军工行业 2025 年一季度公募基金持仓分析 1Q25 机构低配军工；持仓"底部特征"明确 2025 年 05 月 08 日 ➢ 投资建议 近期，公募基金 2025 年一季报披露完毕。1Q25，主动型基金超配/低配军 工幅度环比减少 0.27ppt 至-0.21ppt，连续 10 个季度环比减少并且出现低配。 我们观点如下：1）主动型基金超配军工幅度在 3Q22 达到峰值后，呈现持续下 降趋势。1Q25 转为低配，或为行业底部信号。2）军工主题基金规模呈减少趋 势，1Q25 较历史最高规模已下滑接近 50%。3）1Q25 主动型基金加仓了几乎 所有细分板块，典型如新材料、信息化等。4）1Q25 机构偏好出现变化，主动 型基金回归重点配置白马龙头，且持仓集中度有所降低。 ➢ 持仓分析 主动型基金连续 10 个季度减配军工，并已至低配。1Q25：1）主动型基金 超配/低配民生军工幅度为-0.21ppt（处于低配水平），环比减少 0.27ppt，已经 连续 10 个季度环比减少，变化幅度在所有行业中处于中间位置（排名 16/30）。 2）军工主题基金规模环比减少 8.30%至 320 亿元，较 4Q21 历史最高规 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the military industry, suggesting it may enter a new upward cycle from 2025 to 2027 [6][5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, active funds have shifted to a low allocation in the military sector, marking a potential bottom signal for the industry [1][18]. - The scale of military-themed funds has decreased significantly, dropping nearly 50% from its historical peak [1][22]. - Active funds have increased their holdings across almost all sub-sectors, particularly in new materials and information technology [1][3]. Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Analysis - Active funds have reduced their allocation to the military sector for ten consecutive quarters, with a current low allocation of -0.21 percentage points [2][14]. - The total market value of military-themed funds has decreased by 8.30% to 32 billion yuan, down 47% from the historical high of 60.8 billion yuan [22][24]. - The top ten stocks held by military-themed funds account for an average of 56.53% of the fund's net asset value, indicating a decrease in concentration [22][25]. Industry Dominance and Fund Preferences - State-owned enterprises dominate the military sector, accounting for 70% of the market value, reflecting a focus on these entities by institutional investors [3][30]. - The allocation by industry chain shows that upstream companies hold the highest proportion at 49%, followed by assembly at 28% [3][31]. - Active funds have shown a preference for leading blue-chip stocks, with significant increases in holdings for companies like 中航光电 (AVIC) and 菲利华 (Feilihua) [4][34]. Changes in Fund Holdings - The number of funds holding top military stocks has increased, with 中航光电 (AVIC) and 菲利华 (Feilihua) seeing the most significant growth in fund count [34][35]. - The concentration of holdings among the top fifteen stocks has decreased to 68.95%, down 5.69 percentage points [25][26]. - The report highlights a shift back to blue-chip stocks after a period of focusing on new domains [4][5].