养殖成本管理

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上市猪企决战成本线,生猪产能出清预期再升温
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 11:29
Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pig farming industry in China is experiencing a significant increase in supply, leading to a decline in pig prices, which have fallen below the breakeven point for many companies [1][3][7]. Supply and Price Dynamics - In May, the total output of listed pig companies increased by 30% year-on-year, resulting in a surplus supply amid weak consumer demand, which caused pig prices to remain low [1][3]. - As of June 17, the national pig price was reported at 14.24 yuan/kg, down 24.13% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month, indicating a continued struggle below the breakeven price of 14 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The increase in supply is attributed to the seasonal decline in pork consumption during the second quarter, compounded by a lack of holiday demand [3][6]. Company Performance - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant sales figures despite the price drop. Muyuan sold 777,000 pigs in May, a 9% increase from the previous year, while Wens sold 315,540 pigs, a 32.64% increase [4][5]. - Smaller companies have also seen rapid growth in output, with companies like Zhengbang Technology and Dongrui achieving year-on-year growth rates of 158% and 122%, respectively [5]. Future Supply Expectations - The stock of breeding sows, which is crucial for future pig supply, stood at 40.38 million heads as of the end of April, with expectations for a reduction of about 1 million heads to alleviate oversupply [2][7]. - Analysts suggest that reducing the breeding sow stock will impact pig supply in the next 10 months, potentially stabilizing prices if demand does not improve [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - Companies are focusing on cost management as a key to profitability in a low-price environment. Muyuan's breeding cost has decreased to approximately 12.2 yuan/kg, allowing for a profit margin of about 3.3 yuan/kg at current sales prices [8]. - Wens also reported a decrease in breeding costs, which is crucial for maintaining profitability amid falling prices [8]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of limited price recovery due to persistent oversupply and weak demand. The focus is shifting towards cost control and operational efficiency as key competitive factors in the industry [7][8].