Economic Growth - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Yunnan's economic output is expected to increase by approximately 680 billion yuan compared to 2020, equivalent to creating another Kunming [1] - Yunnan's economic total reached 2 trillion yuan in 2018, projected to surpass 3 trillion yuan in 2023 and reach 3.15 trillion yuan in 2024, with per capita GDP exceeding 65,000 yuan [1] - The share of the private economy in the regional GDP is expected to rise from 46.5% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [1] Investment and Industry - The proportion of industrial investment in fixed asset investment is projected to increase from 26.7% in 2020 to 52.1% in 2024, with R&D expenditure growing at an annual rate of 12.1% [1] - Traditional industries such as energy and non-ferrous metals continue to play a crucial role, while new sectors like green aluminum, silicon photovoltaic, and new energy batteries are emerging as new growth engines [2] Social and Environmental Development - The average annual growth rate of income for farmers is projected at 8%, with poverty-stricken counties seeing an average annual growth of 8.6% [3] - The air quality in cities at or above the prefecture level is expected to reach a good rate of 99.1% by 2024, with major water bodies maintaining stable and compliant water quality [2] - The total tourism expenditure in Yunnan is expected to reach 1.14 trillion yuan in 2024, with tourist numbers reaching 3.9 million [3]

Group 1: Resource Economy Development - Yunnan has positioned resource economy as a key pillar of its economic strategy, with the value added of key resource industries accounting for approximately 45% of GDP [1] - The province is enhancing resource utilization through a comprehensive approach, including policy and financial support, to accelerate the development of key industries [1] - Major manufacturing projects are being promoted to drive industrial cluster development, with approximately 75% of large-scale industrial enterprises concentrated in resource economy industries [1] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - Yunnan aims to become a strong province in the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an industrial output value exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2024 [2] - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals reached 819.45 million tons, accounting for 10.35% of the national total, ranking fourth in the country [2] - The industrial output value of the non-ferrous metals sector grew by 29% in the first half of the year, with a production increase of 17.4% [2] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - Yunnan is focusing on highland characteristic agriculture, maintaining a leading position in investment scale and production of key agricultural products [3] - The total output value of key agricultural industries reached 2.75 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from sectors like fresh-cut flowers, coffee, and tea [3] - Two agricultural clusters, namely Sanqi and dairy, have been recognized as national characteristic advantage industry clusters [3] Group 4: Tourism Industry - Yunnan is transforming its tourism industry, aiming to attract 700 million visitors and achieve a total tourism expenditure of 1.14 trillion yuan by 2024 [3] - In the first half of the year, the province received 370 million tourists, marking a 10.8% year-on-year increase, with tourism expenditure exceeding 650 billion yuan [3] - The number of residents engaged in tourism activities surged by 45.4%, indicating a robust growth trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Benefiting from continuous strong support from the central government, the uniqueness of the Corps system, and its prominent resource endowment and development foundation, Xinjiang has a strong willingness to repay debts and a good foundation for debt repayment. Despite the existing debt pressure on local governments and platform enterprises, the overall regional debt risk is controllable. However, factors such as the high dependence on resource-based industries, the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang, rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement, and the information and resource allocation under the "dual-track system" of the autonomous region and the Corps may pose constraints on debt management [7][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Will Supported by Central Policy Empowerment and the Resilience of the Corps System - Xinjiang has a unique geopolitical position and a prominent strategic status, with large-scale rigid expenditure needs. Its economic and fiscal strength is limited, and local fiscal self-sufficiency is weak. The central government has been providing support policies and large-scale transfer payments, which strongly support its strong debt repayment will [4][11]. - In 2024, Xinjiang received a total of 418.284 billion yuan in general budget and government fund budget subsidies from the central government. The scale of general budget subsidies from the central government in recent years has been among the top in ethnic minority autonomous regions and the five northwestern provinces [14]. - The special Corps system strengthens Xinjiang's overall debt repayment will. The "Agricultural Sixth Division default event" in 2018 reflected the problem of debt repayment resource mismatch caused by the deep - seated interwoven relationship between the autonomous region and the Corps system, but it also became an opportunity to strengthen debt management [19]. - After the default event, Xinjiang and the Corps strengthened debt risk control, increased the investigation of hidden debts, and established a debt risk accountability system. The central government also supported debt risk resolution through transfer payments and special bond quota allocation [21]. - In terms of historical debt repayment performance, Xinjiang has basically held the bottom line of urban investment debt risk. Except for the 2018 Agricultural Sixth Division bond default, there have been no other bond default events, and there are few credit risk events such as non - standard defaults and bill overdue [24]. 2. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Guarantee Ability under the Linkage of Resource Economy and Central Support - Supported by policies and resource endowments, Xinjiang's economy and finance have maintained a relatively fast growth trend. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, Xinjiang has shifted its focus to economic development, and the "Ten Industrial Clusters" development plan has been released, with good future economic development prospects [27][30]. - Xinjiang's fiscal revenue is resource - driven. Abundant resources can provide liquidity support for debt risk prevention, and there is still room for industrial structure upgrading. Its low dependence on land finance makes its fiscal revenue less affected by the real estate downturn [34]. - However, the high dependence on resource - based industries and the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang lead to insufficient economic stability. Rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement may hinder debt resolution [37][42]. 3. Analysis of Xinjiang's Local Debt Repayment Pressure under the Background of the Package Debt Resolution Policy - Xinjiang's overall debt scale and debt ratio are at the middle and lower levels in the country. The debt repayment pressure exists but is relatively controllable, and there is still some room for debt - raising in future economic development [6]. - Since the implementation of the package debt resolution policy, Xinjiang has issued a large - scale of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds to resolve local government debts. The regional financing environment has been effectively improved, the issuance cost of platform bonds has significantly decreased, and the bond term has been extended, effectively alleviating the debt pressure [6][50]. 4. Summary Xinjiang has large - scale rigid expenditure needs, limited economic and fiscal strength, and weak local fiscal self - sufficiency. The government and enterprises have certain debt pressure. However, with the support of the central government and the improvement of debt management, the region has good development prospects. Although there are some factors restricting debt management, the overall regional debt risk is controllable [55].