Group 1: Engineering Machinery Industry - In December 2025, sales of various excavators reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales of 10,331 units (up 10.9%) and exports of 12,764 units (up 26.9%) [4] - Sales of various loaders in December 2025 totaled 12,236 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30%, with domestic sales of 5,291 units (up 17.6%) and exports of 6,945 units (up 41.5%) [4] - For the entire year of 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, marking a 17% increase year-on-year, while 116,739 units were exported (up 16.1%). Additionally, 128,067 loaders were sold, representing an 18.4% increase, with exports of 61,737 units (up 14.6%) [4] Group 2: Wind Power Industry - The wind turbine industry is expected to enter an upward profitability cycle starting in 2026, driven by significant domestic sales and improving profit margins [6] - The total delivery volume for wind turbines in 2026 is projected to exceed 160 GW, with domestic tenders accounting for approximately 150 GW and overseas orders nearing 40 GW [6] - Major manufacturers are expected to increase wind turbine prices by over 10%, leading to an anticipated profit margin improvement of more than 5% [6] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - In 2025, over 282 investment projects across the entire lithium battery industry chain were publicly announced, with a total investment exceeding 820 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 74% [7] - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026, with high-quality production capacity likely to experience a supply shortage [7] - The market for gallium arsenide in aerospace applications is projected to reach 425 million USD by 2024, indicating significant growth potential in this segment [7] Group 4: Poultry Industry - The H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in France has significantly impacted the domestic white feather chicken industry, leading to a supply shortage due to import restrictions [9] - The price of parent stock chicken has risen to 55-57 yuan per set in January 2026, driven by reduced supply from the upstream breeding segment [9] - The overall reduction in chicken supply is expected to drive up prices for live chickens and chicken products, benefiting integrated enterprises that can better manage cost fluctuations [9] Group 5: Pet Medical Services - Ruipai Pet has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for store expansion, talent development, and digital transformation [10] - The company has achieved profitability in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 15.54 million yuan, making it the only profitable large chain pet hospital in the country [11] - The pet medical sector is characterized by a low degree of chain integration, with Ruipai Pet and New Ruipeng emerging as the two leading players in the market [11]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 元旦前猪价反弹明显，牛肉进口配额保障政策落地 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 ...

行 农林牧渔 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《肥猪供给偏紧年前猪价上行，宠物 食品出口环比改善 —行业周报》- 2025.12.28 《年前猪价存在供需双重支撑，蛋鸡 存栏高位淘鸡延续 —行业周报》- 2025.12.21 《腌腊渐入旺季支撑猪价上行，犊牛 价格上行彰显牛周期景气—行业周 报》-2025.12.14 10 牛肉进口"国别配额及配额外加征关税"落地，利 多国内牛价 ——行业周报 chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 周观察：牛肉进口"国别配额及配额外加征关税"落地，利多国内牛价 供需双驱驱动年前猪价中枢上移，据涌益咨询，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全国 生猪均价 12.78 元/公斤，周环比+1.20 元/公斤，同比-3.01 元/公斤。截至 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The swine breeding industry is currently facing low prices and losses, but policy adjustments are accelerating capacity reduction, with expectations for a price rebound in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing oversupply, with a cautious outlook for 2026 prices due to a significant decline in breeding stock updates [1][7] - The yellow feather chicken industry is expected to have flat profitability in 2026, with high breeding stock levels [1][8] - The global pet food market is steadily growing, with significant contributions from Chinese brands through premiumization and branding strategies [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, indicating relatively low production capacity but improved efficiency [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission have initiated multiple discussions to implement production capacity control policies, with an expected elimination of 1 million breeding sows by January 2026 [2] - Despite a potential increase in the overall output of listed pig companies in 2026, this will not hinder the emergence of a new cycle due to limited growth in output [6] - Major companies like Muyuan and Dekang have successfully controlled costs, with Muyuan achieving a cost of 11.3 yuan/kg and Dekang at 11.9 yuan/kg [4] Company-Specific Developments - TianKang Bio's acquisition of 51% of Jiangdu Livestock is expected to significantly enhance its output and competitiveness, with production costs potentially dropping to 11.5 yuan or lower [5] - The average ROE for Muyuan is 37.5% since 2018, while Dekang's is 12.3%, indicating strong long-term profitability and capital return [4] Market Dynamics - The overall output of pigs is expected to increase in 2026, but the growth will be limited due to ongoing policy adjustments [6] - The white feather chicken market is projected to see a cautious price outlook for 2026, with a significant drop in breeding stock updates [7] - The yellow feather chicken industry is likely to experience similar profitability challenges as in the current year, with potential losses in several quarters [8] Pet Food Market Trends - The global pet food market is projected to reach $207.4 billion in retail sales by 2024, with significant growth rates across various segments [9] - Chinese brands are gaining market share, with companies like MaiFuDi and GuaiBao showing substantial growth in e-commerce sales [10][11] - GuaiBao's market share is approaching 10%, and it is expected to become one of the top two domestic brands [12] Challenges in the Beef Industry - The beef industry faces challenges such as long breeding cycles and difficulties in replenishment, with a notable decline in the number of breeding cows and calves [14] - The price of beef has seen a significant drop since 2023, but a potential increase in prices is anticipated due to reduced production capacity and government investigations into beef imports [14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the swine breeding, poultry, and pet food industries, as well as the challenges faced by the beef sector, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investment considerations.

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，展望2026年，农林牧渔板块投资机会或主要聚焦于周期与成 长两个维度：1)周期。生猪反内卷&行业亏损双管齐下，母猪产能重启去化，预计26H2猪价或逐步回 暖。祖代鸡引种同比下滑，看好种禽端景气。2)成长。国内龙头饲企强者恒强，有望将国内成熟的竞争 范式复制到海外市场，打开成长空间。生物育种产业化积极推进，具备核心品种优势的头部种企市占率 有望迎来加速提升。 招商证券主要观点如下： 禽养殖：白鸡种禽端景气可期，2026年黄鸡或有较好盈利 1)白羽鸡：受海外引种大幅下滑及种鸡性能下降影响，预计2026年优质父母代鸡苗供给偏紧，后续也将 影响商品代鸡苗的供给。看好种禽端景气。2)黄羽鸡：当前父母代种鸡存栏已降至历史偏低位水平，再 加之2025年行业亏损半年以上，供给收缩为后续鸡价上涨奠定基础。黄鸡养殖成本回落至低位，鸡价回 暖后有望大幅释放盈利弹性。 种业：玉米种业持续去库存，重视粮食安全 在全球极端气候频发、国际贸易摩擦不断、农产品供需存在区域及结构上不平衡背景下，国家粮食安全 战略上升到前所未有的高度，看好种植端及种业景气。1)水稻种业：2025年国内杂交水稻种子供应充 ...

| 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2969.78 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2367.56 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 近期研究报告 发布时间：2025-12-23 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 猪价低位窄幅震荡，供给压力仍大 ⚫ 行情回顾：小幅上涨 ⚫ 猪：价格低位窄幅震荡，供给压力仍大 上周猪价继续在 11 元/kg 区间窄幅波动，全周均价 11.25 元/公 斤，较前一周小涨 2.05%。寒潮、腌腊等支撑猪价；但供应端压力暂 难缓解。半年前的仔猪供应增加，意味当前生猪出栏将继续增加。 供给压力仍大，产能去化还将持续。24 年 5 月至 25 年 4 月母猪 存栏增加，对应着 25 年 Q4 及 26 年 Q1 生猪供给继续增加。目前行业 已全面亏损，且猪价或尚未触底，亏损预期还在继续强化。另 10 月 农业部能繁母猪存栏虽超预期下降，但距离 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [9]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average pig price of 11.58 yuan/kg, indicating ongoing losses across the sector [22][23]. - Poultry farming is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the price cycle, with white feather chicken prices at 7.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery in profits [29]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 26.68 yuan/kg [36]. - The planting industry is witnessing a tightening supply-demand situation, with corn prices rising to 2244.29 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases [41][42]. - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [55]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 130.18 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry prompting a reduction in production capacity [23][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term, but a potential recovery in the medium to long term due to improved profit margins for leading companies [23][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved demand and reduced supply [29]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [29]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is poised for price increases, supported by a seasonal demand surge and reduced supply from imports [36]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.02 yuan/kg, indicating a potential for recovery in the dairy sector [39]. 4. Planting Industry - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2244.29 yuan/ton, reflecting a tightening supply situation [41]. - The report highlights the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather [42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are trending upwards, particularly for shrimp and fish [55][60].

来源：@消费者报道微博 #鸡胸肉每吨价格累计涨超500元#【#白羽鸡价格逼近年内最高#，还能愉快吃鸡吗？】12月19日消息， 山东地区白羽肉鸡毛鸡报价再涨5分钱，冲到3.65元/斤，创四季度新高，实际成交价更是达到3.70元/ 斤，距离3.72元/斤的年内最高价仅一步之遥。作为快餐界的"隐形主角"——肯德基、麦当劳的炸鸡汉 堡，还有烧烤店的爆款鸡翅、网红鸡米花，原料基本都是白羽鸡。健身党爱的低脂鸡胸肉、超市里的冷 冻鸡翅根、家庭聚餐的预制菜，也大多离不开它，每秒就有200多只白羽鸡被端上国人餐桌。有业内人 士表示，现在不光鸡源变少，不少鸡还减重20%，大规格毛鸡一鸡难求，部分屠宰场都要透支未来4~5 天的货源。连锁反应之下，近几天鸡胸肉价格已累计涨超500元/吨，后续烧烤、快餐、预制菜等相关产 品可能都要跟着调价。@时代财经 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [2][13]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the agricultural index underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming industry is facing a downward price trend, with the average pig price at 11.48 yuan/kg, indicating a continued loss across the sector [21][22]. - Poultry farming shows signs of stabilization, with white feather chicken prices at 7.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand [28][31]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices at 26.68 yuan/kg [33]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply conditions, with corn prices rising to 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases if crop yields decline [37][38]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [51][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.63 kg, with prices expected to continue declining due to excess supply and ongoing losses in the industry [22][21]. - The report suggests focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [22][24]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is under pressure, but yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand and reduced supply [28][31]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve if consumer demand recovers [28][31]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is anticipated to rise as it enters the peak consumption season, with live cattle prices showing a year-on-year increase [33]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in stock, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in the coming year [33]. 4. Planting Chain - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [37][38]. - The planting sector is expected to improve if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather conditions [37][38]. 5. Feed & Aquatic Products - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends [51][55]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in the feed and aquatic sectors for investment opportunities [51][55].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].