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地缘政治和兵团体制交织下新疆债务风险几何?
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-04-17 06:38
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Benefiting from continuous strong support from the central government, the uniqueness of the Corps system, and its prominent resource endowment and development foundation, Xinjiang has a strong willingness to repay debts and a good foundation for debt repayment. Despite the existing debt pressure on local governments and platform enterprises, the overall regional debt risk is controllable. However, factors such as the high dependence on resource-based industries, the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang, rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement, and the information and resource allocation under the "dual-track system" of the autonomous region and the Corps may pose constraints on debt management [7][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Will Supported by Central Policy Empowerment and the Resilience of the Corps System - Xinjiang has a unique geopolitical position and a prominent strategic status, with large-scale rigid expenditure needs. Its economic and fiscal strength is limited, and local fiscal self-sufficiency is weak. The central government has been providing support policies and large-scale transfer payments, which strongly support its strong debt repayment will [4][11]. - In 2024, Xinjiang received a total of 418.284 billion yuan in general budget and government fund budget subsidies from the central government. The scale of general budget subsidies from the central government in recent years has been among the top in ethnic minority autonomous regions and the five northwestern provinces [14]. - The special Corps system strengthens Xinjiang's overall debt repayment will. The "Agricultural Sixth Division default event" in 2018 reflected the problem of debt repayment resource mismatch caused by the deep - seated interwoven relationship between the autonomous region and the Corps system, but it also became an opportunity to strengthen debt management [19]. - After the default event, Xinjiang and the Corps strengthened debt risk control, increased the investigation of hidden debts, and established a debt risk accountability system. The central government also supported debt risk resolution through transfer payments and special bond quota allocation [21]. - In terms of historical debt repayment performance, Xinjiang has basically held the bottom line of urban investment debt risk. Except for the 2018 Agricultural Sixth Division bond default, there have been no other bond default events, and there are few credit risk events such as non - standard defaults and bill overdue [24]. 2. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Guarantee Ability under the Linkage of Resource Economy and Central Support - Supported by policies and resource endowments, Xinjiang's economy and finance have maintained a relatively fast growth trend. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, Xinjiang has shifted its focus to economic development, and the "Ten Industrial Clusters" development plan has been released, with good future economic development prospects [27][30]. - Xinjiang's fiscal revenue is resource - driven. Abundant resources can provide liquidity support for debt risk prevention, and there is still room for industrial structure upgrading. Its low dependence on land finance makes its fiscal revenue less affected by the real estate downturn [34]. - However, the high dependence on resource - based industries and the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang lead to insufficient economic stability. Rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement may hinder debt resolution [37][42]. 3. Analysis of Xinjiang's Local Debt Repayment Pressure under the Background of the Package Debt Resolution Policy - Xinjiang's overall debt scale and debt ratio are at the middle and lower levels in the country. The debt repayment pressure exists but is relatively controllable, and there is still some room for debt - raising in future economic development [6]. - Since the implementation of the package debt resolution policy, Xinjiang has issued a large - scale of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds to resolve local government debts. The regional financing environment has been effectively improved, the issuance cost of platform bonds has significantly decreased, and the bond term has been extended, effectively alleviating the debt pressure [6][50]. 4. Summary Xinjiang has large - scale rigid expenditure needs, limited economic and fiscal strength, and weak local fiscal self - sufficiency. The government and enterprises have certain debt pressure. However, with the support of the central government and the improvement of debt management, the region has good development prospects. Although there are some factors restricting debt management, the overall regional debt risk is controllable [55].