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中谷物流(603565):Q3扣非净利润同比+65%,符合预期
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-10-31 12:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company's Q3 non-net profit increased by 65% year-on-year, meeting expectations, with a total revenue of 25.61 billion yuan in Q3, down 5.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.39 billion yuan, down 3.71% year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in non-net profit by 85.51% year-on-year is attributed to the synergy strategy of "improving domestic trade and increasing foreign trade," with foreign trade leasing becoming a core growth driver [2] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio of 84%, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3] - The outlook for Q4 is positive, with expectations of continued strong performance in both domestic and foreign trade due to seasonal demand and stable pricing [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 78.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.10 billion yuan, an increase of 27.21% year-on-year [1] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to reach 20.1 billion, 21.0 billion, and 22.2 billion yuan respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [4] - The company maintains a strong cash reserve of approximately 12 billion yuan, supporting its high dividend policy [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has effectively optimized its domestic trade capacity, alleviating supply pressure in the domestic market, which has led to improved profitability despite a decline in volume [2] - The foreign trade leasing business has capitalized on high market demand, with foreign revenue reaching 1.41 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 146% [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for small vessels, enhancing its leasing opportunities [3]