| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【综合分析】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 一、 前期产能释放有限 | 价格下跌幅度受限 | 3 | | 二、 供应过剩压力积聚 | 出栏量明显增加 | 3 | | 三、 出栏压力仍将体现 | 价格以偏弱运行为主 | 4 | | 四、 产能去化逐步开启 | 中长期价格仍有支撑 | 6 | | 第三部分 综合分析&策略评估 | 7 | | | 免责声明 | | 8 | 最近一段时间来，生猪盘面以及现货价格持续呈现快速回落态势，价格下行 压力明显放大。其中现货价格由 7 月上旬 15.26 元/公斤下跌至当前 11.3 元 /公斤左右，累积跌幅达到 26%。期货价格由前期 14745 元/吨高点下跌至 11320 元/吨，累积跌幅达到 23%。整体生猪期现货价格呈现较大幅度回落。 虽然近期猪价下跌带来一定去产能影响，但远月盘面并未对此有所反应，更 多以跟随现货以及近月下行为主。 【综合分析】 近期生猪价格持续回落主要因生猪产能开始进入集中释放期，前期规模企业 出栏量虽然较大，但在二次育肥以及主动减少出栏的影 ...

展望后市，张晓君认为，当前猪价已经进入磨底阶段。短期来看，供强需弱使猪价承压运行。中期来 看，2—6月全国新生仔猪数量环比增加，下半年生猪供给增长预期仍然存在，年底猪价上涨幅度受限。 长期来看，能繁母猪存栏量仍高于正常水平且生产效率同比提升，若排除疫病影响，则今年全年生猪产 能将持续提升。 国庆假期，本应是生猪的传统需求旺季，但市场却呈现"旺季不旺"的态势。全国生猪主流成交价在 11.0~12.6元/公斤区间运行，川渝地区成交价更是跌破11元/公斤大关。 10月9日，生猪期货跳空低开，主力合约最低触及11535元/吨的阶段性低点，截至午盘收盘下跌5.88%。 同时，成交量放大至5万余手，与9月30日相比增长逾30%。 事实上，为推动生猪产业高质量发展，农业农村部频频召开座谈会，提出了一系列重要举措。在产能调 控方面，明确要求严格落实相关举措，合理淘汰能繁母猪，适当调减能繁母猪存栏量，减少二次育肥， 控制肥猪出栏体重，严控新增产能。 "虽然政策层面持续释放积极信号，但实际产能去化速度不及预期。"蒋琴表示，生猪养殖行业自2024年 以来已经连续盈利约18个月，养殖端主动去产能的积极性并不高。根据国家统计局数据，2 ...

生猪异动点评：双节出栏激增，现货承压 图1：生猪出栏均重 图2：集团及散户出栏权重 广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者：期市有风险 入市需谨慎 Page 1 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 朱迪（投资咨询资格编号：Z0015979） 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 行情导读：节后生猪盘面大幅下挫，截止收盘 LH2511 合约收 11595 元/吨，跌幅达 5.88%。 驱动分析一：双节期间生猪出栏量加大，供应压力持续释放 前期市场对双节需求有较强预期，散户及二次育肥户持续压栏，至 9 月底，生猪出栏体重已达到 了历史同期最高水平。据涌益咨询监测，截至 9 月 25 日当周，生猪出栏均重 128.55 公斤，较去年同 期增加 2.87 公斤，同比增幅 2.28%。其中，集团出栏均重 123.99 公斤，而散户出栏均重已达到 143.92 公斤，出栏压力较大。双节前部分散户仍有惜售抗价情绪，但双节后随着需求支撑大幅下滑，散户恐 慌性出栏，体重及出栏量双增，供应压力集中释放，现货价格承压。 LH2511行情走势 数据来源：W ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant inflow of 113 million shares into the breeding ETF (159865), indicating strong investor interest in breeding assets [1] - Recent low pork prices are noted as a critical factor, with pork being a core commodity that influences the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by over 20%, emphasizing its importance to the macro economy [1] - A meeting held on September 16, 2025, by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission focused on regulating pig production capacity, mandating leading companies to reduce production by year-end, which signals an accelerated phase of capacity reduction in the pig industry [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the breeding sector is entering a favorable configuration window, making it a potential area for investment [1] - For investors without stock accounts, it recommends the Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF Connect C (012725) as alternative investment options [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for the pig industry continues to strengthen due to dual catalysts from policies and diseases, with a recommendation for long-term positioning despite current price lows [3][5] - The pet food export volume continues to grow year-on-year, indicating a sustained positive trend in the pet food market [4][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is running at a low level, with the national average price at 12.71 yuan/kg as of September 21, 2025, down 0.50 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 5.73 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][13] - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.45 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week and year-on-year [3][13] - The pig industry is expected to see a strong execution of policies aimed at capacity reduction, which will enhance the expectations for substantial capacity reduction [3][13] Weekly Viewpoint - The investment logic for the pig industry is marginally improving, with a recommendation for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][24] - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][25] - The pet food sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][28] Market Performance (September 15-19) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.40 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 2.70% [6][29] - Leading stocks included Shennong Biotechnology (+9.36%), Xuelong Biotechnology (+7.64%), and Tianma Technology (+3.90%) [6][29] Price Tracking (September 15-19) - The average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week [7][37] - The average price of piglets was 22.38 yuan/kg, down 1.57 yuan/kg week-on-week [7][37] - The average price of beef was 65.60 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [44][37] Key News (September 15-19) - Notification regarding the central reserve frozen pork storage auction scheduled for September 23, 2025, with 15,000 tons available for auction [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price is expected to remain stable in the future despite a decline in August due to factors such as heavy weight slaughtering and the spread of African swine fever [3][13] - The average national pig sales price in August 2025 was 13.77 yuan/kg, down 5.35% month-on-month and down 32.35% year-on-year [3][13] - The report highlights that the supply of pigs may gradually tighten in the future due to a decrease in the proportion of large pigs in stock and an increase in the proportion of large pigs being slaughtered [4][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In August 2025, the national pig slaughter volume was 4.3388 million heads, an increase of 4.34% month-on-month and 5.66% year-on-year [3][13] - The report notes that the completion rate of pig slaughtering plans was 100.04% in August, with a planned increase of 3.92% in September compared to actual slaughter in August [3][13] Market Dynamics - The structure of pig slaughtering shows an increase in the proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) being slaughtered, while the proportion of large pigs in stock has decreased [4][17] - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs in August was 36.80 yuan/head, a decrease of 63.80% month-on-month [5][20] Company Performance - A total of 12 listed pig farming companies reported a combined slaughter of 15.116 million heads in August, an increase of 29.79% year-on-year [6][23] - The average sales price of pigs for major listed companies decreased month-on-month, with specific companies reporting the following prices: - Muyuan Foods: 13.51 yuan/kg, down 5.5% - Wens Foodstuffs: 13.90 yuan/kg, down 6.5% - New Hope Liuhe: 13.54 yuan/kg, down 6.9% [7][28]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in national pork reserves and declining pig prices indicate a critical phase for the pork industry, with the pig-to-grain ratio falling below the warning line, prompting government intervention to stabilize prices and encourage quality production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission auctioned 10,000 tons of domestic frozen pork at prices between 19.90 to 20.00 yuan per kilogram, translating to a live pig price of approximately 13.6 to 13.8 yuan per kilogram, marking a temporary bottom for current pork prices [1] - The agricultural sector is actively working to optimize production capacity by eliminating inefficient sows and controlling weights, although the overall impact on capacity reduction remains limited [2][3] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In July, the number of sows eliminated increased by 2.1% month-on-month, while the total breeding sow inventory decreased by 10,000 heads to 40.42 million heads [2] - Major companies are reducing costs and improving efficiency, with leading firms achieving production costs around 12 yuan per kilogram, while others hover around 13 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - As of mid-2025, live pig inventory reached 42.447 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, but prices have dropped to a five-year low of 14,677 yuan per ton due to weak demand and high slaughter losses [5] - The market is expected to face increased supply pressure in the second half of the year, with a predicted rise in commodity pig supply from September to November, limiting significant price fluctuations [5][6] Group 4: Future Considerations - The uncertainty in the market largely hinges on whether producers will continue to follow policy guidance to reduce weights, with average weights for pigs being monitored closely [6] - Short-term price increases may occur due to seasonal factors, but a return to a demand lull post-holidays is anticipated, which could suppress prices [6]

Report Title - 20250829 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Gradual Reduction of Reproductive Sows Benefits Far - Month Contracts, Focus on Peak Season Performance [1] Core View - In the short - term, there is supply pressure, but demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months. The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies. The reference range for the main contract is [13700, 14500] [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - In August, the national average live pig price decreased by 0.44 yuan to 13.82 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan all declined [3][15] - The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.01 yuan to 9.86 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 10.96 yuan to 1627.14 yuan/head. The market for culled sows continued to see a slight increase in volume [3][17] - The average出栏 price of 7kg piglets decreased by 80.47 yuan to 364.29 yuan/head, and the average出栏 price of 15kg piglets decreased by 123.96 yuan to 403.75 yuan/head [3][20] 2. Logic and Outlook - **Logic**: In August, the planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a 5.26% increase. The proportion of large pigs出栏 remained high. From January to July 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, indicating potential growth in出栏 volume in the second half of the year. High supply pressure is expected to continue until May 2026. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising continued to weaken, which is beneficial for the reduction of far - month production capacity. Demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months [4] - **Outlook**: The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies [5] 3. Key Data - **Spot Price**: Various prices such as live pigs, sows, and piglets showed a downward trend in August [3][6] - **Short - term Supply**: The official inventory at the end of the second quarter was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads. The planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased. The average出栏 weight of live pigs increased, while the average weight after slaughter of white - striped pigs decreased. The standard - fat price difference expanded, and the proportion of different weight - range inventories changed [6][23][25] - **Medium - term Supply**: In July, the national piglet survival rate decreased slightly, the number of piglet births increased, and piglet feed sales decreased slightly. The market supply of live pigs is expected to increase in Q4 2025 [6][29] - **Long - term Supply**: In July, the increase in reproductive sows in large - scale breeding enterprises was basically zero, the number of culled reproductive sows increased, and the official number of reproductive sows decreased [6][31] - **Demand**: In August, terminal consumption showed obvious off - season characteristics at first and then recovered. The slaughtering rate, daily slaughter volume, and frozen product storage rate changed slightly, while the fresh - sales rate decreased slightly [6][33] - **Cost**: In August, the corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased. The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising decreased [39][41] - **Profit**: In August, due to increased supply and limited demand recovery, the breeding profit decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit turned negative, and the loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased [43] - **Price Ratio**: In late August, the national average pig - grain price ratio fell below 6:1, entering the third - level warning range. The state plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which is beneficial for short - term market sentiment [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, with a 2.04% month-on-month increase in the feed sales volume of sample enterprises in July, which has been increasing for four consecutive months, and an over 5% month-on-month increase in the slaughter plan of large-scale farms in August. Meanwhile, the demand side is difficult to boost. Although the purchase of 10,000 tons of pork can temporarily stabilize market confidence, the real turning point still awaits the substantial progress of capacity reduction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The feed sales volume of sample enterprises in July increased by 2.04% month-on-month and has been increasing for four consecutive months. The slaughter plan of large-scale farms in August increased by over 5% month-on-month, indicating abundant overall supply [2] - Demand: The demand side is difficult to boost, and the real turning point depends on the substantial progress of capacity reduction [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently facing challenges in supply-side regulation despite policies aimed at reducing production capacity. The effectiveness of existing policies is limited, as indicated by the insufficient reduction in breeding sow numbers, which has not met expectations for significant capacity reduction [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Future swine prices are expected to remain stable, with reduced likelihood of significant fluctuations. The increase in the proportion of "smart capacity" is a key factor in the decline of industry volatility. Even during traditional peak seasons, price increases will be constrained [1][3]. - Investment should focus on leading swine farming companies with stable profitability and strong risk resistance, rather than small-scale operators reliant on price volatility [1][4][5]. - Companies with low-cost advantages, regardless of size, will be more valuable in the current market environment. Value stocks, particularly leading companies, are expected to show stronger investment potential due to enhanced internal and external value attributes [1][6][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - Leading swine companies have shown significant improvements in dividend capacity and balance sheet conditions, which enhance their attractiveness to investors. The increase in dividend ratios and amounts is a notable factor [1][7][8]. - The stability of swine prices has improved, allowing leading companies to be recognized as value stocks, with their disadvantages compared to other sectors, such as coal and banking, diminishing [1][7][8]. - The focus should be on companies with cost advantages and strong value attributes within the swine sector for future investment opportunities [1][9].