徐闻宇 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 期货研究报告 | FICC 组 外汇半年报 展望 2025 年下半年，预计美元兑人民币将在 6.8–7.3 区间内维持双向窄幅波动。市场普遍认为人民币不存在大幅单边贬值或升值的基 础：美元指数可能继续偏弱但其下行速度放缓，人民币汇率升破 6.8 的可能性较低，而即使遭遇外部冲击也有望守住 7.3 左右的政策底 线。整体趋势上，人民币对美元将保持温和偏升的态势：在弱势美元环境下延续小幅升值，但幅度有限，年底前汇率中枢或稳步略有下 移。 外汇：美元难以转向 FICC 组研究报告 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 z 蔡劭立 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 汪雅航 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 朱思谋 从业资格号：F03142856 FICC 组 | 外汇半年报 2025-07-06 美元难以转向 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 徐闻宇 邮箱： xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The overall view is that the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate weakly. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation difference, a neutral Sino-US interest rate difference, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. The outlook suggests that the US dollar index is facing dual impacts of repeated inflation data and policy uncertainty, with a short-term weak trend. The RMB is supported by export resilience and flexible policy adjustments, and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15–7.20. It is recommended to maintain a neutral and flexible allocation [30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with significantly higher volatility on the Put side than on the Call side. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY [4]. - The term structure data shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the Sino-US interest rate difference in different periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter-cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has narrowed [10]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - The Fed has priced in a 65bp interest rate cut by 2025, and the pricing of US interest rate cuts has rebounded. The TGA account had a balance of $334.5 billion on June 25 (previous value of $383.8 billion, $120.7 billion/month), and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $210.8 billion. On June 24, Powell stated that there are multiple possibilities for the future monetary policy path [17]. - The US economic situation shows mixed employment, stable inflation below expectations, and marginal economic decline. Fiscal spending has declined, the economic sentiment in June has been differentiated, and retail sales in May have been under pressure [19]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations between the US and 15 key countries and regions, there is a differentiated pattern. As the deadline for Trump's "reciprocal tariff" 90-day suspension period (July 9) approaches, most negotiations have not made breakthroughs. The US government's attitude towards extension is inconsistent, and the subsequent progress needs continuous attention [20]. Event: The "Big and Beautiful" Bill - The bill consists of six parts and is expected to increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 - 2034. Trump requires the bill to be passed before Independence Day. The US Senate passed the bill on July 1, and it has been submitted to the House of Representatives [24]. Macro: Chinese Economy - The economic structure in China showed increased pressure in May. The June national PMI was 49.7, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 and a year-on-year increase of 0. The production volume increased by 0.3 to 51, and new orders increased by 0.4 to 49.5. Different industries showed different trends [25][27].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Last week, the overall liquidity was balanced, with an upward trend in capital interest rates, a downward trend in certificate of deposit (CD) rates, an upward trend in IRS yields, a downward trend in repurchase trading volume, an upward trend in bill rates, and a downward trend in the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Capital Supply and Demand - Last week, the open - market had 960.3 billion yuan in maturities (all reverse repurchase), and 2327.5 billion yuan in investments (2027.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in MLF), with a net investment of 1367.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding reverse repurchases increased compared to the previous week [1] - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase. After the end of the quarter, it is expected that the liquidity will ease and the capital interest rates will decline [5] Interest Rates - Affected by the end - of - quarter factor, the average DR007 was 1.65%, up 13BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.82%, up 24BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.44% respectively. The average GC007 was 1.92%, up 31BP from the previous week [1] - Last week, the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap average was 1.54%, up from the previous week. The market's expectation for the liquidity is stable [2] - As of the last trading day of last week, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA CDs was 1.64%, down from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity of CDs is about 245.79 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [2] - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 1.15%, up from the previous week's last trading day [4] Repurchase Market - Last week, the volume of pledged repurchase trading was between 6.6 and 8.5 trillion yuan, and the average volume of R001 repurchase trading was 6.5011 trillion yuan, down 961.1 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the balance of outstanding repurchases was 12.7 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [3] - In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and wealth management increased, while that of funds decreased [3] Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.17, slightly down from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed [4] This Week's Key Points of Attention - This week, the open - market has 2027.5 billion yuan in capital maturities, all reverse repurchase [5] - On Monday and Tuesday, China's official and Caixin PMI for June will be announced respectively, and on Tuesday, the US ISM manufacturing index for June will be announced. On Thursday, the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change for June will be announced, and the minutes of the Eurozone's monetary policy meeting for June will also be announced [5] - This week, the net maturity of interest - bearing bonds is 6.34 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in the USD to CNY exchange rate significantly impact various sectors, including cross-border e-commerce, study abroad families, and purchasing decisions for consumers [1][2][9]. Group 1: Impact on Different Sectors - For purchasing agents, every exchange rate fluctuation directly affects their profit margins, prompting them to monitor rates closely to capitalize on favorable conditions [2]. - Study abroad families are particularly concerned with long-term exchange rate impacts, as annual fluctuations can affect their overall budget for expenses like dining [2][6]. - Cross-border e-commerce businesses view exchange rate changes as opportunities for profit, leveraging small differences in rates to enhance their margins [2][9]. Group 2: Daily Life Implications - The current exchange rate allows for specific purchases, such as 3 USD equating to 21.5178 CNY, which can buy a coffee or a public transport ticket in China, highlighting the value differences across countries [3][6]. - An increase in the exchange rate means travelers need to spend more CNY to obtain the same amount of USD, while a decrease can lead to savings [6][9]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Monitoring - Individuals can easily check the latest exchange rates through mobile banking apps or platforms like Alipay and WeChat, as rates fluctuate frequently [7][10]. - Ignoring exchange rate changes can lead to financial losses, as even small differences can accumulate significantly over time, affecting larger transactions [9]. Group 4: Exchange Strategies - Ordinary citizens should assess their actual need for foreign currency before exchanging, as minor fluctuations may not warrant concern [12]. - For those planning to invest in foreign funds, a strategy of gradual purchases based on market trends is advisable [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the liquidity situation from June 16 - 20, 2025, indicating that the overall capital market shows a state of balanced and slightly loose funds, with some indicators showing upward or downward trends, and the market's expectation of the capital situation is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as the end - of - quarter credit impulse and government bond supply on the capital market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rates - Last week, the open - market maturity was 1040.2 billion yuan, including 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The open - market investment was 960.3 billion yuan, all in reverse repurchase, with a net withdrawal of 7.99 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was balanced and slightly loose, with the average DR007 at 1.52%, up 0.5BP from the previous week, and the average R007 at 1.58%, up 1BP from the previous week. The average DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.44% respectively. The exchange repurchase rate increased, with the average GC007 at 1.61%, up 4BP from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of reverse repurchase was 960.3 billion yuan, up from the previous week [1]. 3.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) and IRS Yields - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 1021.64 billion yuan, the issuance was 1102.32 billion yuan, and the net financing scale was 80.68 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA CDs was 1.64%, down from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 1137.81 billion yuan, with a greater maturity pressure than the previous week. In terms of interest rate swaps, the average of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.53%, up from the previous week. The market's expectation of the capital situation is stable, and CDs are more affected by seasonal supply - demand pressure [2]. 3.3 Repurchase Volume and Institutional Behavior - Last week, the volume of pledged repurchase was between 7.7 - 8.8 trillion yuan, with the average R001 repurchase volume at 7462.2 billion yuan, up 361.4 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of repurchase was 12.7 trillion yuan, up from the previous week. The repurchase leverage has returned to the high point of December last year. By institution, the lending scale of large banks increased, while that of money market funds decreased. The borrowing scales of securities firms, funds, and wealth management increased. As of Friday, the repurchase balances of large banks and money market funds were 5.30 trillion yuan and 1.94 trillion yuan, up 358.3 billion yuan and down 9.4 billion yuan respectively from the previous week. The positive repurchase balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management were 1.86 trillion yuan, 2.47 trillion yuan, and 777.6 billion yuan respectively, up 21.7 billion yuan, 83.5 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan respectively from the previous week [3]. 3.4 Bill Rates and Exchange Rates - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 1.05%, up from the last trading day of the previous week. Near the end of the quarter, attention should be paid to the situation of credit impulse. Last Friday, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.18, up slightly from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed. Last week, the Fed held its June FOMC meeting, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25 - 4.5%, maintaining the interest rate unchanged for four consecutive times, while raising the inflation forecast and lowering the economic growth forecast, suggesting an increase in stagflation risk. Due to the Fed's caution, the approaching inflation pulse, and the Treasury's supply pressure, short - term US bond yields may remain high [4]. 3.5 This Week's Key Concerns - This week, the open - market capital maturity is 1060.3 billion yuan, including 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 100 billion yuan of treasury deposit maturity. On Friday, China's industrial enterprise profits for May will be announced, and attention should be paid to the enterprise profit repair situation. The eurozone's economic sentiment index for June will also be announced on Friday, and attention should be paid to the eurozone's economic trend. In addition, the US PCE for May will be announced on Friday, and attention should be paid to the inflation trend. This week, the 7 - day repurchase starts to cross the quarter, and the government bond supply scale is large. Attention should be paid to the impact on the capital situation [5].

Group 1: Exchange Rate Outlook - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain above 7.0 in the second half of 2025, unless there is a significant improvement in US-China relations or a notable increase in domestic economic recovery slope[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has shown a downward trend, fluctuating between 7.1 and 7.5 since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and trade relations[7] - A technical breach of 7.0 in the spot exchange rate may occur but is likely to be temporary, reflecting market microstructure adjustments rather than a fundamental policy shift[25] Group 2: Policy Anchors - The central bank's policy focus is on enhancing exchange rate flexibility while preventing excessive fluctuations, maintaining a balance between market forces and macroeconomic stability[17] - The central bank's management framework emphasizes a "managed floating exchange rate system," aiming to stabilize the RMB against a basket of currencies rather than solely against the USD[12] - The probability of the USD/CNY exchange rate falling below 7.0 is low due to structural constraints in domestic economic recovery and external geopolitical risks[25] Group 3: External Economic Environment - The IMF forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating a synchronized slowdown among major economies[29] - China's economic growth forecast has been revised down from 4.5% to 4.0%, reflecting a significant adjustment of 11.1% due to slower domestic demand recovery[29] - The weakening of global growth dynamics is expected to exert additional pressure on the RMB, limiting its ability to strengthen independently[34]

5月13日消息，美元兑离岸人民币刚刚突破7.1800元关口，最新报7.1799元，日内跌0.26%；美元兑在岸 人民币最新报7.1904元，日内跌0.24%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that the US-China trade negotiations have significantly exceeded market expectations, which may lead to a slight weakening of the USD against the RMB [1] Group 1 - The trade talks between the US and China have shown more positive outcomes than anticipated by the market [1] - The potential impact of these negotiations could result in a minor depreciation of the US dollar relative to the Chinese yuan [1]

期货研究报告|外汇月报 2025-05-06 预期扰动增强，美元短暂偏弱 研究院 研究员 蔡劭立 FICC 组 投资咨询号：Z0014617 联系人 朱思谋 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 美元短期偏弱，建议维持区间震荡思路，关注政策扰动与外部经济预期变化。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 美元兑人民币汇率在 4 月下旬至 5 月初整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，阶段高点出现在 7.35 附近，随后回落至 7.27 一线。离岸人民币在五一假期期间短线快速升值，受中美贸易预 期改善、美元指数回调以及市场风险偏好回暖等多因素影响。美元指数 4 月累计下跌约 4.5%，为近年来较大单月跌幅。期权隐含波动率先升后降，看涨期权隐波回落，人民币 汇率走势更趋双向波动。 4 月中国宏观数据环比走弱但整体好于预期，美国增长数据不及预期。中国制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0，显示制造业短期承压，但高技术制造业 PMI 维持在 51.5 的扩张区间，非 制造业商务活动指数为 50.4，服务业恢复动能延续。美国方面，4 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 下 滑至 48.7，一季度 GDP 录得-0.3%，带动花旗经济意外指 ...