Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The agricultural sector has significantly underperformed the market, with the agricultural index declining by 1.97% last week, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The pig farming sector is facing downward price pressure, with the average price of live pigs at 12.28 CNY/kg as of September 28, down 0.41 CNY/kg from the previous week [6][18] - The "anti-involution" policies have been reinforced, which are expected to benefit pig prices in the coming year, with a potential upward trend anticipated in the second half of 2026 [7][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector continues to decline, with the agricultural index down 1.97%, while the broader market indices, such as the CSI 300, increased by 1.07% [14] - All sub-sectors within agriculture experienced declines, with the planting sector seeing the largest adjustments [17] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pig Farming - Prices continue to decline, with significant supply pressure expected in the second half of 2025 due to increased production capacity since May 2024 [6][18] - The average loss for self-bred pigs has increased to approximately 74 CNY per head, while the loss for purchased piglets is around 237 CNY per head [19] - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, indicating a potential for accelerated capacity reduction in the future [20] Broiler Chicken - The price of broiler chicken chicks remains stable at 3.5 CNY per chick, while the price of broiler chickens is 3.37 CNY per jin, leading to a loss of 2.2 CNY per chick [8][29] - The update of grandparent stock has significantly decreased, with a reduction of 17.66% compared to the same period last year [29] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted to 5855 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [33] - The price of imported soybeans has decreased, with Brazilian soybeans at 3941 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4502 CNY/ton, both showing a decline of around 1% [33] - Corn prices have slightly decreased to 2323 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton from the previous week [33]

网络上，有三个传说：没有一只鸭，能活着走出南京；没有一只兔子，能活着蹦出四川；没有一只羊，能活着离开新疆…… 如果非要加上第四个，那么，肯定非下面这句莫属了： 没有一只鸡，能端着架子，走出沈阳。 沈阳人到底有多爱吃鸡架呢？ 1978年，考古学家们在沈阳新乐遗址（原始社会母系氏族公社时期）出土一件极为罕见的木雕艺术品——木雕鸟。 沈阳太阳鸟雕塑 不过，沈阳人给这个雕塑取了个更接地气的名字：烤鸡架。 因为，鸡架是沈阳人最喜爱的美食。 沈阳人到底有多爱吃鸡架呢？ 他们甚至搞了一个沈阳鸡架美食文化节。 "2024沈阳鸡架美食文化节"吸引众多游客前来品尝鸡架 在纪录片《宵夜江湖》中，沈阳被定义为"鸡架消耗量最大的城市"。 根据当地媒体报道，沈阳市每年的鸡架消费超过了3亿只，约占到全国一半的鸡架消费数量，是不折不扣的"鸡架之都"。 鸡架是真正属于沈阳人的"市井美食"，吃面喝啤酒，再配一份鸡架，才是会吃的沈阳人。 无论远行之前，还是归乡之后，吃上一份鸡架，是很多沈阳人的仪式感。 聚会可以吃，刷剧可以吃，看球可以吃……任何场合，任何氛围，鸡架永远是沈阳人专宠的"美食伴侣"。 爱吃鸡架的沈阳人，还建造了一座"鸡架博物馆"，不仅 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing profitability in pig farming while the pet food sector continues to grow [1][5] - The investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the sector [1] Pig Farming - Supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price in July-August 2025 at 14.63 CNY/kg, down from 14.96 CNY/kg in Q2 2025 [5] - The average profitability for self-breeding and purchased piglets in the industry has shifted to losses, with figures of 53.0 CNY/head for self-breeding and -106.7 CNY/head for purchased piglets as of September 19 [5] - The outflow of pigs from listed companies has shown a growth rate of 26.2% in Q2 2025 and 20.0% in July-August 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy guidance for capacity adjustment and weight reduction will likely elevate the price center of pigs in the future [5] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, and Tangrenshen [5] Animal Health - Demand for animal health products is on the rise, with significant year-on-year growth in various vaccines, such as a 30% increase for swine fever vaccines in July-August 2025 [5] - Companies like Keqian Biological and Ruipu Biological are highlighted for their strong internal growth potential due to new product launches [5] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens has rebounded due to seasonal demand and tighter supply, with an average price of 6.92 CNY/kg as of September 19, 2025 [5] - The report notes a 17.66% year-on-year decrease in the number of breeding chickens updated in the first eight months of 2025, indicating potential long-term benefits for the white feather chicken industry [5] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [5] Pet Food Sector - Domestic sales of pet food are driven by consumption upgrades and domestic substitution, with a reported growth rate of 11% across major e-commerce platforms from January to August 2025 [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new products and the strengthening of brand power among leading companies [5] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [5]

Core Viewpoint - The poultry industry is experiencing a recovery in chicken prices, particularly for white-feathered and yellow-feathered chickens, driven by supply adjustments and improved profitability for farmers [1][2][3]. Group 1: White-feathered Chicken - In August, the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.29 yuan per chick, down 4% year-on-year but up 133% month-on-month; the average price of meat chickens was 7.17 yuan per kilogram, down 6% year-on-year but up 9.9% month-on-month [1]. - The reduction in chicken supply in August, along with distributors actively stocking up for the school season, has provided strong support for chicken prices, leading to significant improvements in farmer profitability [1]. - The overseas breeding volume has significantly decreased since the beginning of the year, and it is expected that the supply of parent meat chicken seedlings will be tight in the second half of 2025, which will also affect the supply of commercial meat chicken seedlings in 2026 [1][3]. Group 2: Yellow-feathered Chicken - In August, the average price of fast-growing chickens was 5.11 yuan per pound, down 3.3% year-on-year but up 30% month-on-month; the average price of snow mountain grass chickens was 8.51 yuan per pound, down 3% year-on-year but up 32% month-on-month [2]. - The supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains relatively abundant, but most farming entities have reported losses by mid-year, leading to expectations of accelerated elimination of outdated production capacity [2]. - As supply and demand conditions improve, yellow chicken prices have rebounded, and high-quality production capacity has turned profitable [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The demand for quality parent chicken seedlings is expected to remain strong in 2025, despite an increase in imports of grandparent breeding chickens in 2024 [3]. - The current inventory of parent breeding chickens is at a historically low level, and the ongoing industry losses have set the stage for future price increases [3]. - Long-term prospects for the ice-fresh yellow-feathered chicken market remain promising due to changing consumer habits, the implementation of sales bans, and economic recovery boosting consumption [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The upward trend in chicken prices is driven by import disruptions and improved demand, while high egg-laying hen capacity may limit the upward potential of egg prices [4][14] - The white feather chicken price increased in August due to supply constraints and demand from back-to-school stocking, with an average selling price of 7.17 yuan/kg, up 0.64 yuan/kg month-on-month [4][14] - The yellow feather chicken price also rose in August, reaching an average of 12.39 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 19.57%, supported by seasonal demand [5][27] - Egg supply pressure remains high, with the average wholesale price of eggs at 6.22 yuan/kg, up 2.30% month-on-month, but the capacity of laying hens continues to limit price increases [36] Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - In August, the average selling price was 7.17 yuan/kg, with a profit of 0.86 yuan/chicken, marking a recovery from losses [4][14] - The total stock of white feather breeding chickens was 2.1421 million sets, up 2.6% month-on-month [15] Yellow Feather Chicken - The average selling price in August was 12.39 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 19.57% [5][27] - The total stock of yellow feather breeding chickens was 2.8539 million sets, up 2.11% month-on-month [27] Egg Production - The average price of egg chicks was 3.00 yuan/chick, down 22.08% month-on-month, while the total stock of laying hens reached 1.317 billion, up 1.93% month-on-month [36] Company Performance - Yisheng shares sold 57.9185 million chicks in August, with a selling price of 3.69 yuan/chick, up 1.93% month-on-month [39] - Wen's shares sold 117 million chickens in August, with a revenue of 2.956 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 27.63% [58] - Lihua shares sold 52.5549 million chickens, with a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan, also showing a month-on-month increase of 27.66% [59]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Maintain Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has rapidly dropped below 13 yuan/kg, leading to a decrease in self-breeding and self-raising profitability to -24.44 yuan/head, a reduction of 41.29 yuan/head from the previous week. The high supply pressure is expected to continue to weigh on pig prices. The average weight of pigs has increased to 128.45 kg, up 0.5% from the low point in early August. The feed data shows a month-on-month increase in fattening feed prices of 5.6%, 6.6%, and 5.8% from June to August. The government is expected to implement policies to stabilize production and limit breeding in response to the price pressure [1][13][14] - The average selling price of lean meat pigs nationwide is 12.82 yuan/kg, down 3% from last week, while the average wholesale price of pork is 19.48 yuan/kg, down 2% [2][15] - The poultry sector shows mixed results, with the price of white feather chickens at 6.88 yuan/kg, down 2%, while chicken product prices remain stable at 8.65 yuan/kg. The price of meat chicken seedlings is 3.15 yuan each, down 3.1% [14][31] - The planting and agricultural products sector is expected to benefit from the commercialization of genetically modified varieties, with potential growth opportunities for industry companies [14] - The livestock support sector is experiencing increased price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [14] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average selling price of lean meat pigs is 12.82 yuan/kg, down 3% from last week [15] - Self-breeding and self-raising profitability is -24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from the previous week [19] - The average weight of pigs has increased to 128.45 kg, showing a recovery trend [13] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, down 2% [31] - The price of meat chicken seedlings is 3.15 yuan each, down 3.1% [29] - The average price of chicken products remains stable at 8.65 yuan/kg [31] Agricultural Products - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential for industry companies [14] Livestock Support - Leading feed companies are expected to gain market share over smaller competitors due to their advantages [14]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector, highlighting the expected decline in production capacity due to policy guidance amid strong supply and weak demand conditions [1][2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are noted for potential recovery, with the beef super cycle possibly starting, and the report suggests focusing on companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model [3][15] - The pet sector is experiencing rapid growth of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating a robust pet economy [3][16] - The poultry sector is advised to focus on the white chicken breeding gap and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens, with recommendations for specific companies [4][17][19] - The planting sector is encouraged to wait for a turnaround in conventional seed industries while emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [5][21] - The feed sector highlights Hai Da Group as a key recommendation due to its market share increase and consistent performance [6][23] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Current pig prices are under pressure, with an average price of 13.50 CNY/kg, down 2.67% from the previous week, and the industry is facing a narrowing profit margin [1][13] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with specific recommendations for leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][14] Beef Sector - The report indicates that the dairy cow capacity reduction is nearing its end, with potential price recovery for raw milk and beef [3][15] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3][15] Pet Sector - The domestic pet economy is thriving, with significant growth in sales and exports of pet food [3][16] - Key recommendations include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [3][16] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the need to focus on the breeding gap for white chickens and the improving demand for yellow chickens [4][17][19] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Stock [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of improving yield through advanced breeding techniques and the integration of agricultural practices [5][21] - Key recommendations include Longping High-tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [5][21][22] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery and increased market share [6][23]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture sector, particularly in livestock and planting industries, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][24]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.81% [2]. - The report highlights the stabilization of the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of improved profitability in the medium term due to controlled production capacity [24]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices but is expected to recover as consumer demand improves [39]. - The beef and dairy sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices and a potential new cycle in beef production [40]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with government support and potential improvements in crop yields due to external factors [46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture index closed at 3103.24 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.81%, outperforming major indices [2][17]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week, with a slight increase in average weight at 128.32 kg/head [23][24]. - The report anticipates a short-term price stabilization but warns of potential downward pressure due to supply increases [24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.02 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 2.09% week-on-week [39]. - The report notes that the poultry sector is under pressure but expects recovery with improved consumer demand [39]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.29 yuan/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the beef market [40]. - The report suggests that the dairy sector may see price stabilization in the second half of 2025 [40]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2302.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while wheat prices are supported by government policies [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if crop yields are affected by external factors [46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported in the past week [64]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with various fish prices remaining stable or slightly increasing [64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [3] Core Views - The price of enoki mushrooms has strengthened, with the national average price reaching 5.99 CNY/kg in August 2025, up 1.01% year-on-year and 6.02% month-on-month. After a decline in the first half of the year, production cuts by leading companies are expected to reverse the industry's difficulties and lead to price recovery [10][11] - In pig farming, the national price for lean pigs is 13.68 CNY/kg, up 1% from the previous week. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with low-cost and high-growth potential, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [11][13] - In poultry farming, the average price for white feather chickens is 7.17 CNY/kg, down 2.2% from the previous week. The report highlights the potential for price recovery in the future [11][27] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies [11] - The report notes that fluctuations in agricultural product prices are increasing, and leading feed companies may replace smaller ones due to their advantages in procurement and scale [11] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The national price for lean pigs is 13.68 CNY/kg, up 1% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 19.84 CNY/kg, down 0.5% [13][20] - The average price for meat chicken chicks is 3.4 CNY each, down 5.8% from last week [24][27] - The average price for white feather chicken is 7.17 CNY/kg, down 2.2% from last week [27][28] Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.5 percentage points, with a decline of 1.32% [7][8] - The enoki mushroom industry is expected to recover due to production cuts and seasonal demand increases [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with a focus on improving profitability driven by declining feed costs and increased production scale [1][11]. Core Insights - The overall agricultural sector has seen a revenue increase of 6.12% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 614.8 billion yuan, with a significant profit increase of 198% to 27 billion yuan, primarily due to the recovery of the pig farming sector [1][11]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a seasonal price decline, yet remains profitable due to reduced feed costs and increased production efficiency [2][28]. - The poultry farming sector has shown mixed performance, with revenue slightly declining by 0.29% in H1 2025, but net profit improved by 6.43% due to lower costs [3][21]. - The seed sector reported a revenue increase of 5.05% in H1 2025, although net profit turned negative, indicating challenges in seed sales due to falling grain prices [4][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Feed prices have been on a downward trend, improving overall farming costs. Pig prices have remained stable year-on-year, while poultry prices have been low but profitable across the supply chain. The agricultural product supply-demand balance is easing, with major product prices at low levels [1][11]. - In H1 2025, the sector achieved revenues of 614.8 billion yuan and net profits of 27 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the pig farming sector [1][11]. Pig Farming - In 2024, pig supply is expected to decrease, with prices showing seasonal trends. Despite a decline in prices post-October, the sector remains profitable. In Q1 2025, the average price was 15.01 yuan/kg, up 3.90% year-on-year, while Q2 saw a price drop to 14.56 yuan/kg, down 10.94% year-on-year [2][28]. - The pig farming sector generated revenues of 248.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.67% increase, with net profits soaring by 1551% to 17.1 billion yuan [2][28]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector's revenue in H1 2025 was 33.7 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.29%, but net profit increased by 6.43% to 1 billion yuan due to lower costs [3][21]. - The white feather chicken segment remains stable despite low prices, while the yellow feather chicken segment is recovering from previous losses [3][21]. Seed Sector - The seed sector reported revenues of 8.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.05% increase, but net profit turned negative, indicating challenges in the market [4][21].