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白酒需求景气度处历史底部,向下风险或有限
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-06 01:08
Group 1 - The current demand for liquor is at a historical low, with limited downside risks, supported by a relatively loose policy environment that lays the foundation for consumption recovery [1] - More supportive policies are expected to be introduced, aiding in the gradual stabilization and recovery of liquor demand, which may see a slow upward trend in the future [1] - Short-term demand is expected to be rigid, particularly in banquet scenarios, due to a low base in the same period, while mid-term policy stimuli may stabilize high-end liquor demand [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry's performance is anticipated to show a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery in the second and third quarters, supported by a low base [1] - In the current industry cycle bottom, smaller enterprises are accelerating their exit, while leading companies are expected to enhance their market share due to superior organizational management and strong risk resistance capabilities [1] - The industry currently exhibits significant valuation advantages, with leading liquor companies possessing medium to long-term investment value [1] Group 3 - The policy framework is increasingly focused on reinforcing the "domestic circulation" strategy, utilizing targeted measures such as consumption subsidies and tax incentives to promote domestic demand structure upgrades [1] - Current policies emphasize the connection between the "external demand easing period" and the "internal demand cultivation period," allowing for rapid policy activation to counter external impacts if U.S. tariff policies fluctuate [1] - This combination of "short-term relief and mid-term transformation" policies signifies that the country is accelerating the construction of a more resilient economic development system [1]