浅析美以联手空袭伊朗对原油海运行业影响 航运港口 证券研究报告 行业专题报告 / 2026.03.02 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -8% 0% 8% 17% 25% 33% 航运港口 沪深300 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com 联系人 李翔宇 lixy05@ctsec.com ❖ 事件：①伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击中身亡，其高 级助手，包括伊朗国防委员会秘书阿里·沙姆哈尼和伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总 司令穆罕默德·帕克普尔，均在空袭中丧生；②伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队 28 日晚 宣布，禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡；③伊朗方面 3 月 1 日称，在伊朗最 高领袖哈梅内伊殉职后，将由伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬、司法部长和宪法监护委 员会一名法学家领导国家。 ❖ 伊朗国内发生重大变化，需求合规转化预期增强：2025 年全球日均原油 海运出口量约 3930 万桶/天，其中伊朗日均原油海运出口量约 160 万桶/天， 约占全球日均原油海运出口量的 4.1%。自 2026 年 2 月 28 日美以联手空袭 伊朗以来，已导致伊朗国内政 ...

Group 1: Weichuang Electric / Automation Equipment - The company is strengthening collaborations to promote technological innovation and market expansion in the robot-driven component business [4] - Plans to establish a joint venture in Thailand with Zhejiang Rongtai to expand the smart robot electromechanical integration market, with both parties holding 50% shares [4] - The company aims to deepen industry demand and continue global expansion, focusing on regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America while enhancing product offerings [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.977 billion, 2.444 billion, and 3.108 billion yuan, with net profits of 288 million, 346 million, and 419 million yuan respectively [6] Group 2: Lenovo Group / Computer Equipment - Lenovo reported FY2026Q3 revenue of approximately 22.204 billion USD, an 18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 546 million USD, down 21% year-on-year [7][8] - The adjusted net profit increased by 36% year-on-year, driven by efficiency optimization and a high-end product mix [8] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) is undergoing strategic restructuring, expected to accelerate the return to profitability in FY2027 [9] Group 3: Shipping and Ports Industry - National import and export total reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, with a 3.8% year-on-year growth [13] - Container throughput at major coastal ports reached 31.198 million TEUs, a 7% year-on-year increase [15] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 135.95% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in dry bulk shipping rates [19] Group 4: Google-A / Overseas - Google reported Q4 2025 revenue of 113.828 billion USD, an 18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 33.455 billion USD, up 30% year-on-year [25] - Search advertising revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, driven by AI innovations enhancing user experience and monetization efficiency [26] - Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% year-on-year, reaching 17.7 billion USD, with a significant increase in annual recurring revenue [27] Group 5: Yutong Technology / Packaging Printing - The company plans to acquire 51% of Huayan Technology for 449 million yuan, aiming to enhance its capabilities in precision manufacturing [32][34] - The acquisition is expected to leverage industry synergies and empower the second growth curve, focusing on high-profile clients like Google and Samsung [34] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 19.069 billion, 21.001 billion, and 23.077 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.608 billion, 1.798 billion, and 1.980 billion yuan respectively [34] Group 6: NetEase-S / Gaming - NetEase reported Q4 2025 revenue of 27.5 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 6.2 billion yuan, down 28.8% year-on-year [36][37] - The gaming segment showed resilience with a revenue of 22 billion yuan, driven by strong performance from popular IPs and new game launches [38] - The company is focusing on AI-driven strategies to enhance operational efficiency and optimize its business structure [39] Group 7: Aidi Pharmaceutical / Biopharmaceuticals - The company is advancing its international product launch and received GMP certification from Tanzania, facilitating entry into the African market [43] - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 721 million yuan, a 72.57% year-on-year increase, with a focus on HIV innovative drug sales [43] - Multiple new drug pipelines are actively progressing, with significant clinical trial approvals received [44] Group 8: Meituan-W / Local Life Services - Meituan is projected to achieve total revenue of 916 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a core local business revenue of 648 billion yuan, reflecting a competitive landscape [45][46] - The company is strategically increasing investments in marketing and rider incentives to enhance operational efficiency amid fierce competition [46] - Long-term growth potential is anticipated through refined operations in instant delivery and overseas expansion [49] Group 9: Huahong Semiconductor / Semiconductors - Huahong Semiconductor reported Q4 2025 revenue of 660 million USD, a 22.4% year-on-year increase, with a wafer shipment of 1.45 million pieces [50]

Industry Overview - The shipping and port sector experienced an overall decline of 3.44% on February 13, with the transportation sector down by 1.74%. The drop was influenced by a significant decline in logistics stocks in the US and Europe due to AI technology impacts, notably Robinson Global Logistics falling over 14%, which affected the sentiment in the A-share shipping sector [1] - Despite a tight supply-demand situation in the oil transportation industry, with VLCC freight rates maintaining a high of $120,000 per day, the company's net profit for Q1 2025 fell by 43.31% year-on-year. Bank of America has downgraded its earnings forecast for 2026-2027 by approximately 20%, indicating a divergence in market expectations regarding performance [3] Stock Performance - On February 12, the stock hit a limit up, reaching a new high of 18.73 yuan, but experienced a significant drop of 9.50% to close at 16.95 yuan the following day. The stock had a cumulative increase of 23.73% over a short period, indicating a technical correction after being overbought [2][4] - The stock saw a net outflow of 75.91 million yuan on February 13, following a net inflow of 155 million yuan the previous trading day, suggesting an increased willingness among investors to take profits [2] - The trading volume ratio reached 1.90 on February 13, with a transaction amount of 1.802 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.00%, all exceeding recent averages, indicating intense trading activity and a potential cautious sentiment among investors regarding the company's long-term investments in LNG vessels [4] Company Developments - The company is actively optimizing its fleet structure, including an investment of 720 million yuan to build two MR oil tankers. The supply-side constraints in the oil transportation industry, with new VLCC orders accounting for only 10.6% of capacity, continue to support the long-term positive outlook for the sector [4]

截至2026年2月13日收盘，中远海发（601866）报收于2.61元，较上周的2.64元下跌1.14%。本周，中远 海发2月12日盘中最高价报2.74元。2月13日盘中最低价报2.61元。中远海发当前最新总市值344.46亿 元，在航运港口板块市值排名9/34，在两市A股市值排名604/5189。 本周关注点 会议同意郑晓哲董事担任董事会投资战略委员会委员，批准《2026年度重大经营风险预测评估报告》， 修订公司《对外捐赠管理办法》，并批准2025年度工资总额额度。各相关专门委员会已会前审议通过有 关议案并提交董事会。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 公司公告汇总：子公司2026年度货币类金融衍生业务额度为23亿美元、18亿元人民币 公司公告汇总：董事会批准郑晓哲董事担任投资战略委员会委员 公司公告汇总：审议通过《2026年度重大经营风险预测评估报告》 公司公告汇总 中远海发第七届董事会第三十四次会议于2026年2月13日以书面通讯方式召开，应出席董事8名，实际出 席8名。会议审议通过多项议案，包括公司2026年投 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Port Group has received policy support in the field of green fuel bunkering and has completed the issuance of medium-term notes [1][2] Recent Events - On February 10, 2026, the Ministry of Transport and nine other departments jointly issued a plan to support the construction of the Shanghai International Shipping Green Fuel Bunkering Center and Trading Center, aiming to establish an international green fuel bunkering center in Shanghai by 2030 [2] - The energy company of Shanghai Port Group plans to invest in two additional LNG bunkering vessels over the next two years, with the LNG bunkering volume at Shanghai Port expected to reach 712,000 cubic meters by the end of 2025 [2] - On February 12, 2026, the company completed the issuance of its third medium-term note for 2026, with a scale of 2 billion yuan, a term of 5 years, and an issuance interest rate of 1.81% [2] Stock Performance - Over the past 7 days (as of February 13, 2026), Shanghai Port Group's stock price has shown a fluctuating trend, closing at 5.01 yuan on February 13, down 0.79% from the closing price of 5.05 yuan on February 9, with a price range fluctuation of 2.18% [3] - The stock price has been fluctuating near the 20-day Bollinger Band middle track (5.055 yuan), and the MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating potential short-term technical recovery demand [3] - During the same period, the shipping and port sector declined by 3.44%, with the company performing slightly better than the industry [3] Institutional Viewpoints - According to a report from Guohai Securities on February 13, 2026, the dry bulk throughput in the shipping and port sector remains stable, with iron ore inventory increasing by 14.63% year-on-year and iron ore throughput reaching 1.399 billion tons for the entire year of 2025, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the sector [4]

Group 1: Overview of Import and Export - The total import and export volume in China for 2025 is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, with imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (0.5% growth) and exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (6.1% growth) [1][2] - The growth rates for imports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 5.7%, 9.9%, and -3% respectively, with their respective shares being 40.08%, 31.84%, and 8.03% [2] - The growth rates for exports of electromechanical products, high-tech products, and agricultural products are 9%, 8%, and 1.7% respectively, with their respective shares being 61.02%, 25.12%, and 2.76% [2] Group 2: Cargo Throughput - The total cargo throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is expected to reach 11.634 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and foreign trade cargo throughput at 5.066 billion tons, growing by 4.7% [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for cargo throughput in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are 3.1%, 5.7%, 7.8%, 2.8%, 4.9%, and 2.2% respectively, with their respective shares being 12.45%, 18.84%, 5.22%, 6.98%, 15.27%, and 17.08% [2] Group 3: Container Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1122.15 points, down 20.7% year-on-year and 4.55% month-on-month, with specific routes like the East and West US and Europe showing declines of -26.71%, -29.74%, and -20.63% respectively [4] - The container throughput at major coastal ports in China for 2025 is projected to be 31.198 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, and specific ports like Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen showing growth rates of 6.5%, 6.9%, 11.6%, and 6% respectively [4] Group 4: Liquid Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1691 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 87.26% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [5] - The crude oil import volume for 2025 is expected to reach 578 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, while the throughput at major crude oil receiving ports is projected to be 389 million tons, showing a decline of 3.4% [5][6] Group 5: Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on February 6, 2026, is reported at 1923 points, indicating a year-on-year increase of 135.95% and a month-on-month increase of 9.14% [7] - The iron ore throughput for 2025 is projected to be 1.399 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.39%, while coal throughput is expected to be 688 million tons, reflecting a decline of 1.07% [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bohai Ferry (603167) has gained market attention due to its defense concept and high dividend discussions, particularly following the event of its vessel "Bohai Mingzhu" crossing the Taiwan Strait, which has sparked discussions about its role in national maritime strategic deployment, although it clarified that it does not involve maritime rocket launch operations [1] Stock Performance - Over the past week, Bohai Ferry's stock price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a range change of 0.63%, currently priced at 9.58 yuan. Capital flow indicates a net inflow of 3.1976 million yuan on February 11 and a net inflow of 4.3 million yuan on February 13, with a turnover rate of 0.91%. The stock price volatility is driven by defense concepts and dividend expectations, but market sentiment changes should be noted [2] Financial Report Analysis - The company's Q3 2025 report shows a revenue of 1.428 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 1.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 272 million yuan, up 5.68% year-on-year, with a significant increase of 11.61% in net profit for the single third quarter at 170 million yuan. The net cash flow from operating activities is 328 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.7%, indicating high profit quality. These financial figures have been frequently cited to support the high dividend logic [3] Institutional Perspectives - In the industry context, Guohai Securities' report on February 13 maintains a "recommended" rating for the shipping and port sector, noting a year-on-year increase of 135.95% in the Baltic Dry Index and a rebound in iron ore throughput, although the direct impact on individual stocks is limited. CITIC Securities' report on February 8 analyzes supply-side changes in the oil industry, primarily concerning VLCC capacity, without specifically targeting Bohai Ferry [4]

Market Performance - On the last trading day before the holiday, all three major A-share indices fell collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.26% to 4082 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.57% [1] - The total market turnover approached 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 161.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3800 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept saw a significant decline, with Changxin Bochuang dropping over 11% [1] - The photovoltaic equipment sector weakened, with Shuangliang Energy hitting the daily limit down [1] - The small metals sector experienced widespread declines, with Yunlu Co. and Longci Technology both falling over 5% [1] - The glass and fiberglass sector also weakened, led by Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass [1] - The shipping and port, F5G concept, titanium dioxide, and Kimi concept sectors had notable declines [1] - Conversely, the shipbuilding sector rose, with Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting the daily limit up [1] - The commercial aerospace sector surged following the successful completion of China's first rocket first-stage body sea recovery mission, with Hangfa Power hitting the daily limit up [1] - The robotics sector was active, led by Wuzhou New Spring [1] - The aquaculture, motor, and reducer sectors showed notable gains [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4082.07, down 51.95 points (-1.26%) [1] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14100.19, down 182.81 points (-1.28%) [1] - ChiNext Index: 3275.96, down 52.10 points (-1.57%) [1] - Other indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and others also reported declines [1]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.96% [1] - Shipbuilding, aerospace, and semiconductors showed the highest gains, while small metals, photovoltaic equipment, and shipping ports collectively retreated [1] ETF Performance - The top five ETFs by increase were: - France CAC40 ETF (513080) up 3.11% - China-Korea Semiconductor ETF (513310) up 2.35% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (589020) up 2.32% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) up 2.21% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) up 2.14% [1] - The top five ETFs by decrease were: - Oil and Gas ETF (561760) down 3.63% - Oil ETF (561360) down 3.60% - Oil and Gas ETF (159309) down 3.58% - Oil and Gas ETF (561570) down 3.50% - Oil ETF (159697) down 3.30% [1] ETF Trading Volume - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included: - A500 ETF Fund (512050) with a volume of 9.776 billion - A500 ETF Huatai-PB (563360) with 7.270 billion - CSI A500 ETF (159338) with 5.846 billion - A500 ETF Southern (159352) with 5.665 billion - Gold ETF (518880) with 4.225 billion - A500 ETF E Fund (159361) with 3.106 billion - Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) with 3.105 billion - Hong Kong Securities ETF E Fund (513090) with 2.785 billion - CSI 500 ETF (510500) with 2.601 billion - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with 2.303 billion [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the shipping and port sector [1][12] Core Insights - The report addresses key issues by tracking core high-frequency data in the shipping and port sector [5][18] - The overall performance of cargo throughput remains stable, with a notable recovery in iron ore throughput and steady growth in container throughput [12] Summary by Sections 1. Overview: National Import and Export Total and Cargo Throughput - In 2025, the national import and export total reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The import total was 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%, while the export total was 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1% [6][19] - Coastal major ports achieved a cargo throughput of 116.34 billion tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with foreign trade cargo throughput reaching 50.66 billion tons, up 4.7% [7][32] 2. Container: Shipping Rates and Container Throughput - As of February 6, 2026, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1122.15 points, down 20.7% year-on-year and 4.55% month-on-month. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) was at 1266.56 points, down 33.22% year-on-year and 3.81% month-on-month [9][36] - In 2025, the container throughput at coastal major ports reached 31.198 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 7% [9][41] 3. Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Rates and Crude Oil Throughput - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 1691 points on February 6, 2026, up 87.26% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 917 points, up 29.89% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month [10][42] - In 2025, crude oil imports totaled 578 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while the throughput at major crude oil receiving ports was 389 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year [10][47] 4. Dry Bulk: Shipping Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was at 1923 points on February 6, 2026, up 135.95% year-on-year and 9.14% month-on-month [11][51] - In 2025, iron ore throughput at major receiving ports reached 1.399 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, while coal throughput was 688 million tons, down 1.07% year-on-year [11][64]