2.1 增长温和放缓 2025 年全球经济呈现温和放缓态势，未来的不确定性增大，各大机构的预测存在明显的差异化。 | 机构 | 2025年全球增速预测 | 预测时间和核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经合组织 (OECD) | 3.2%(预计) | 2025年12月发布报告,认为经济"韧性超出预期",但风险 正在累积。 | | 国际货币基金组织 (IMF) | 3.2%(预计) | 2025 年 10 月上调预期，认为韧性部分源于"前置进口"等短 期因素,增长基础仍脆弱。 | | 联合国 (UN) | 2.4%(预计) | 2025年5月发布报告,强调贸易冲突与政策不确定性导致前 | | | | 景恶化。 | 2.2 主要经济体明显分化 对资产的影响主要集中在以下几个方面： 1. 贸易摩擦与供应链压力： 美国的关税政策不仅拖累本国消费，而且还推高了企业成本，使得通胀更加顽固。黄金作为抵御不确定性和通胀的工具，获得支撑后大幅上涨。与此同时， 供应链中断的风险也为原油等大宗商品增添了风险溢价。 2. 政策两难和美元的强势： 各国央行均陷入既要遏制通胀，又要刺激经济的两难困境。美联储受制于通 ...

据初步估算，这场暴跌使全球金银类资产市值蒸发近2万亿美元，成为自10月下旬以来最严重的单日下 跌事件，引发了市场对贵金属牛市是否终结的深切担忧。 文 | 万联万象 2025年12月29日，全球贵金属市场迎来黑色星期一，遭遇了猛烈的抛售风暴。 当日，黄金、白银、铂金、钯金等主要贵金属品种全线暴跌，跌幅普遍超过4%，其中铂金和钯金跌幅 更是高达13%-15%。这场突如其来的抛售潮不仅使纽约和全球各大交易所的贵金属期货价格大幅下挫， 更导致追踪金银矿业公司的相关指数同步重挫。 首先，全球主要金矿企业的市值大幅缩水，矿业股指数的暴跌反映了投资者对行业盈利前景的悲观预 期。其次，持有大量实物黄金的央行、ETF基金及机构投资者的资产组合遭受重创。第三，与贵金属挂 钩的结构性金融产品面临估值压力和赎回风险。 暴跌实况与市场表现 周一纽约尾盘交易时段，贵金属市场抛压集中爆发。现货黄金单日暴跌4.47%，收于每盎司4330.31美 元，创下自10月21日（当日跌5.30%）以来最差单日表现。 从日内走势观察，黄金在亚太盘初曾微幅上扬至4549.64美元，随后呈现平缓下跌态势，直至纽约时段 21：39开始加速下跌，23：22刷新 ...

在美国关税对制造业的持续拖累以及对全球经济放缓的担忧加剧之际，日本11月份工业产值出现回落。 根据周五公布的政府数据，工业产值下降2.6%，逆转了10月份1.5%的升势。该降幅大于1.8%的预期降 幅。在东京和华盛顿今年早些时候达成一项贸易协议后，许多日本对美出口产品仍被加征15%的关税。 外界关注的焦点仍然是，这些成本是否会侵蚀日本公司的投资计划。不过，周五的数据显示，企业预计 产值将很快回升，预计12月份将增长1.3%，1月份将大幅增长8.0%。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 在美国关税对制造业的持续拖累以及对全球经济放缓的担忧加剧之际，日本11月份工业产值出现回落。 根据周五公布的政府数据，工业产值下降2.6%，逆转了10月份1.5%的升势。该降幅大于1.8%的预期降 幅。在东京和华盛顿今年早些时候达成一项贸易协议后，许多日本对美出口产品仍被加征15%的关税。 外界关注的焦点仍然是，这些成本是否会侵蚀日本公司的投资计划。不过，周五的数据显示，企业预计 产值将很快回升，预计12月份将增长1.3%，1月份将大幅增长8.0%。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网12月24日讯 ，埃科光电在接受投资者提问时表示，公司上市后受全球经济放缓、宏观经济 环境波动及新能源行业周期变化、下游客户需求放缓等多种因素影响，导致了公司业绩的阶段性波动。 管理层积极应对，围绕长期发展布局：一、引进高端人才，强化技术创新与团队建设；二、优化资源配 置，聚焦重点行业重点客户，提升资源投入效率；三、依托产品应用优势，优化现有产品设计，提升产 品性能、降低成本；四、以技术优势不断扩展产品线，为公司发展持续注入动力。2025年随运营优化、 管理提效及下游行业回暖，业绩逐步恢复。公司管理层将持续夯实发展质量，对未来业绩充满信心。 ...

基本面： 周五（12月12日）亚市早盘，现货白银交投于61.85美元/盎司附近。基本面现货白银更是一度上涨1.44%至62.87美元/盎司，本周连续三个交易日刷新历史记 录高点。美联储的最新政策声明显示，此次降息后，他们可能暂时按兵不动，等待就业市场和通胀数据提供更清晰的指引。白银强势领跑贵金属板块值得注 意的是，此轮行情中白银的表现尤为抢眼，现货白银急升近3%，收报每盎司63.54美元，接近盘中创下的64.29美元历史新高。白银似乎正在拉动黄金上涨， 同时带动铂金和钯金等其他贵金属跟进。这种联动效应源于白银的双重属性：一方面作为工业金属，受全球制造业复苏预期支撑；另一方面作为贵金属，受 益于避险情绪升温。 白银的势头强劲，不仅反映了市场对通胀和经济不确定性的担忧，还凸显了贵金属板块整体的复苏迹象。与黄金相比，白银的波动性更大，但其历史新高也 为黄金提供了上行动力，形成一种互补上涨的格局。投资者需注意，白银的工业需求占比更高，若全球经济放缓，其涨幅可能面临回调风险，但当前环境 下，白银的领跑角色无疑强化了黄金市场的多头氛围。地缘政治风险与就业数据悬念全球地缘政治动荡为黄金提供了额外支撑。美国总统特朗普表示将协 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 へ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 8.220 | -2.38% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 4.300 | -2.05% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.330 | -0.75% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | | 7.170 -0.69% | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 21.000 | -0.28% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 7.210 | -0.14% | 消息上，整体地缘影响呈中性偏空，对油价的支撑作用正在弱化。WTI 1月原油期货昨日收跌0.63美 元，跌幅1.07%，报58.25美元/桶；布伦特2月原油期货收跌0.55美元，跌幅0.88%，报61.94美元/桶。 近期国际油价（如布伦特原油）从高位显著回落，是导致股价调整的最直接原因。市场担忧：1. 全球经 济放缓导致原油需求疲软；2. 地缘政治溢价消退；3. 美国释放战略石油储备（SPR） 等潜在供应增 加。国内成品油定价机制存在"地板价"保护，但在油价下行周期中，炼化板块的利 ...

黄金股、能源板块走低。美国能源跌超5%，金田、黄金资源跌超3%，泛美白银、科尔黛伦矿业跌超2%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙跌超1%。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.65%。小鹏汽车跌近8%，爱奇艺跌超3%，蔚来、哔哩哔哩跌超2%，阿里巴巴跌近2%。 昨夜，美股科技股集体上涨，中概股表现相对弱势。黄金、白银则继续飙涨。 当地时间周二（12月2日），美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.39%，标普500指数涨0.25%，纳指涨0.59%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 47474.46c | 0.39% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23413.67c | 0.59% | | 标普500 | 6829.37c | 0.25% | 热门科技股多数上涨。苹果涨超1%，为连续第七个交易日上涨，续创历史新高；英特尔涨超8%，英伟达涨近1%。 | 分时 多日 日 周 月 季 半年 年 E ▼ F9 前复权 超级疆加 画线 | 工具 (2) | | 苹果(APPLE) | | AAPL | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve may not replicate the decisive and aggressive policy execution seen in previous cycles due to the conflicting dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment [3][11]. Economic Conditions - The labor market data is missing due to the government shutdown, and the economy is facing slowing pressures. Tariff policies are expected to accelerate inflation transmission, pushing core inflation to 3.5% in the second half of the year [4][8]. - The global economy is experiencing significant slowdown, with the U.S. economic growth expected to drop from nearly 3% in 2023 and 2024 to between 1.5% and 2% this year [13]. Federal Reserve's Challenges - The lack of reliable economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, leading to a "blind flying" situation without crucial labor market indicators [6][10]. - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts is influenced by the current economic conditions, with expectations of only one more rate cut this year as they await better information [10][11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to inflation has been slower than expected, but it is anticipated to accelerate, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.5% by year-end [8][12]. - The current high tariff rates, around 16%-17%, are expected to further complicate the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and labor market conditions [8][12]. Global Economic Outlook - The global growth rate is projected to be around 2.4% this year, significantly below the historical trend of 2.7%-2.8% [13]. - Emerging markets have shown relative resilience, with smaller-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation, but there are concerns about potential negative trade data in the second half of the year [14][15][16]. Future Risks - The inflation shock from U.S. tariffs may pose a significant downside risk to the global economy in 2026, potentially leading to a reassessment of market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path [17].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma due to the lack of macroeconomic data, which undermines its confidence in decision-making [1][4] - Fitch Ratings predicts at least one interest rate cut by the end of the year, with a significant inflation pressure expected to push core inflation to 3.5% [2][6] - The ongoing government shutdown is disrupting key economic indicators, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to accelerate, with predictions of core inflation rising to 3.5% by year-end [6][7] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow between 1.5% and 2% this year, a significant slowdown from previous growth rates [10] - Emerging markets have shown resilience, with less-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation [11] Group 3 - The bond market is likely to face upward pressure on yields due to ongoing fiscal deficits, with 10-year Treasury yields expected to be around 4.4% to 4.5% in the coming years [9] - The global economic outlook remains challenging, with a projected growth rate of approximately 2.4% for the year, below historical trends [10][12] - There is a concern that the current positive sentiment may be overly optimistic, with potential negative trade data expected in the second half of the year [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply surplus and global economic slowdown concerns are pushing US crude oil prices towards the lowest level since the post - COVID - 19 recovery. The simultaneous increase in production by the US and OPEC has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's plan to meet with Putin again, have alleviated the risk sentiment in the crude oil market, accelerating the decline in oil prices. The Indian attitude towards stopping the purchase of Russian oil is unclear. The domestic crude oil has reached the lowest level of the year, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The SC2511 contract is expected to trade in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump plans to meet with Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war; Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases from December; Saudi Aramco CEO warns of potential supply shortages if the industry doesn't increase exploration and investment [3]. - **Basis**: On October 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.51 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.11 per barrel. The basis was $28.63 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.211 million barrels, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of October 7, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price is weak, SC2511 trades in the 430 - 440 range, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US WTI crude oil futures closed at $56.99 per barrel on Thursday, down 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. In the past year, it has fallen by 19%. The increase in production by OPEC and the US has led to a supply surplus. Lower oil prices benefit US consumers but pose challenges to the US oil industry [5]. - US oil producers reached a daily production of over 13.6 million barrels in July, and it is expected to remain at this level by the end of the year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict threatens refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased; there is a risk of US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further increasing production [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of crude oil have changed. For example, the price of UK Brent crude oil decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decrease of 1.66% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October show fluctuations in inventory levels. For example, API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: The net long positions of WTI crude oil funds have changed over time. As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The net long positions of Brent crude oil funds have also changed. As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].