Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector [12] Core Insights - The price of weaned piglets has accelerated its decline, with prices for 7 kg piglets falling below 300 yuan per head, while the pig price continues to fluctuate at a low level, leading to industry losses that have persisted for about six months. Market-driven capacity reduction is expected to accelerate [2][6] - Geopolitical issues are ongoing, and rising crude oil prices are pushing basic agricultural product prices upward, which may further increase breeding costs. The combination of falling pig prices and rising costs is expected to exacerbate industry losses and accelerate cash flow depletion for breeding enterprises [2][6] - During the downward cycle, the competitiveness of breeding costs will become the core competitive advantage for enterprises. This cycle may lead to a continuous optimization of the industry competitive landscape, with companies that have cost advantages and cash flow expected to enjoy longer profit cycles. The report is optimistic about the pig breeding sector and recommends focusing on it [2][6] Summary by Sections Pig Breeding - As of March 20, 2026, the average price of pigs nationwide is 9.99 yuan/kg, down 33% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. The price of 15 kg piglets is 385 yuan/head, down 39% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month; the price of 7 kg piglets is 294 yuan/head, down 43% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [19] - The industry has faced losses for six months, with cash flow pressure becoming increasingly prominent. Given the current relatively loose supply of pigs, prices are likely to remain at the bottom during the traditional off-season from March to April [7][19] - The report highlights the core competitiveness of low-cost breeding enterprises and continues to recommend companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Dekang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [7] Beef Breeding - Since 2026, beef prices have risen significantly, with the price of fattened bulls at 26.02 yuan/kg, up 8% year-on-year, and calf prices at 34.8 yuan/kg, up 38% year-on-year. The price of breeding cows is 9700 yuan/head, up 10% year-on-year [8][42] - The current cycle of beef breeding has seen prolonged losses, leading to a significant reduction in domestic breeding cow capacity. The report anticipates that the current cycle of beef breeding may last over two years due to tightening global beef supply [8][42] Other Agricultural Products - As of March 20, 2026, corn prices are 2333 yuan/ton, up 6% year-on-year; soybean meal prices are 3372 yuan/ton, up 1% year-on-year; and wheat prices are 2600 yuan/ton, up 7% year-on-year [62][64] - Geopolitical issues may continue to boost agricultural product prices, with rising oil prices increasing planting costs in major agricultural regions [9]

Core Viewpoints - The pig prices have entered a bottom area, with a focus on the water product seedling situation in April [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [2] Market Review - In March 2026, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.04 percentage points, with the sector declining by 4.38% compared to a 4.42% decline in the CSI 300 [18][19] - The livestock breeding sector experienced a smaller decline of 1.4% in March [18][22] Livestock Breeding - In March 2026, the national average price of live pigs was 10.06 CNY/kg, down 12.2% month-on-month and down 30.7% year-on-year [28][29] - The average loss for self-bred pigs in March was approximately 291 CNY per head, a decrease of 192 CNY month-on-month [31] - The average price of piglets was 23.6 CNY/kg, down 7.4% month-on-month [32] - The pig-to-feed ratio was 4.18, down 0.65 month-on-month [32] Feed and Animal Health - In March, the prices of aquatic products fluctuated, with a notable increase in feed prices due to rising raw material costs [6] - The report anticipates significant growth in the feed industry sales in March, driven by the upcoming spring seedling investment [6] - Leading feed companies are expected to expand their market share domestically and internationally due to their cost advantages [6] Dairy Cattle - As of March 19, 2026, the price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.03 CNY/kg, down 1.9% year-on-year [6] - The industry is entering a destocking phase, with supply and demand expected to balance in the future [6] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report highlights several key companies with strong financial metrics, including: - Wen's Foodstuffs Group (300498.SZ) with a target price of 18.55 CNY and a PE ratio of 21.41 for 2025E [7] - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) with a target price of 63.40 CNY and a PE ratio of 16.20 for 2025E [7] - Lihua Agricultural (300761.SZ) with a target price of 28.72 CNY and a PE ratio of 29.67 for 2025E [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [68]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 2.94% [13]. - The pig farming industry is experiencing a continued decline in prices, with an expected increase in supply in April, leading to further price drops in the short term [3][22]. - Poultry farming is facing pressure on prices, particularly for white chickens, but there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [4][36]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is decreasing [5][42]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [6][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector index closed at 2842.41 points, down 2.94% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of March 27, the national pig price was 9.39 yuan/kg, down 5.15% week-on-week, with a significant loss in farming profits [21][22]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 128.71 kg, indicating a potential for further price declines due to supply pressures [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, down 3.00% week-on-week, while profits for parent stock chickens were slightly positive [36]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming remains under pressure, but there is potential for recovery with improved consumer demand [4][36]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 27.03 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 12.25% [5][42]. - The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season, while dairy cow inventory is decreasing [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were 2334.29 yuan/ton, showing slight increases, while uncertainties in global weather may affect crop yields [45][46]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [6][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry have remained stable, while aquaculture prices are showing upward trends [56].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [70]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.50% [13]. - The report highlights ongoing pressures in the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining due to supply-side pressures and a potential increase in slaughter volumes [3][21]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][35]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in milk prices [5][39][42]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement amid external uncertainties [6][45][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2928.56 points, down 4.50% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 9.90 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.79%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.62 kg, indicating a slight increase [21][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and ongoing losses in the sector [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 1.66%. The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has improved slightly [34][35]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. The report expects beef prices to rise as the consumption season approaches [5][40][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2332.86 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.18% week-on-week. The report notes potential improvements in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][45][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 0.30%. Aquaculture prices for various species have remained stable [56].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices continue to hit new lows without signs of a turning point, with cautious breeding and passive inventory accumulation reinforcing weakness in the market [3][4] - As of March 20, 2026, the national average price of live pigs dropped to 9.87 CNY/kg, continuing a downward trend [3][14] - The report indicates that the supply of pigs is abundant, with daily slaughter volumes significantly higher than the same period last year [14] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Pig prices remain at record lows, with a national average of 9.87 CNY/kg as of March 20, 2026, and high daily slaughter volumes [3][14] - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.62 kg, with significant weight differentiation between group farms and individual farmers [14] Market Performance (March 16-20) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.12 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 4.50% [7][36] - Notable stock performances include ST Jinggu (+6.04%), Zhongxing Junye (+4.51%), and Shennong Group (+1.13%) [36] Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture held a meeting with pig farming enterprises to analyze price trends and market regulation strategies [6][45] - The Ministry of Agriculture released a policy list for 2026 aimed at supporting agricultural producers [6][45] Price Tracking (March 16-20) - The average price of live pigs was 9.99 CNY/kg, down 0.09 CNY/kg from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 23.12 CNY/kg, down 1.24 CNY/kg [8][47] - The report notes a decrease in profits for self-breeding and purchased piglets, with average profits of -297.68 CNY/head and -141.48 CNY/head, respectively [8][47] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inventory rate of frozen products was 18.60%, indicating a slight passive accumulation trend [4][18] - The breeding sector remains cautious, with a breeding barn utilization rate of 28.9% as of March 10, 2026, still at a low level [4][21] Breeding Stock Trends - The number of breeding sows showed a marginal increase, with a month-on-month growth of 0.65% in January and 0.73% in February 2026 [5][30] - Piglet prices have rapidly declined, with a price of 294 CNY/head as of March 17, 2026, reflecting weak replenishment demand [5][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector has demonstrated its defensive attributes, with the agricultural index outperforming the market. The agricultural index (Shenwan) increased by 1.01%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The price of live pigs has reached a new low since 2019, with the average price at 10.09 CNY/kg as of March 13, 2026. The supply pressure is expected to remain high in the first half of 2026, leading to continued downward pressure on prices [6][17] - The white feather chicken industry faces restrictions on imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, but domestic supply remains sufficient for now [29][31] - Sugar prices have risen to 5453 CNY/ton, an increase of 93 CNY/ton from the previous week, while soybean prices have also increased by 3.2% to 5381 CNY/ton [34][35] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural index has outperformed the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.70% and the CSI 300 Index up by 0.19% during the same period [13][14] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Swine: Prices Continue to Decline - The average price of live pigs has dropped to 10.09 CNY/kg, marking the lowest since January 2019. The supply remains high, leading to continued price pressure [6][17] - Losses in the swine sector have intensified, with self-bred pigs experiencing an average loss of 283 CNY per head, an increase of 45 CNY from the previous week [18][19] White Feather Chicken: Import Restrictions Reimposed - The average price of chicken seedlings is stable at 3.1 CNY per chick, while the price of live chickens has decreased to 3.52 CNY per jin [29][30] - The supply of breeding chickens remains adequate, but import restrictions due to avian influenza are a significant uncertainty [30][31] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have increased to 5453 CNY/ton, with soybeans at 5381 CNY/ton, and corn prices have risen to 2375 CNY/ton [34][35]

招商证券主要观点如下： 白羽鸡：节后毛鸡价格回落，鸡产品价格显著好于往年 2月主产区毛鸡均价7.49元/千克，同比+24%，环比-1.9%；鸡苗均价2.52元/羽，同比+19.2%，环比 +4.4%；鸡产品均价9300元/吨，同比+2.8%，环比+0.5%；毛鸡养殖端羽均亏损0.02元。本月鸡源相较充 足，但节后需求端承接有限，鸡价自春节后逐步小幅回落；而由于前期鸡苗成本处于低位水平，养殖端 仍有一定盈利；鸡产品价格显著好于往年。节后鸡苗供应量不大，种禽企业挺价意愿明显，支撑苗价向 好。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，2月鸡源相较充足，但节后需求端承接有限，鸡价自春节后 逐步小幅回落；而由于前期鸡苗成本处于低位水平，养殖端仍有一定盈利；鸡产品价格显著好于往年。 节后鸡苗供应量不大，种禽企业挺价意愿明显，支撑苗价向好。春节期间黄羽鸡餐饮消费及家庭消费改 善，尤其节前慢速鸡价更为坚挺，而节假日期间快速鸡也保持着较好盈利。当前黄羽肉鸡出栏成本已回 落至低位，2月份头部养殖企业羽均盈利或已提升至2元左右，同时看好26年黄鸡高景气延续。 结合产能来看，当前父母代产能已降至历史偏低位水平，再加之2025年行业亏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural sector [11] Core Insights - Recent declines in pig prices, with the lowest recorded at 10.2 CNY/kg in mid-March, have led to over five months of industry losses. This situation is expected to accelerate the elimination of breeding sows, initiating a market-driven capacity reduction in pig farming [2][6] - The competitive landscape in the pig farming industry is anticipated to improve, favoring companies with cost advantages and strong cash flow, which are expected to enjoy prolonged profit cycles. Recommended companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group, DeKang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [2][7] - Geopolitical issues are driving up planting costs in major agricultural regions, which may lead to rising prices for major agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat. Recent increases in soybean meal prices indicate a significant uptick in market conditions [6][9] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 13, 2026, the average price of pigs is 10.28 CNY/kg, down 31% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month. The price of weaned piglets has also decreased, with 7 kg piglets priced at 326 CNY/head, a 32% year-on-year drop [19] - The industry has faced over five months of losses, with cash flow pressures becoming increasingly evident. The current oversupply of pigs and the seasonal decline in consumption are likely to keep prices at the bottom for March and April [7][19] - The report emphasizes that high-cost farming entities will be the first to exit the market, highlighting the core competitiveness of low-cost farming enterprises [2][7] Beef Farming - Beef prices have been on the rise since 2026, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.79 CNY/kg, up 8% year-on-year. The price of calves has surged by 40% year-on-year, indicating a robust market [8][35] - The report suggests that the current cycle of beef farming may last over two years due to tightening global beef supply and the implementation of import quotas by the end of 2025 [8][42] Other Agricultural Products - As of March 13, 2026, corn prices are at 2329 CNY/ton, up 6% year-on-year, while soybean meal prices are at 3474 CNY/ton, showing a 10% month-on-month increase. Wheat prices have also risen by 6% year-on-year [65] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to continue influencing agricultural prices, with potential disruptions in trade routes affecting supply chains [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with the industry index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in prices, with supply pressures likely to continue affecting prices in the short term. However, the long-term outlook remains positive due to potential profit recovery for leading companies [3][20]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices are under pressure, the yellow feather chicken market shows signs of improvement due to better demand and supply adjustments. The overall profitability in the poultry sector is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [4][32]. - The beef market is entering a consumption peak, with prices expected to rise. The dairy sector is also seeing a reduction in cow inventory, which may lead to price stabilization in the second half of the year [5][38]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing an upward trend. The overall planting industry is stabilizing, and any significant reduction in grain production could enhance the sector's outlook [6][41]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are seeing stable feed prices, while aquatic product prices are on the rise, indicating a positive trend in these markets [54]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 13, the national commodity pig price is 10.08 CNY/kg, down 2.33% week-on-week. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.55 kg, which is relatively high compared to historical data. The sector is expected to see further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and policy-driven capacity reductions [19][20]. - The report recommends focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in pig prices in the medium to long term [3][20]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.21 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease. However, yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand. The overall profitability in the poultry sector is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [31][32]. Livestock - As of March 6, live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.00 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 14.60%. The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters a consumption peak. The dairy sector is also experiencing a reduction in cow inventory, which may lead to price stabilization in the second half of the year [5][35][38]. Planting Industry - As of March 13, domestic corn prices are 2328.57 CNY/ton, up 5.04% week-on-week. The planting sector is stabilizing, and any significant reduction in grain production could enhance the sector's outlook [41][42]. Feed and Aquaculture - As of March 6, feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.35 CNY/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends, indicating a favorable market environment for these sectors [54].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with the industry index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in prices, with supply-side pressures likely to continue affecting prices. The average weight of pigs at market is currently 128.55 kg, which is higher than historical averages, suggesting potential for further price drops [3][19]. - In the poultry farming sector, the supply of white feather chickens remains ample, keeping prices under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][32]. - The beef market is entering a consumption peak, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 27.00 CNY/kg, indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.60%. The dairy sector is also seeing a gradual recovery in prices, with average purchase prices for raw milk stabilizing [5][36]. - The planting sector is witnessing fluctuations in corn prices, with a current price of 2328.57 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.04%. The overall planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][42]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Current national pig prices are at 10.08 CNY/kg, down 2.33% week-on-week. The average profit for self-bred pigs is -283.15 CNY/head, indicating significant losses in the sector [19][20]. - The report suggests that the industry is likely to see accelerated capacity reduction due to ongoing losses and policy adjustments [20]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.21 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.14% week-on-week. The profitability of parent stock chickens has improved slightly, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [32][33]. - The report anticipates that if consumer demand improves, poultry prices may rebound, with a focus on companies like Lihua Co., Shengnong Development, and Yisheng Co. [33]. Livestock - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters a consumption peak, with live cattle prices showing a positive trend. The dairy sector is also stabilizing, with raw milk prices expected to recover in the latter half of the year [5][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the meat and dairy sectors for potential upward trends [39]. Planting Sector - The report notes that corn prices are experiencing upward pressure, with a current price of 2328.57 CNY/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases significantly [6][42]. - Companies involved in seed production and agricultural technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [43]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.35 CNY/kg. Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with stable prices for various seafood products [53][54].