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兴通股份(603209):业绩短期承压,静待运力投产与需求回暖
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-26 04:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, awaiting the launch of new capacity and a recovery in demand [6] - The company is a leader in domestic chemical shipping, with a clear business model, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in performance from 2025 to 2027 due to continuous investment in foreign trade capacity [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 25, 2025, the closing price is 15.42 CNY, with a total market value of 5,011.50 million CNY and a circulating market value of 4,317.60 million CNY [4] Financial Data - The company reported a revenue of 787 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 136 million CNY, a decrease of 24.80% year-on-year [8] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 405 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 62 million CNY, down 39.90% year-on-year [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1,548 million CNY, 1,979 million CNY, and 2,339 million CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 2.22%, 27.78%, and 18.21% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 294 million CNY, 374 million CNY, and 448 million CNY, with growth rates of -16.17%, 27.33%, and 19.68% [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025-2027 is projected to be 17.06, 13.40, and 11.19, indicating a favorable valuation [7] Operational Insights - The company is accelerating its capacity construction, with 12 chemical tankers under construction, expected to contribute to incremental revenue from 2025 to 2027 [8] - The gross margin in Q2 2025 was approximately 26.82%, a decrease of 14.11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak domestic demand and falling freight rates [8]