白宫管理和预算办公室发表声明支持该法案，称这将"最终结束国会民主党人强加给美国人民的史上最 长政府关门"。白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt表示，白宫"非常有希望"政府关门将在周三晚结束，并指责 民主党应对经济损失负责。 这场持续六周的僵局导致政府雇员被迫休假、所有联邦政府活动关闭、营养补助计划暂停，以及机场延 误加剧。两党在责任归属上相互指责，民调显示选民更多指责共和党，但民主党的责任度也达到30年来 最高水平。 美国众议院将于美东时间12日周三晚间对一项临时拨款法案进行投票表决，众议院共和党人透露，最终 投票将在美东时间晚7点左右进行。这意味着，已进入第43天的美国史上最长联邦政府关门危机即将落 幕。 众议院共和党领袖Steve Scalise表示，虽然众议院的多数优势微弱，但预计能争取到足够的民主党议员 支持使法案过关。参议院周一已批准该法案，将为政府提供资金至明年1月30日，并为受关门影响的联 邦雇员提供补发工资。总统特朗普已表示将签署该法案。 共和党推进计划 Scalise周三表示，众议院共和党领导层希望在下周全力推进工作，以弥补政府关门期间错过的六周时 间。他说："我想重新安排日程，创造 ...

【要闻速递】 ADP于周二发布的数据显示，在截至10月25日的过去四周内，私营部门平均每周减少的就业岗位数量超 过了11,250个。这一数据与上周公布的10月份就业增长情况形成了鲜明对比，暗示劳动力市场可能正出 现疲软迹象。ADP此次公布的低于预期的就业数据，再次引发了市场对于美联储可能进一步放宽货币政 策的猜测，从而对金价构成了支撑。 根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示，当前市场预计美联储在12月份降息25个基点的概率接近 68%，而到了明年1月份，这一概率有望上升至约80%。较低的利率环境通常会降低持有无息黄金的机 会成本。 摘要周三（11月12日）亚洲交易时段早盘，黄金价格延续近期涨势攀升至4,140美元附近。市场对美联 储年底前降息的预期持续升温，成为推动金价走强的核心因素。投资者正密切关注当日稍晚美联储官员 即将发表的讲话，以期捕捉货币政策走向的线索。白银价格在欧洲交易时段早盘结束五连阳走势，小幅 回落至51.10美元附近。美元需求的复苏令这种白色金属承压下行。铂金价格日内一度尝试突破1600美 元关键关口，但未能维持上行动力，最终回吐涨幅。 周三（11月12日）亚洲交易时段早盘，黄金价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected cash outflow from the US Treasury General Account, the increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, the provision of liquidity by the Fed through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRP), geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks may support precious metal prices [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Futures and Spot Data**: For gold, on 2025 - 11 - 11, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 933.02 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 51,204. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 917.64 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 37,088. For silver, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 11,719 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 1,015,910. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,480 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 619,304. In the international market, the COMEX gold futures closing price was 4,013.40 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 242,570. The London gold spot price was 4,090.25 dollars/ounce. The COMEX silver futures closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 16,720. The London silver spot price was 50.04 dollars/ounce [1] - **Inventory and Position Data**: Gold inventory in Shanghai was 89,616 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai gold T + D was 254,730. The inventory of COMEX gold was 37,729,455.44 (in troy ounces), and the position was 300,451. Silver inventory in Shanghai was 609,978 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai silver T + D was 4,236,766. The inventory of COMEX silver was 479,104,695.08 (in troy ounces), and the position was 96,354 [1] - **Price Difference and Basis Data**: The spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was 1.10, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.10. For silver, the spread between near - month and far - month futures was 31.00, and the basis was 11.00. In the international market, the spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was - 15.20, and the basis was - 33.15. The spread between near - month and far - month silver futures was - 0.73, and the basis was 0.71 [1] Important Information - The US government shutdown may continue for several more days. After the Senate passed a procedural vote on the temporary appropriation bill, the House's voting time is undetermined. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and advocates a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860, and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42, and the resistance level is around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000, and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The hope that the US government shutdown will end has led to a rapid increase in risk appetite, causing significant rebounds in gold and silver prices. The optimistic expectation of the US ending the shutdown and the rise in risk appetite are driving the continued recovery of gold and silver prices under emotional influence [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened as the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and concerns about the escalation of China-US tariffs) have significantly improved and even shown a turning trend [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, leading to a significant rebound in gold prices. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 2.83% to $4,123.40 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, risk appetite rebounded, and silver prices rose significantly. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 4.70% to $50.41 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with an increase in long positions [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and gold prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. The Shanghai gold premium remains around 0 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and silver prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. Additionally, silver being included in the US critical minerals list may reignite tariff concerns and provide support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's September trade balance and current account - Time TBD: Citigroup's 20th China Summit in Shenzhen from November 11 - 12, G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Canada - 10:00 New Zealand's Q4 2 - year inflation expectation - 15:00 UK's September three - month ILO employment number and unemployment rate - 16:30 Speeches by Bank of England MPC member Greene, ECB Governing Council member Vujcic, and ECB Governing Council member and Dutch Central Bank President Olaf Sleijpen - 18:00 Eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's November ZEW economic sentiment index - 21:00 Speech by ECB Governing Council member Kocher - Next day 06:15 Participation of RBA Assistant Governor Jones in a fireside chat [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 2.65, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 12, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 170,662, an increase of 5,401 (3.27%) compared to November 9; the short position volume was 68,384, an increase of 776 (1.15%); the net position was 102,278, an increase of 4,625 (4.74%) [31]. - **Silver**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 353,561, a decrease of 1,037 (- 0.29%) compared to November 7; the short position volume was 261,865, an increase of 5,886 (2.30%); the net position was 91,696, a decrease of 6,923 (- 7.02%) [33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Domestic inventory increase restricts the price increase of lead [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 17,505 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of lead was 2,045 dollars/ton, up 0.42% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 31,610 lots, an increase of 4,404 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 10,307 lots, an increase of 3,259 lots [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 58,725 lots, a decrease of 1,093 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,524 lots, a decrease of 1,470 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -8.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 23,195 tons, an increase of 1,292 tons; the LME lead inventory was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [1]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -459.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - contract was -286.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.93 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 77 yuan/ton [1]. News - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening safeguards [1]. - The US government is expected to end the shutdown, and the S&P and Nasdaq, two major US stock indices, posted their largest gains in five months [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1].

真是一言不合就发钱。 钱从哪里来？ 特朗普宣布了一个大消息。 什么大消息？ 发钱！ 用特朗普的话说，除高收入人群外，每个美国人，将至少获得2000美元。 特朗普的回答：来自关税。 用特朗普的话说，反对关税的人都是傻瓜！因为关税，"我们现在是世界上最富有、最受尊敬的国家，通货膨胀率几乎为零，股市也创下历史新高……我们 每年收入数万亿美元，很快就能开始偿还高达37万亿美元的巨额债务。美国的投资额创下历史新高，工厂和企业纷纷涌现……" 一句话，关税是万能的，美国现在有的是钱。 真是这样吗？ 我们回头再细说。 下一个问题，为什么要发钱？ 特朗普没具体说，原因，我觉得，至少有两个。 第一个原因，向美国最高法院示意。 因为美国最高法院正在审理关税案件，特朗普很焦虑，此前他就称，最高法院的裁决结果，对美国"生死攸关"。 为什么？ "如果（政府）胜诉，会为我们带来巨大、公平的财政与国家安全局势……失败的话，我们面对那些占我们便宜多年的其他国家，可以说是毫无抵抗之力。" 但从目前形势来看，特朗普不乐观。 最高法院共9名大法官，6名偏向共和党，其中3名还是特朗普亲自提名的。但特朗普的关税，毕竟太有争议了。 要知道，在美国，征税的 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices are struggling to maintain upward momentum, remaining below $4000 despite previous rebounds [1][2] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking clear directional bias [2][3] Market Analysis - Gold has experienced an 11% pullback from its historical high of $4382 reached on October 20, remaining in a consolidation mode for the eighth consecutive trading day [3] - Strong U.S. private sector employment data and earnings reports have countered the dollar's retreat due to the unprecedented government shutdown [3] - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the expected 25,000, while the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.4 [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month are approximately 62%, down from 69% prior to the data release [3] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for gold appears neutral to slightly bearish, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midpoint [6] - Gold is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from its parabolic rise since August 19 [6] - Buyers need a daily close above $4000 to target the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,079, while strong selling pressure is expected around the psychological level of $4000 [6] - Support levels are identified at $3930, with further support at the October 28 low of $3887 and a demand zone between $3865-$3850 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are complex and diverse, with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market price continued to weaken significantly yesterday. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous trading day. The smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.68% compared to the previous trading day. Affected by pollution warnings, some northern plants stopped production. The market is expected to be in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract increased by 0.44% compared to the previous trading day. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased significantly, but the import ore loss expanded. The consumption is in the off - season, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. The supply side is marginally loose, and the demand side has mixed factors. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the recommended strategy is to operate within a range [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 2.79%. The supply side is gradually reducing production, and the demand side is relatively balanced. The price is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract price decreased by 4.52%. The supply is expected to decrease slightly in November, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to have short - term correction pressure but is supported by demand, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 4.19%. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the downstream demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to try to buy on dips or consider selling put options [2]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the domestic demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [2][3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the RB01 reference range of 2980 - 3050 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The supply - demand situation is neutral and deteriorating. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with the I01 reference range of 750 - 780 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The steel mill profit has deteriorated, and the supply - side inventory is differentiated. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1230 - 1280 [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. The supply side has a slight reduction in US soybeans and an expected increase in South American soybeans. The demand side has improved export expectations. The US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase, and the domestic market is also expected to be volatile [5][6]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price mostly rose. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the price is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded slightly. The supply in Malaysia is higher than expected, and the export is expected to increase. The oils and fats market is weak and differentiated, and the recommended strategy is to focus on reverse spreads [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price decreased. The international market is expected to increase in production, and the domestic market has a short - term rebound. The recommended strategy is to sell short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell. The international and domestic cotton markets have different situations. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies, with the strategy range of 13400 - 13700 [6]. - **Eggs**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The egg price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: The futures price was weak, and the spot price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased. The cold - storage situation in Gansu is not optimistic, and the apple disease in Shaanxi affects the market. The trading in Shandong is active. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. The recommended strategy is to take profit on long PX positions and sell short the PTA processing fee on rallies in the far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price decreased. The rainy season in Thailand is about to end, and the inventory is expected to increase. The price is under short - term pressure [8][9]. - **PP**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the inventory is accumulating. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price is oscillating. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and if the Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it can be sold short on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve may not replicate the decisive and aggressive policy execution seen in previous cycles due to the conflicting dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment [3][11]. Economic Conditions - The labor market data is missing due to the government shutdown, and the economy is facing slowing pressures. Tariff policies are expected to accelerate inflation transmission, pushing core inflation to 3.5% in the second half of the year [4][8]. - The global economy is experiencing significant slowdown, with the U.S. economic growth expected to drop from nearly 3% in 2023 and 2024 to between 1.5% and 2% this year [13]. Federal Reserve's Challenges - The lack of reliable economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, leading to a "blind flying" situation without crucial labor market indicators [6][10]. - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts is influenced by the current economic conditions, with expectations of only one more rate cut this year as they await better information [10][11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to inflation has been slower than expected, but it is anticipated to accelerate, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.5% by year-end [8][12]. - The current high tariff rates, around 16%-17%, are expected to further complicate the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and labor market conditions [8][12]. Global Economic Outlook - The global growth rate is projected to be around 2.4% this year, significantly below the historical trend of 2.7%-2.8% [13]. - Emerging markets have shown relative resilience, with smaller-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation, but there are concerns about potential negative trade data in the second half of the year [14][15][16]. Future Risks - The inflation shock from U.S. tariffs may pose a significant downside risk to the global economy in 2026, potentially leading to a reassessment of market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path [17].

Group 1 - The atmosphere surrounding the U.S. government shutdown has shifted as key deadlines approach, injecting urgency into bipartisan discussions that have been stagnant for weeks [1] - Senate Majority Leader Schumer indicated that there is increasing pressure on Republicans to negotiate, especially with the looming threat of food benefit interruptions and delays in air travel [1] - A growing number of Democratic lawmakers, including prominent progressives, are expressing support for independent legislation to mitigate the impacts of the government shutdown [1] Group 2 - Republican leaders are quietly intensifying internal discussions about the next steps, considering various versions of a new temporary funding bill, with options to delay funding issues until January 21 or even March [2] - There is a division among Republicans regarding the funding delay, with some hardliners favoring a longer postponement until December 2026, while defense hawks oppose this idea [2] - Senate Majority Leader Thune stated that any temporary funding bill expiring before the end of the year is unfeasible, emphasizing that a resolution is unlikely before December [3]