军工行业估值体系重塑
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昨日“吸金”超1400万元,高端装备ETF(159638)盘中溢价,中复神鹰逆市涨超4%
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-15 02:26
Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on May 15, with major technology sectors undergoing a pullback. The high-end equipment ETF (159638) fell by 1.1% but still saw a net inflow of over 14 million yuan despite the drop [1] - The high-end equipment ETF closely tracks the CSI High-end Equipment Sub-index, which includes leading military companies such as AVIC Optoelectronics and AVIC Shenfei. The ETF also offers off-market connection funds [1] - Notably, among the ETF's constituent stocks, Zhongfu Shenying rose over 4%, while Hangjin Technology and Guangwei Composites increased by over 2% [1] Group 2 - According to Zhonghang Securities, the military industry is expected to benefit from improved asset quality, new growth trajectories, larger business scales, and higher market ceilings, leading to a revaluation of the industry [2] - The military sector is anticipated to see a recovery in fundamentals and sentiment as annual and quarterly reports are disclosed, with a better performance expected in the second half of the year compared to the first half [2] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are likely to increase attention on China's military trade, with the industry poised for rapid growth, particularly benefiting companies related to consumable weapons [2]
军工板块“空中加油”,资金持续博弈基本面与景气度拐点
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 00:35
Group 1 - The military industry is currently in a short-term performance bottoming phase, with leading companies, especially main engine manufacturers, showing a significant recovery in revenue year-on-year in Q1, although net profits remain under pressure [1][2] - The capital market's interest in the military industry has increased significantly, with military ETFs showing a cumulative increase of 4.91% last week, driven by heightened market sentiment due to geopolitical tensions [1][3] - In Q1, the military sector's total revenue was 1,067.53 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.15%, while net profit was 56.14 billion, down 4.40% [3][4] Group 2 - Among 40 leading companies in the military sector, all achieved positive revenue growth in Q1, with 14 companies experiencing double-digit growth, contrasting with 22 companies that saw revenue declines in the same period last year [4][5] - The average net profit growth rate for these 40 companies was -35.57%, indicating a significant decline in profitability compared to the previous year [4][5] - Some companies, such as Aviation Power and Aerospace Rainbow, reported net profit declines exceeding 70%, highlighting the challenges faced by the industry [5][6] Group 3 - Long-term profitability in the military sector is currently below the previous cycle's starting point in 2019, and the potential for a performance turnaround is crucial for further valuation increases [6][8] - Several companies have disclosed ambitious revenue targets for 2025, indicating positive growth expectations within the aerospace and shipbuilding sectors [6][8] - Public funds have been reducing their allocation to the military sector for ten consecutive quarters, with military-themed fund sizes decreasing significantly since their peak in Q1 2021 [7][8] Group 4 - The military industry is expected to undergo a valuation restructuring, benefiting from improved asset quality and market conditions, with a more favorable outlook for the second half of the year compared to the first half [8]