed at $56.99 per barrel, down 2.2%, marking the lowest price since February 2021, with a 19% decline over the past year [1]. - The recent drop in oil prices is attributed to OPEC's decision to reverse previous production cuts to regain market share, while U.S. shale oil producers reached a record production level of over 13.6 million barrels per day in July [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Industry - The decline in oil prices is beneficial for U.S. consumers, leading to lower prices for gasoline, diesel, and heating oil, with the national average price for regular unleaded gasoline at $3.057 per gallon, approximately 15 cents lower than a year ago [4][9]. - However, the oil industry faces significant challenges, including shrinking profit margins and large-scale layoffs, as the price drop impacts their financial stability [4]. Group 3: OPEC and U.S. Production Dynamics - OPEC announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, maintaining the same increase as in October, as part of a strategy to reclaim market share from U.S. and other non-OPEC producers [5]. - Despite a decrease in the number of active oil rigs, U.S. producers are expected to maintain high production levels due to improved efficiency and the need to supply other fuels like natural gas and propane [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that U.S. oil production will remain around the record level of 13.6 million barrels per day by the end of the year, as producers are unlikely to slow down their operations due to significant investments in drilling projects [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency reported a significant increase in offshore oil inventories, with September seeing an increase of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day, the largest since the pandemic began [8].

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue expanding in the second half of 2025, but at a slower pace, influenced by uncertainties in U.S. policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][25] - U.S. economic growth is projected to slow to 1.0% year-on-year due to trade policy uncertainties and a cooling labor market, although tax cuts may provide some relief [1][43] - The Eurozone is recovering from a mild recession, with a GDP growth forecast of 0.5%, but risks remain if trade agreements with the U.S. are not reached [1][45] - China's economy is stabilizing with a projected growth rate of 4.6%, driven by exports and government stimulus, despite weak domestic demand [1][48] - Japan's economy faces downward risks with a growth forecast of 1.0%, impacted by tariffs and a strong yen [1][52] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation rates are generally declining across most economies, approaching central bank targets of around 2%, although some sectors, particularly services, may experience sticky inflation [1][31] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, while the European Central Bank is also likely to continue its easing cycle [1][36][44] - In Asia, central banks are adopting more accommodative monetary policies, with China expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance [1][37] Asset Class Views - The stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with recommendations for diversified investments in quality dividend stocks, technology stocks, and the Chinese market [2][67] - The bond market shows stable short-term yields, while long-term yields are elevated due to fiscal concerns, with a favorable outlook for investment-grade bonds in developed and emerging markets [2][75] - The outlook for commodities includes strong support for gold due to safe-haven demand, while oil prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions [2][67] Key Themes - The impact of Trump's "2.0" policies introduces trade and fiscal uncertainties, with tariffs raising costs and tax cuts providing short-term economic stimulation [2][12] - The global economy is in a temporary slowdown phase, which is not a recession, presenting opportunities for investors to capitalize on market volatility in the third quarter [2][12] - The transition of artificial intelligence from concept to application is creating investment opportunities, particularly in downstream sectors, with the U.S. and China as primary competitors [2][12]

10月11日凌晨，当多数人已进入梦乡，一位持有比特币的投资者在手机推送中看到价格从12.2万美元暴跌至10.39万美元，15分钟内账户缩水30%。 | < W | | | 纳斯达克指数(IXIC) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10-10 16:00:10 | | | | | 22204.43 | 昨收 | 23024.63 | 成交额 | 0 | | -820.20 | -3.56% | 六十 | 23043.52 | 成交上 | 0 | | 上 涨 | 385 | 平 昆 | 247 | 下 跌 | 2863 | | 最高价 | 23119.91 | 市盘率 | 43.4 | 近20日 | 0.29% | | 最低价 | 22193.07 | 市净率 | 7.42 | 今年来 | 14.98% | | 关于日本 | 五日 | 目K | 周K | 目K | | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 23856.19 | | | | | 3.61% | 市场对全球经济放缓的担忧瞬间爆发：消费者减少出行、企业收缩生产，原油需求预期骤降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging Printing (01975.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and an annual loss for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to reduced demand for printed products amid economic uncertainties [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue decreased by approximately 26.3% to around HKD 218 million [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders amounted to HKD 88.648 million, resulting in a loss per share of HKD 0.1847 [1] Market Conditions - The decline in revenue is attributed to a drop in printing income from greeting cards and paper gift sets [1] - Customers are adopting a more conservative spending approach due to concerns over global economic growth and high inflation, leading to reduced orders from both local and foreign clients [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in South Korea's exports in September due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, raising concerns for the trade-dependent South Korean economy [2][4]. Export Performance - South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of September fell by 10.6% year-on-year, while the adjusted export figure for August showed a growth of 6% [2]. - Unadjusted export figures for September indicated a growth of 13.5%, with total imports increasing by 9.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.89 billion [2]. Sector Analysis - Semiconductor exports, a key driver for this year's exports, grew by 27%, continuing the 30% increase seen in August, while automotive exports rose by approximately 15% [4]. - However, petrochemical products are facing challenges due to tariffs and weak global demand [4]. Tariff Impact - The implementation of a 15% general tariff by the U.S. on South Korean goods has created difficulties for exporters, despite smartphones and laptops remaining unaffected [4]. - There is a looming threat of expanded tariffs on semiconductors, as indicated by warnings from former President Trump [4]. Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding trade relations has dampened market sentiment, exacerbated by recent immigration enforcement actions that led to the detention of over 300 South Korean workers in Georgia [4].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging Printing (01975) anticipates a significant shift from a profit of approximately HKD 17.1 million last year to a projected loss between HKD 80 million and HKD 95 million for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The expected loss is primarily attributed to impairment assessments conducted by management, resulting in impairment losses on properties, plants, equipment, and right-of-use assets estimated between HKD 80 million and HKD 95 million [1] - The company has slightly reduced the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses; however, these savings are offset by ongoing fixed selling, distribution, and financing costs that do not decrease in line with revenue declines [1] Market Conditions - Concerns over a global economic slowdown and widespread inflation have led consumers to adopt more conservative spending behaviors, resulting in cautious expenditure on printing and promotional products [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Printing (01975) anticipates a significant loss for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, projecting a loss between approximately HKD 80 million to HKD 95 million, compared to a profit of about HKD 17.1 million in the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The expected loss is primarily attributed to impairment assessments conducted by management, resulting in impairment losses on properties, plants, equipment, and right-of-use assets estimated between approximately HKD 80 million to HKD 95 million [1] - The company has slightly reduced the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses; however, these savings are offset by ongoing fixed selling, distribution expenses, and financing costs, which do not decrease in line with revenue declines [1] Market Conditions - Concerns over a global economic slowdown and widespread inflation have led consumers to adopt more conservative spending behaviors, resulting in cautious spending on printing and promotional products, ultimately causing a decline in revenue [1]