生猪周报. 生猪特刊 2025/08/24 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：罗鑫海 Z0021565 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司 ...

再 call 生猪——政策进，价值出 20250821 您如何看待当前生猪政策的效果？ 在当前市场环境下，哪些标的更具投资价值？ 当前生猪政策的效果可以概括为"有一定的效果"，处于中间状态。具体来看， 库存去化方面表现较为理想，体现在体重方面的数据较好，尤其是官方和龙头 企业的数据都显示出积极迹象。然而，以母猪为代表的产能去化效果相对一般， 从 6 月和 7 月的数据来看，母猪数量减少不明显，但整体上遏制了母猪数量的 进一步增长。这表明政策在一定程度上有效，但并未达到大幅度去化的预期。 在当前政策背景下，您对未来生猪价格有何预期？ 我们认为生猪价格将以"稳"字当头。今年以来，我们持续强调这一观点，并 且已经验证了八个月。展望下半年及明年，我们依然维持这一判断。尽管市场 存在波动，但波动率会显著下降。例如，今年春节后市场普遍预期暴跌，但实 际跌幅有限。同样地，在旺季期间可能会出现涨价，但涨幅不会如预期般大。 这种情况主要归因于聪明产能占比提升导致行业波动率下降。因此，即使没有 明显的大幅去化母猪，也不会出现大涨或大跌的情况。 在当前市场环境下，应如何选择投资标的？ 基于我们对生猪价格稳定性的判断，目前不是典型的 ...

生猪市场正面临着一场大变革，或者说这次是要动真格的了。 因为今年官方先后多次对生猪市场提出要求，比如最近一次再次提及到落实大猪企停止扩产能，出栏体重控制在120公斤，并且严格控制二次育肥比例等一 系列要求，这也被看作是生猪市场的"大刀"。 表面看，生猪行情终于在去年扭亏为盈，这是好事，但实际背后隐患不少。 最主要就是生猪产能出现反涨现象，本来产能就大，再反涨，就更加剧了消费的压力。 这两天猪价持续下跌，主要就是各大猪企在响应号召，降重出栏，而这也使市场开始对接下来的猪价抱有疑虑。 不少人认为，缩减产能这并不是一朝一夕的事，接下来各大猪企可能都要持续进行产能的进一步去化，那是不是意味着今年猪价的旺季要泡汤了呢？ 这种忧虑不无道理，因为无论是从供需还是政策端，还是情绪端，几乎都是一边倒。 比如，生猪市场最大的问题就是供应压力太大。 数据显示，今年二季度末，全国生猪存栏42447万头，同比增长达2.2%。 而今年上半年仔猪增量也不少，同比增长超过9%。 这就意味着，下半年生猪出栏也将同步增加。 这还没算大肥的占比，如果再加上肥猪占比提升，那下半年实际流入市场的猪肉将更多。 显然，消费是承接不住的。 别看今年旅游啊， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: Since mid - February 2025, the national live pig market has been in a stalemate between supply and demand, with prices adjusting narrowly within a range. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to high - temperature weather, pork consumption entered a slack season, and pig enterprises faced great pressure, leading to a temporary decline in pig prices. The spot price briefly fell below 14 yuan/kg and then rebounded, indicating strong willingness for second - round fattening at low prices. In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. The piglet supply curve may intensify the expected supply pressure in the far - month. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upside of pig prices will be limited even in the peak season [7]. - **Strategy and Outlook**: There are still profit expectations for the live pig breeding industry in the second half of the year. However, the epidemic prevention pressure in the breeding end will increase in the third and fourth quarters. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly but the overall reduction will be limited. In July, the supply of the live pig market may continue to increase, and the spot price may continue to run weakly within the range. In the long term, prices are expected to improve. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Semi - annual Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Views**: The live pig market is in a supply - demand stalemate, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. The inventory of reproductive sows is increasing, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to intensify. Most enterprises are in a state of small profits or cost - covering [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook**: The profit expectation for the second half of the year exists, but the epidemic prevention pressure increases. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly. The supply in July may increase, and the spot price may run weakly. The futures market depends on market sentiment. The short - term resistance level of the main contract is 14,000, and out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Since mid - February 2025, the live pig market has been in a stalemate, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Futures Spreads**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Standard and Fat Pig Prices**: Recently, the prices of standard and fat pigs have risen simultaneously. The supply of both has decreased, and the demand for second - round fattening has increased, with the price of standard pigs rising more than that of fat pigs, and the spread narrowing [31]. - **Piglet and Binary Sow Prices**: Since mid - May, piglet prices have been falling due to weak commodity pig market, past peak of piglet replenishment, and cautious attitude of retail farmers. In the second half of the year, the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment will weaken, and prices are expected to adjust weakly [35]. - **Culled Sow Prices**: The industry's willingness to actively eliminate production capacity is low. Culled sow prices were driven up by the increase in live pig prices this week and are expected to fluctuate and adjust [38] 3.3 Production Capacity - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. Enterprises' willingness to actively reduce production capacity is weak, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to increase [42]. - **Elimination Volume of Reproductive Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In June, due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the elimination volume may be stable but difficult to decrease [49] 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. In June, due to high - temperature weather and price decline, the inventory is expected to decrease [54]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month. In June, it is expected to increase due to factors such as farmers' willingness to sell [57]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, mainly due to the suspension of piglet replenishment; the inventory of pigs over 140 kg decreased due to farmers' willingness to sell; the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly due to the entry of second - round fattening pigs [60]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased slightly due to farmers' pressure - barring and weight - increasing intentions [63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak. Slaughtering enterprises have a high fresh - sales rate and a low cold - storage rate, indicating cautious attitude towards inventory building. Domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [72]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate decreased due to weak downstream demand. The demand for frozen products is weak, and there is still passive storage of fresh products, leading to a slight increase in the cold - storage rate [75] - **Substitute Prices**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of Live Pig Breeding and Slaughter**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode is 75.35 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 14.24 yuan. The average weekly loss of the mode of purchasing piglets has expanded to 58.39 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 4.97 yuan [88]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.90, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. Next week, it is expected to increase slightly and stabilize [95]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pig farming industry in China is experiencing a significant increase in supply, leading to a decline in pig prices, which have fallen below the breakeven point for many companies [1][3][7]. Supply and Price Dynamics - In May, the total output of listed pig companies increased by 30% year-on-year, resulting in a surplus supply amid weak consumer demand, which caused pig prices to remain low [1][3]. - As of June 17, the national pig price was reported at 14.24 yuan/kg, down 24.13% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month, indicating a continued struggle below the breakeven price of 14 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The increase in supply is attributed to the seasonal decline in pork consumption during the second quarter, compounded by a lack of holiday demand [3][6]. Company Performance - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant sales figures despite the price drop. Muyuan sold 777,000 pigs in May, a 9% increase from the previous year, while Wens sold 315,540 pigs, a 32.64% increase [4][5]. - Smaller companies have also seen rapid growth in output, with companies like Zhengbang Technology and Dongrui achieving year-on-year growth rates of 158% and 122%, respectively [5]. Future Supply Expectations - The stock of breeding sows, which is crucial for future pig supply, stood at 40.38 million heads as of the end of April, with expectations for a reduction of about 1 million heads to alleviate oversupply [2][7]. - Analysts suggest that reducing the breeding sow stock will impact pig supply in the next 10 months, potentially stabilizing prices if demand does not improve [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - Companies are focusing on cost management as a key to profitability in a low-price environment. Muyuan's breeding cost has decreased to approximately 12.2 yuan/kg, allowing for a profit margin of about 3.3 yuan/kg at current sales prices [8]. - Wens also reported a decrease in breeding costs, which is crucial for maintaining profitability amid falling prices [8]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of limited price recovery due to persistent oversupply and weak demand. The focus is shifting towards cost control and operational efficiency as key competitive factors in the industry [7][8].

行业动态跟踪 | 农林牧渔 1 月上市猪企出栏量同环比均下降，出栏均价同比上升环比回落 证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 23 日 生猪行业动态跟踪报告（月度） 我们通过分析 18 家上市猪企的出栏月报，得出以下结论： 上市猪企 25 年 1 月出栏量为 920.02 万头，同比-0.76%，环比-7.89%。头 部企业中，温氏股份/新希望分别出栏 289.97/149.87 万头，同比分别 +9.95%/-13.11%，环比分别-4.64%/-5.83%。25 年 1 月上市猪企出栏量同比、 环比均下滑，其中出栏量环比下滑的原因是今年春节假期提前至 1 月下旬， 造成 1 月生猪行业开工率普遍下降。出栏量同比下滑的原因是新希望、天邦、 华统等公司出栏量同比下滑较大。 上市猪企 25 年 1 月营业收入为 144.30 亿元，同比+23.72%，环比-14.10%。 头部企业中，温氏股份/新希望实现收入 53.49/20.57 亿元，同比分别 +26.07%/-4.72%，环比分别-10.37%/-14.65%。25 年 1 月上市猪企收入同 比大增的原因是出栏价明显高于去年同期，收入环比下降的原因是生猪 ...