关键矿物短缺
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关键矿物短缺或成全球气候行动新挑战!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The transition to clean energy, centered on photovoltaic, solar, and wind energy, is essential for meeting the commitments of the Paris Agreement, but it is increasingly dependent on critical minerals, which are vital for decarbonizing the energy system and achieving temperature control goals by the end of the century [1][6]. Group 1: Research Findings - A recent study published in Nature Climate Change highlights the potential shortages of over ten critical minerals, including indium, silver, and tin, which could disrupt energy transition expectations in China [1][4]. - The research team developed a framework that integrates mineral constraints into climate scenario analysis, revealing the "resource-climate" linkage effect that traditional models overlook [4][5]. Group 2: Mineral Shortage Implications - The study quantifies the demand and shortage risks for 40 critical minerals across 17 energy technologies, indicating that all 557 mitigation pathways will face mineral shortages by 2100, with some pathways potentially lacking up to 12 types of minerals [5][6]. - Regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia may experience supply gaps for up to 24 types of minerals, directly impacting the development and application of solar, wind, nuclear, and energy storage technologies [5][6]. Group 3: Recommendations and Strategies - The research team suggests enhancing global trade cooperation, improving recycling efficiency, and actively developing alternative materials to mitigate potential mineral shortages [5][6]. - A balanced "technology-policy-market" mechanism is recommended to address the challenges of resource supply while achieving emission reduction targets [5][6].