投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.08.18-2025.08.22）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2941.27 点(周环比+3.72%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4378.00 点（周环比+4.18%），深证综指收于 2393.21 点（周环比+4.02%），上证综指收于 3825.76 点（周环比+3.49%），科 创板收于 1247.86 点（周环比+13.31%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 127.98 公斤/头，价格偏弱下散户出栏积极性提升，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.12%至 17.32%， 在价格持续下跌以及部分地区天气转凉的背景下，生猪出栏节奏有所放缓，整体看出栏均重依旧处于较高位置，后续 生猪价格仍存在较大压力。目前政策端对能繁母猪存栏向下调控方向不变，此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续 加强环保管理，部分母猪场因环保因素开始整顿。当下猪价表现下成本较差企业已经出现亏损，预计养殖成本较差企 业已经开始调减产能，而在供给压力持续后移的背景下，预计短期生猪价格依旧存在较大压力。若行业产能有序调控， 预计近期能繁母猪存栏出现下降，中期行业盈利中枢有望提升。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [46][47]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.32% from August 1 to August 14, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.08 percentage points [10][11]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only the fishery sector showing a negative return of -0.64%. The agricultural product processing, feed, planting, animal health, and breeding sectors saw increases of 6.53%, 1.88%, 0.97%, 0.93%, and 0.38%, respectively [11][12]. - Approximately 57% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [12]. Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fell from 14.21 CNY/kg to 13.82 CNY/kg between August 1 and August 14, 2025. - The cost of corn was 2394.12 CNY/ton, showing a recent decline, while soybean meal was priced at 3126 CNY/ton, which increased recently [21][23]. - Profit for self-bred pigs was 28.85 CNY/head, while the profit for purchased piglets was -157.05 CNY/head, both showing a decline compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 3.58 CNY/chick, which continued to rise, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.6 CNY/chick, showing a slight decline [28]. - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.2 CNY/kg, which increased, and the profit for white feather broiler farming was 1.03 CNY/chick, also showing an upward trend [32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp was 22.38 CNY/kg, showing a slight decline, while the average price for carp was 15.69 CNY/kg, which increased [34]. Company Insights - The report highlights several companies to watch, including: - Muyuan Foods (002714), noted for its cost, scale, and integration advantages in pig farming [48]. - Haida Group (002311), recognized as a leading feed company with expected market share growth [48]. - Shennong Development (002299), a leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in breeding and food business expansion [48]. - Reap Bio (300119), a leader in the animal health industry with a growing product matrix for pet health [48]. - Zhongchong Co. (002891), a top player in the pet food sector with strong domestic growth and recovering export business [48].

近期，白羽鸡价格经历"过山车"式波动。7月初部分地区白羽鸡毛鸡价格跌破3元/斤，然而 到了8月份，毛鸡价格最高飙升至3.7元/斤，鸡苗价格更是从1.5元/只涨至4.2元/只，还依 然供不应求。这给养殖企业带来怎样的影响？ 江苏淮安：养殖需求增加 鸡苗价格上涨供不应求 江苏省淮安市淮阴区某白羽鸡养殖基地管理人员王金成介绍："我们厂目前每批次白羽鸡能 养100万只左右，大概45天就可以出栏。7月份行业深度亏损，一些种禽厂为减少损失，采 取抽毛蛋、提前淘汰种鸡等一些极端措施，缓解过剩压力。但是过度的淘汰导致8月鸡苗供 应缺口扩大，苗价涨到4.2元一只，波动性增大。 " 养殖场负责人介绍，由于前段时间气温高，不少小规模的养殖场和散户暂停养殖，如今随着 气温降低，更适宜白羽鸡生长，是导致这一轮白羽鸡毛鸡和鸡苗价格快速上涨的主要原因。 在肉鸡主产省山东，鸡苗价格涨幅更是惊人，一个多月的时间上涨了300%。 在山东滨州沾化一家肉鸡养殖合作社， 肉鸡养殖户 都景刚最新购买了2万羽白羽肉鸡鸡苗 进行补栏，价格较7月初累计上涨300%。 养殖基地计划通过降低饲料成本、提高鸡苗存活率和降低料肉比，来应对鸡苗价格上涨所带 来的成本增 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong policy catalyst and a resonating fundamental backdrop, indicating a positive outlook for the pig farming sector as prices are expected to rise from current lows [4][28] - The report suggests that the investment logic for pig farming is improving marginally, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with a recommendation for specific companies in the sector [5][28] - The report notes that the domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report indicates that the current rhythm of pig shipments is suppressing short-term prices, with the national average price for pigs at 13.67 yuan/kg as of August 8, 2025, down 0.60 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 6.97% year-on-year [12][4] - The average weight of pigs at market as of August 7, 2025, is 127.80 kg, showing a slight decrease week-on-week but an increase year-on-year [12][4] - The utilization rate of breeding facilities is reported at 51.6%, reflecting a decrease both month-on-month and year-on-year [12][4] Weekly Perspective - The investment logic for pig farming is showing signs of improvement, with expectations for prices to rise in the second half of 2025 due to both fundamental and policy support [28] - The report recommends several companies including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others as key investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [5][28] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the broader market by 0.4 percentage points during the week of August 4-8, 2025, with the agricultural index rising by 2.52% [33][36] - Specific stocks such as Zhongji Health and Zhenghong Technology saw significant gains, leading the market [41][33] Price Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, the average price for pigs is reported at 13.71 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.62 yuan/kg from the previous week [44][45] - The report also tracks prices for other agricultural products, noting fluctuations in chicken and beef prices during the same period [44][45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector is experiencing a marginal improvement in investment logic for live pigs, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of a price increase in the second half of 2025 [26] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands, supported by consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with a projected market size growth of over 10% annually from 2025 to 2027 [28][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The national pig price is under pressure due to group weight reduction and increased market supply, with an average price of 14.02 CNY/kg as of August 3, 2025, down 0.57% from the previous week [5][14] - The average weight of pigs sold has decreased to 127.98 kg, reflecting a downward trend due to weight reduction policies and slow growth in high temperatures [16] Weekly Insights - The investment logic for live pigs is improving, with expectations of price support in the second half of 2025 due to a combination of fundamental and policy factors [26] - The feed sector is benefiting from a recovery in domestic livestock and poultry production, with a total feed output expected to reach 1.4 trillion CNY in 2023 [26] Market Performance - The agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 2.03 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 2.97% during the week [30][31] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains, with stocks like Shenlian Biological and Huisheng Biological leading the performance [30] Price Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the average price for live pigs was 14.33 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 1.27% from the previous week [42] - The average price for corn was 2,296 CNY/ton, down 0.78% week-on-week, while soybean meal was priced at 3,004 CNY/ton, down 0.69% [60] Key News - The overall situation in China's livestock industry is stable and improving, with a reported production increase of 2.8% in meat output during the first half of 2025 [38] - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, indicating a potential reduction in pig supply, which may stabilize prices [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agricultural sector's public fund heavy holdings increased in Q2 2025, benefiting from US-China tariff disturbances and policy catalysts, with total market capitalization rising to 13,208 billion yuan, up 6.80% quarter-on-quarter [13][12] - The investment logic for the pig industry is improving marginally, with expectations for a price increase in H2 2025 driven by both fundamental and policy factors [23][5] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands, supported by consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with the pet food market expected to exceed 60 billion yuan by 2025 [26][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The agricultural sector's public fund heavy holdings increased, with a total market capitalization of 13,208 billion yuan, representing 1.74% of the A-share market [13][12] - The pig price is expected to stabilize and rise due to ongoing capacity adjustments and supply pressures [4][16] Weekly Market Performance (July 21-25) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.95 percentage points, with the agricultural index rising 3.62% [27][29] - Leading stocks included Shen Nong Group (+15.42%), Zhong Ji Health (+11.63%), and Bang Ji Technology (+11.41%) [32][27] Price Tracking (July 21-25) - The average price of live pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, down 0.12% from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, also down 0.07% [35][38] - The price of soybean meal increased to 2,983 yuan/ton, up 1.86% week-on-week, driven by rising import costs [19][49] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture [5][23] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [5][23] - For the pet sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [74]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.62% week-on-week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights a focus on high-quality development in the pig farming industry, with a call for better market guidance and policy support [3][22]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing price adjustments due to weak downstream demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. - The beef and dairy sectors are seeing price stability, with expectations for a new cycle in beef prices as supply constraints continue [5][39][42]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases due to external uncertainties [6][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2855.04 points, with a week-on-week increase of 3.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.48 kg, with a slight increase in slaughter rates due to high temperatures [3][22]. - The average price of pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.84% [21]. - Leading pig farming companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 yuan per pig, with a focus on low-cost operations [3][23]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 6.70 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [29]. - The overall poultry sector is stabilizing, with expectations for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle was 26.49 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week [5][40]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a stabilization in prices as supply constraints continue [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were 2,332.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.12% [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases [6][45]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.35 yuan/kg [61]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing [61][66].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for selective investment in quality companies [78]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a challenging market environment [12]. - The report highlights the stabilization of the pig farming industry, with leading companies expected to maintain profitability despite supply pressures [24]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing price adjustments due to weak demand, but there is potential for recovery as consumer demand improves [37]. - The livestock sector is seeing a gradual increase in beef prices, while dairy prices are stabilizing, suggesting a potential turning point for profitability [44]. - The planting industry is facing supply pressures, but there is optimism for improvement if significant crop reductions occur [46]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing price stability, with certain aquatic products experiencing upward trends [64]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2755.32 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, underperforming compared to major indices [12][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.83 kg, with a slight decrease in price to 14.27 yuan/kg, down 3.65% week-on-week [22][23]. - Leading companies are expected to achieve profits exceeding 200 yuan per pig, with a potential for improved profitability in the medium term [24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 6.40 yuan/kg, with a slight increase, but overall prices remain under pressure due to high supply [36][37]. - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic conditions improve [37]. 2.3 Livestock - The average price for live cattle was 26.48 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase, while dairy prices are stabilizing [39][40]. - The sector is expected to see a new cycle of beef production as prices for calves and live cattle rise [44]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were reported at 2,330.00 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to external uncertainties and potential crop reductions [45][46]. - The planting sector is anticipated to improve if significant reductions in crop yields occur [46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with specific aquatic products like shrimp and abalone maintaining their prices [64][67]. - The aquaculture sector is showing signs of recovery, with certain products experiencing price increases [64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][9]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is currently experiencing weak market demand and low prices for livestock and poultry, particularly in the pig farming sector, which has seen a significant price drop [9][12]. - The report highlights that the industry is currently undervalued, with price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios below historical averages, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [9][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In June 2025, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.50%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.37 percentage points [9][12]. - The planting sector showed the highest gains, while the animal health processing sector experienced the largest declines [12]. Livestock Farming Data Tracking - **Pig Farming**: The average trading price for pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 2.16% month-on-month and 21.81% year-on-year. The market shifted to a surplus situation, leading to price declines [9][17]. - **Broiler Chickens**: The average price for broiler chicks in June 2025 was 2.15 yuan/chick, reflecting a slight decrease. The cautious replenishment of chicks due to declining prices further pressured the market [9][27]. Pet Food Sector - In May 2025, pet food exports totaled 28,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.52%. The cumulative export value for the first five months was $581 million, up 4.59% year-on-year [9][34]. Major Agricultural Product Price Tracking - The report includes tracking of key agricultural product prices, indicating fluctuations in corn, wheat, and soybean meal prices during June 2025 [9][39]. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The report outlines significant events in the industry, including a decrease in grain imports and ongoing developments in the seed industry aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity [9][46]. - Key announcements from listed companies in the sector include various asset restructuring and financing activities [9][48].

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing, where Yum China showcased its "Yum and Harmony Development Plan" aimed at enhancing supply chain collaboration and quality sourcing [1] - Since its first restaurant opened in 1987, Yum China has expanded to over 16,000 restaurants across more than 2,300 towns in China, operating brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Little Sheep, Huang Ji Huang, and Taco Bell [1] - Yum China's Vice President of Supply Chain Management emphasized the importance of a robust supply chain ecosystem in delivering quality and innovative food experiences to consumers [1] Group 2 - Fujian Shengnong Development Co., Ltd. highlighted its collaboration with Yum China to enhance the poultry supply chain through standardization, technology sharing, and data interconnectivity [2] - Charoen Pokphand Group's Vice Chairman noted that product innovation demands from the restaurant sector drive continuous upgrades in supply chain capabilities [2] - Xuechuan Agricultural Group reported improvements in quality through collaboration with Yum China, contributing to local farmers' income while promoting sustainable practices [2] Group 3 - Yum China signed a procurement cooperation agreement with Guolian Aquatic Products to develop innovative products that will enhance the application of local aquatic specialties, benefiting local fish farmers [3]