丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 农业周专题系列一：生猪价格全面走弱，产能市 场化出清或正式开启 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 春节后猪价全面走低，全行业亏损时间基本已超 5 个月，养殖产能市场化出清或正式开启。我 们认为养殖产能去化是一个持续的过程，成本高的养殖主体会率先实现去化，周期下行阶段养 殖成本的竞争力也将成为企业最核心的竞争力。本轮周期或将带来养殖行业竞争格局的持续优 化，真正有成本优势以及现金流的企业有望迎来更长盈利周期。全面看好养殖板块，重点推荐 低成本以及现金流具有优势的养殖企业：温氏股份、德康农牧、神农集团，建议关注巨星农牧， 立华股份和天康生物。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490519060003 SAC：S0490525080006 SFC：BQT624 陈佳 顾熀乾 卜凡星 刘文一 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 农业周专题系列一：生猪价格全面走弱，产能市 2] 场化出清或正 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2026.02.23-2026.02.28）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2972.60 点(周环比+4.01%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4710.65 点（周环比+1.08%），深证综指收于 2763.59 点（周环比+3.10%），上证综指收于 4162.88 点（周环比+1.98%），科 创板收于 1488.02 点（周环比+1.20%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。 生猪养殖： 节后整体处于供需双弱的情况，目前生猪价格继续下跌，整体来看供给端压力或使得价格仍有下跌空间。本周生猪出 栏均重为 127.73 公斤/头，目前生猪均重较历史同期偏高，生猪出栏均重或持续下降，行业出栏相对积极。从供给端 角度来看，2 月份预计出栏总量略有增加，整体节前仍有供给增量支撑，预计春节前后生猪价格仍有下探空间。政策 端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年猪价上涨。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降 空间，近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行 业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优 ...

（来源：新华日报） □ 本报记者 赵芳 "赵老板不光给我们开稳定工资，还教养殖技术。"正在给苗鸡添料的务工村民姜康华手上麻利地操作 着，脸上笑意盈盈，"在家门口上班，每月能拿3600元左右，既能照顾老人孩子，又不用背井离乡，日 子越过越有奔头！"身旁的韩玉花接过话茬，"年前我们给赵老板送了自家蒸的馒头和年糕，他在这儿守 着鸡苗，没法回家团圆，我们也想让他感受年味，谢谢他给我们创造这么好的就业机会。" 这份邻里情让赵荣兵倍感温暖。"虽然没和家人一起过年，但有了员工们的心意，这个年过得同样暖 心，我早就把这儿当成家了。"他弯腰捡起一只绒毛略显凌乱的雏苗，轻轻放在掌心检查，"你看这小家 伙，羽毛还没长齐，得格外留意。今年冬季市场行情低迷，只投了近11万只苗鸡，可不能出半点差 错。" 鸡舍内，通风系统嗡嗡作响，温湿度计指针精准定格在适宜区间，赵荣兵手持饲喂壶，沿着一排排鸡笼 匀速移动，玉米粒均匀撒落的沙沙声，与雏苗的啾鸣声交织成独特的"新春序曲"。他抬手抹了把脸上的 汗，声音带着些许沙哑却格外坚定，"养殖行业没有节假日，越是过节越要坚守，这些雏苗关系着养殖 场的生计，更关系着乡亲们来年的收入，我得守住这份责任。" 从 ...

2月20日上午，灌南县田楼镇振东村的现代化养殖大棚里，64岁的淮安籍养殖大户赵荣兵正穿梭在排列 整齐的鸡舍之间，粗糙的手掌轻轻拨开雏苗群，目光紧锁着食槽与饮水器，"小家伙们才6天龄，娇气着 呢，温度差一度都不行。"他指尖触碰到鸡舍内壁的温控仪，"你听这叽叽喳喳的叫声，清亮有力，就说 明状态不错。" 今年，是赵荣兵扎根振东村养鸡以来，在鸡场里度过的又一个春节。四年前，怀揣着对养殖事业的执着 与信心，他来到振东村，投资180万元建起两座总面积3200平方米的标准化养殖大棚，一次性投放苗鸡 20万只，正式开启规模化白羽鸡养殖之路。2023年，赵荣兵再投700余万元新扩建6个养殖大棚，凭借科 学管理与成熟技术，养殖场白羽鸡一年可出栏6茬，常年带动当地8至10名村民就近就业，让乡亲们在家 门口稳增收、奔小康。 "赵老板不光给我们开稳定工资，还教养殖技术。"正在给苗鸡添料的务工村民姜康华手上麻利地操作 着，脸上笑意盈盈，"在家门口上班，每月能拿3600元左右，既能照顾老人孩子，又不用背井离乡，日 子越过越有奔头！"身旁的韩玉花接过话茬："年前我们给赵老板送了自家蒸的馒头和年糕，他在这儿守 着鸡苗，没法回家团圆，我们也想让 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the stabilization and rebound of pig prices, with the January average price for external three yuan pigs at 12.68 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.58% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [8][21] - The "No. 1 Document" emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is crucial for achieving self-sufficiency in seed sources and enhancing grain production capacity [19][20] - The pet food sector shows a positive trend, with December 2025 pet food exports reaching 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49% [35] Summary by Sections Market Review - In January 2026, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.63%, ranking 23rd among 30 sectors, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.65% [11] - The animal health sector performed well, while the forestry processing sector saw declines [11] Biological Breeding - The "No. 1 Document" calls for the implementation of actions to revitalize the seed industry and accelerate the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties [19][20] - The focus is on stabilizing grain and oil production and enhancing yield levels [19] Livestock and Poultry Data Tracking - Pig prices showed a rebound in January, with a tight supply supporting price increases [21] - The average price of white feather chickens rose to 3.73 yuan/jin, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% [28] Pet Food Exports - Pet food exports maintained a year-on-year growth, with total exports for 2025 reaching 361,300 tons, a 7.78% increase [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Holdings, as the industry’s price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios are below historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the stabilization and rebound of pig prices, with the "No. 1 Document" reiterating the importance of biological breeding [8] - The report emphasizes the significance of the biological breeding industry for achieving self-sufficiency in seed sources and enhancing grain production capacity [19][20] - The report indicates that the industry is currently undervalued, with price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios below historical averages, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.63%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.65% [11] - The animal health sector showed strong performance, while the timber processing sector lagged [11] Biological Breeding - The "No. 1 Document" emphasizes the need to promote the industrialization of biological breeding, which is crucial for achieving self-reliance in seed sources and enhancing grain production [19][20] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - In January 2026, the average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.58% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [21] - The average price of white feather chickens rose to 3.73 yuan/jin, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% and a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [28] Pet Food Exports - In December 2025, pet food exports reached 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49%, while the total export value for the year was 1.41 billion USD, a decrease of 4.62% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as they are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [8]

Market Overview - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% during the week of February 2-8, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector fell by 1.92%, ranking 23rd among sectors [5] - The top-performing sub-industries included food and feed additives, broiler farming, pig farming, aquaculture, and grain and oil processing [5] Pig Farming Industry - Pig prices continued to decline, with self-breeding pig farming profits showing losses. As of February 6, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 yuan/kg, reflecting week-on-week decreases of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% respectively [13] - The average pork price was 18.34 yuan/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week. The average wholesale price for piglets remained stable at 16.50 yuan/kg [13] - As of February 6, self-breeding farming profits were -38.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 63.19 yuan/head from the previous week, while profits from purchasing piglets were 91.42 yuan/head, down 32.71 yuan/head [13] Feed Industry - The competition in the feed industry has shifted from product competition to value chain competition, leading to accelerated industry consolidation. Market share is increasingly concentrated among leading companies with advantages in R&D, scale, and integrated services [2] - Haida Group is expected to benefit from this trend due to its efficient internal management, effective business incentives, and strong service advantages in the supply chain [2] Broiler Farming Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased, with a weekly price of 7.53 yuan/kg, down 2.71%. The profit from broiler farming was -0.26 yuan/bird, a significant drop of 166.67% from the previous week [29] - The price of eggs was 8.2 yuan/kg, down 6.82% from the previous week [29] Aquaculture Industry - In the marine product sector, prices for sea cucumbers and shrimp remained stable at 120 yuan/kg and 320 yuan/kg respectively. In freshwater products, prices for various fish showed slight increases [45] - The international spot price for fish meal was 2239.77 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [45] Grain and Oil Processing - Grain prices showed mixed trends. As of February 6, corn was priced at 2368.43 yuan/ton (-0.33%), soybeans at 4072.11 yuan/ton (unchanged), and wheat at 2531.11 yuan/ton (+0.05%) [55] - The price of soybean meal was 3159.14 yuan/ton, down 1.19%, while the prices for both soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased by 1.72% and 1.95% respectively [55]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 | [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | 本周猪价小幅回落，优选成本领先的龙头猪企 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group, "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development and Wens Foodstuff, and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Shares [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the feed industry is transitioning from product competition to value chain competition, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading companies with advantages in technology, scale, and service [7]. - Haida Group is expected to continue gaining market share due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [7]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is undergoing a market-driven capacity reduction, which may stabilize prices in the coming months [8]. Industry Performance Overview - For the week of January 26 to February 1, the agricultural sector saw a 1.82% increase, ranking fifth among sectors, while the CSI 300 index had a slight increase of 0.08% [6][16]. - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with average prices for external three-way pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 12.15, 12.16, and 12.63 yuan/kg respectively, reflecting decreases of 5.08%, 9.66%, and 4.54% [6][26]. - The average pork price increased slightly to 18.61 yuan/kg, up by 0.65% [6][26]. Livestock and Feed Industry - The report indicates that the average profit for self-bred pigs is 25.10 yuan/head, down by 18.25 yuan from the previous week, while the profit for purchased pig farming increased by 8.29 yuan to 124.13 yuan/head [6][26]. - In the poultry sector, the price of white feather chickens rose to 7.74 yuan/kg, a 3.20% increase, and the profit per chicken increased significantly by 550% to 0.39 yuan/chicken [44]. - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, while chicken feed prices were steady at 3.45 yuan/kg [47]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing consolidation in the feed industry, with a focus on companies that can leverage technological and service advantages [7]. - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift towards R&D and supply chain management as key competitive factors [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [8].