Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3050.01 点(周环比+2.70%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4628.14 点（周环比-1.08%），深证综指收于 2511.55 点（周环比-0.31%），上证综指收于 3990.49 点（周环比-0.18%），科 创板收于 1361.23 点（周环比-3.85%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 目前猪价仍处于下跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅 下降，本周生猪出栏均重为 128.48 公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月生猪出栏环 比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，预计季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策端主动去产能或持续 推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业 产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目 前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利润，且 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [68]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% over the past week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the pig farming industry, with prices continuing to decline and the entire sector currently facing losses [3][21]. - In the poultry farming sector, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][30]. - The beef and dairy sectors are expected to see price increases as the consumption season approaches, despite ongoing losses in these industries [5][36]. - The planting industry is experiencing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][42]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are stabilizing, with feed prices remaining steady and certain aquatic product prices showing upward trends [55][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is currently 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week, with a significant loss in farming profits [21][22]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space for prices to drop further [3][22]. - Long-term prospects for the swine industry remain positive, with recommendations to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while yellow feather chicken prices are expected to improve due to better demand [4][30]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is under pressure, but there is potential for recovery if consumer demand strengthens [4][30]. 3. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.87 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady increases as the consumption season approaches [5][36]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a decrease in stock trends, but prices are expected to stabilize in the coming year as supply gradually decreases [5][36]. 4. Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2152.86 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [6][42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and the potential for the planting sector to recover if significant reductions in production occur [6][42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and certain fish species [55][58]. - The report indicates a general stabilization in feed prices, which is beneficial for the overall profitability of the aquaculture sector [55][58].

Core Viewpoint - He Feng Co., Ltd. is a leading agricultural and animal husbandry enterprise in China, with a diversified business model covering feed, poultry, and pig industries, showcasing integrated advantages along the industrial chain [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, He Feng's revenue reached 28.073 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry, significantly higher than the industry average of 9.706 billion yuan and the median of 5.242 billion yuan [2] - The main business composition includes poultry industry at 6.733 billion yuan (38.68%), feed products at 6.248 billion yuan (35.89%), feed raw materials at 2.408 billion yuan (13.84%), pig industry at 1.649 billion yuan (9.47%), and others at 369 million yuan (2.12%) [2] - The net profit for the same period was 96.38 million yuan, ranking fifth in the industry, below the industry average of 108 million yuan and above the median of 43.21 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, He Feng's debt-to-asset ratio was 56.83%, higher than the previous year's 50.00% and above the industry average of 54.11% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 5.78%, lower than the previous year's 6.36% and below the industry average of 9.94% [3] Group 3: Management and Shareholder Information - The chairman, Jin Weidong, received a salary of 820,000 yuan in 2024, an increase of 50,000 yuan from 2023 [4] - The total number of A-share shareholders increased by 4.18% to 22,500 as of September 30, 2025, while the average number of shares held per shareholder decreased by 4.01% to 40,500 [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Growth - He Feng's feed sales increased by 16% year-on-year, with a total of 2.1 million tons sold in H1 2025 [5] - The pig industry saw a significant increase in output, with 840,000 pigs sold, representing a 44.8% year-on-year growth [5] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth due to integrated industrial chain collaboration, with projected net profits of 559 million yuan, 748 million yuan, and 812 million yuan for 2025 to 2027 [6]

Core Insights - The chicken industry is experiencing significant performance divergence among listed companies in Q3, with some achieving remarkable profit growth while others face substantial declines [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shengnong Development (002299) reported a net profit increase of 202.82% year-on-year, reaching 1.159 billion yuan, despite a 11.4% decline in Q3 net profit [1]. - Chunxue Food (605567) saw a staggering 1320.44% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, totaling 33.87 million yuan, with Q3 net profit growth of 190.90% driven by cost optimization and export growth [1]. - Lihua Co. (300761) experienced a 75.27% decline in net profit for the first three quarters, with Q3 decline further expanding to 76.40% due to downward pressure on yellow feather chicken prices [1]. - Yisheng Co. (002458) faced an 89.42% drop in net profit for the first three quarters, with negative growth in both revenue and net profit in Q3, although showing improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. - Minhe Co. (002234) continued to incur losses, reporting a net loss of 230 million yuan for the first three quarters [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The fluctuations in the chicken industry are attributed to a combination of price cycles and cost disturbances, with yellow feather chicken selling at an average price of 13.53 yuan/kg in Q3 [2]. - The average price of white feather chicken products in September was 8,663 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.8% decrease month-on-month and a 6.4% year-on-year decline, primarily due to high inventory levels and weaker-than-expected consumer demand [2]. - The industry anticipates a potential recovery in both volume and price in Q4, driven by upcoming holidays and limited supply growth, which may support price increases for yellow feather chicken [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in pork prices since October may lead to lower-than-expected demand for chicken as a substitute [3]. - Leading companies are focusing on full industry chain integration and channel structure upgrades to build competitive advantages, making them attractive to investors [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index declining by 1.36% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% [12][15]. - The pig price has rebounded slightly but lacks the foundation for significant increases, with prices reaching 11.71 yuan/kg as of October 26, 2025, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.68 yuan/kg [5][17]. - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices at 3.5 yuan/chick, but the terminal demand remains weak, leading to losses in broiler chicken farming [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector performed poorly, significantly lagging behind the broader market indices [12][15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Price Lacks Strong Rebound Foundation - National pig prices have rebounded to 11.71 yuan/kg, but significant price increases are not expected due to increased supply and weak demand [5][17]. - As of October 24, 2025, self-breeding pig farms faced an average loss of 186 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incurred a loss of 289 yuan per head [18]. - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a slight decrease in breeding stock in September, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [19][20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Stable Prices, Weak Terminal Demand - Chick prices are stable, but broiler prices are under pressure due to weak consumer demand, leading to losses in farming [31][32]. - The number of grandparent stock updated has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% reduction compared to the previous year [31][32]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with white sugar priced at 5750 yuan/ton as of October 24, 2025 [39]. - Soybean prices have slightly increased, with Brazilian soybeans at 4011 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.4% rise [39]. - Cotton prices have seen a minor increase, now at 14793 yuan/ton, while corn prices remain stable at 2217 yuan/ton [39].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [71]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 1.36% [13][14]. - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the industry currently facing losses, and anticipates further price declines in the short term [3][20]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, particularly for yellow-feathered chickens, while white-feathered chickens continue to face price pressures [4][34]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, despite ongoing losses in the dairy sector [5][39]. - The planting industry is experiencing short-term supply pressures, but there is potential for improvement if grain production decreases significantly [6][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing positive price trends for certain species [58]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2889.08 points, down 1.36% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - National pig prices are at 11.82 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.82%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.90 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [20][21]. - The industry is expected to continue facing losses, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, showing slight increases, while profits for parent stock chickens have improved [32][34]. - The report suggests that if consumer demand recovers, poultry prices may rebound [34]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.12 yuan/kg, with expectations for price increases as the consumption season approaches [5][39]. - The dairy sector is under pressure, but there are signs of potential recovery in raw milk prices next year [5][39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2174.29 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop releases and external uncertainties [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring grain prices and potential production declines [46]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with specific fish prices showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and certain fish species [58][63].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on low-cost quality pig farming leaders for investment opportunities [2][12] Core Views - The current price of lean meat pigs is 11.6 CNY/kg, up 5.6% from last week, but the upward momentum lacks sustainability due to ongoing supply pressures and the absence of a consumption peak [11][12] - In the poultry sector, white feather chicken prices have seen slight increases, with broiler prices at 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.1%, and chicken product prices at 8.65 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [12][29] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies, with commercial sales anticipated to begin post-publicity period [12] - The agricultural sector is experiencing price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [12] Summary by Sections Livestock - The lean meat pig price is currently 11.6 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork is 17.73 CNY/kg, down 1.7% [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has decreased by 0.3% to 127.9 kg, and the price of 15 kg piglets has dropped by 2.2% to 19.55 CNY/kg [20][22] - Self-breeding and self-raising profitability has improved, with average losses of -185.68 CNY per head for self-breeding, and -289.07 CNY for purchased piglets [17][18] Poultry - The price of broiler chicks has increased by 0.9% to 3.32 CNY each, while the average price of white feather chickens is 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.1% [12][29] - The profit from parent stock chicken breeding is 0.57 CNY per chick, while broiler breeding remains at a loss of -1.76 CNY per chick [35][36] Agricultural Products - The domestic corn price has decreased by 0.6% to 2248.63 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have increased slightly by 0.1% to 3996.84 CNY/ton [45][58] - The report highlights the potential for investment in the agricultural sector due to the anticipated growth from the commercialization of genetically modified crops [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price has bottomed out and is rebounding, but the overall trend of breeding stock reduction remains unchanged. The short-term increase in breeding stock does not alter the long-term reduction trend [3][12] - The beef price continues to rise, but there is cautious replenishment in the industry due to differing expectations. The cattle inventory decreased in Q3 2025 [4][28] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig farming losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and feed sectors [5][31][34] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales increased to 2.09%, with a significant rise in breeding barn utilization rate to 44.8% [17][12] - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of pigs in China was 11.81 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.63 CNY/kg, but a year-on-year decrease of 5.74% [12][3] Weekly Perspective - The report notes that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The report recommends companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others [5][31] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended companies include Haida Group and New Hope [31] Market Performance (October 20-24) - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 4.24 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88% while the agriculture index fell by 1.36% [35][37] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors [35] Price Tracking (October 20-24) - The average price of pigs was 11.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.65 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets was 17.66 CNY/kg, down by 0.33 CNY/kg [43][44] - The average wholesale price of beef was 66.21 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.21 CNY/kg [48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the development and modernization of the white feather chicken industry in Linyi City, Shandong Province, showcasing advanced technology and significant economic benefits [1][2] - The white feather chicken industry in Linyi has evolved from small-scale family farming to a comprehensive industrial chain, achieving a total output value of 5.16 billion yuan by the end of 2021 [1][2] - The introduction of a new incubation project has addressed key weaknesses in the industry, leading to improved performance metrics such as a 99% output rate and a feed-to-meat ratio of 1.30, which is lower than the industry average [2][3] Group 2 - The county government has implemented targeted measures to strengthen the industrial chain, including financial support and attracting investment, resulting in a more resilient industry capable of withstanding risks [2] - By 2024, the total output value of the entire industrial chain is projected to exceed 10.38 billion yuan, creating over 12,000 jobs and establishing a comprehensive industry cluster [2][3] - The Linyi white feather chicken model has been recognized as a typical case by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, enhancing its brand recognition nationally [2][3]