Group 1: Exchange Rate Outlook - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain above 7.0 in the second half of 2025, unless there is a significant improvement in US-China relations or a notable increase in domestic economic recovery slope[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has shown a downward trend, fluctuating between 7.1 and 7.5 since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and trade relations[7] - A technical breach of 7.0 in the spot exchange rate may occur but is likely to be temporary, reflecting market microstructure adjustments rather than a fundamental policy shift[25] Group 2: Policy Anchors - The central bank's policy focus is on enhancing exchange rate flexibility while preventing excessive fluctuations, maintaining a balance between market forces and macroeconomic stability[17] - The central bank's management framework emphasizes a "managed floating exchange rate system," aiming to stabilize the RMB against a basket of currencies rather than solely against the USD[12] - The probability of the USD/CNY exchange rate falling below 7.0 is low due to structural constraints in domestic economic recovery and external geopolitical risks[25] Group 3: External Economic Environment - The IMF forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating a synchronized slowdown among major economies[29] - China's economic growth forecast has been revised down from 4.5% to 4.0%, reflecting a significant adjustment of 11.1% due to slower domestic demand recovery[29] - The weakening of global growth dynamics is expected to exert additional pressure on the RMB, limiting its ability to strengthen independently[34]