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农林牧渔行业报告(2025.6.22-2025.6.29):猪价触底反弹,降重缓慢推进
China Post Securities· 2025-07-01 06:31
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][41]. Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown a weak performance compared to the market, with the agricultural index rising only 0.80%, ranking 25th among 31 sectors [5][12][13]. - The pig price has rebounded slightly after a decline, with the average price at 14.35 CNY/kg as of June 29, 2025, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.42 CNY/kg [6][16]. - The white feather chicken market is facing challenges with both chick and meat prices declining, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector's index increased by 0.80%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, which rose by 1.95% and 0.91% respectively [12][13]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Weak Price Fluctuations - The average pig price has stopped declining and is now at 14.35 CNY/kg, while the average price for 15kg piglets is 460 CNY/head, showing a slight decrease [6][16]. - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.14 kg, down 0.14 kg from the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.71% [6][16]. - The supply of pigs is expected to remain stable, with a controlled growth rate in supply for 2025, leading to narrow price fluctuations [19][20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Supply Strong, Demand Weak - As of June 27, 2025, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 1.90 CNY/chick, unchanged from the previous week, while the price of meat chickens is 3.40 CNY/kg, down 2.30% [30]. - The industry is currently facing significant losses due to a strong supply and weak demand, with concerns about the impact of imported breeds due to avian influenza outbreaks [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have shown a slight increase, with white sugar priced at 6090 CNY/ton, up 55 CNY/ton [34]. - Soybean prices have also risen, with the imported price at 3739 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.9% increase [34]. - Corn prices have continued to rise, averaging 2392 CNY/ton, up 11 CNY/ton [34].