内生增长与外延并购双轮驱动

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巴比食品20250925
2025-09-26 02:28
Summary of BaBi Foods Conference Call Company Overview - BaBi Foods relies on a franchise model, with a limited speed of store expansion, adding several hundred new stores each year, surpassing 5,000 stores by the end of last year, but the impact of new stores on overall growth is limited due to the large base [2][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The company adopts a dual strategy of organic growth and external mergers and acquisitions (M&A), acquiring regional small chain baozi shops to expand scale, which is particularly effective in a poor consumer environment where small brands are more willing to be acquired [2][6] - From 2022 to 2024, BaBi's same-store performance is expected to decline annually, but improvements are anticipated starting in the second half of 2024, with Q1 2025 narrowing to single digits and achieving low single-digit growth in Q2, driven by category resilience, reduced competition, and store adjustments [2][10] - Store adjustments, including layout changes, increasing SKUs, and extending operating hours, have improved the performance of over 200 adjusted stores, with a median same-store sales increase reaching double digits [12] - Future same-store growth expectations are mixed; if the consumer environment stabilizes and store adjustments continue, sales may improve; however, if the environment worsens, high expectations for 2026 should be avoided, leading to a cautiously optimistic overall outlook [2][15] Additional Important Content - The franchise model relies on franchisees with some experience in Chinese pastry, often operating stores as couples or families, which slows down the opening of new stores as each new store requires recruiting a new franchisee [4] - The company has significant potential in the group meal business, currently accounting for about 20% of total business, with expectations to maintain a 50-50 split with store operations in the long term, especially in the East China region where it leads the market [16] - BaBi's acquisition strategy has accelerated, with notable acquisitions in 2022 and 2024, indicating a strong push for external growth despite slower organic growth [7][9] - The company’s short-term outlook is positive due to accelerated acquisitions and a favorable competitive landscape, with expectations for same-store sales to perform well in the coming quarters [17] - Long-term, BaBi Foods is viewed as a stable growth company with significant potential to increase market share through continued expansion, given that it currently operates only a fraction of the total baozi shops in the industry [18]