Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lemon prices in China, nearly doubling due to extreme weather conditions, has raised concerns about the stability of agricultural product prices amid climate challenges [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 7, 2025, the average wholesale price of lemons in China reached 14.55 yuan per kilogram, up from 7.96 yuan per kilogram a year earlier, indicating a nearly 83% increase [1]. - Watermelon prices have also increased by approximately 20% due to reduced production from extreme heat and flooding in key growing regions [5]. Production Impact - Over 70% of China's lemons are produced in Sichuan's Anyue, which experienced severe high temperatures and drought last year, leading to a significant drop in lemon yield [2]. - The quality of lemons has declined due to heat stress, resulting in lower rates of premium fruit [2]. Supply Chain Resilience - The overall prices of vegetables and grains have remained stable due to the dispersed production areas and the resilience of the supply chain, allowing for cross-regional adjustments [3]. - The short growth cycle of vegetables enables quicker recovery from price spikes compared to lemons, which have a longer growth cycle [3]. Consumer Demand Factors - The demand for lemons in tea and seasoning markets is inelastic, making them less substitutable compared to other vegetables, which can be easily replaced [4]. - Export factors may also contribute to the rising lemon prices, as domestic supply has not increased while international production has decreased [4]. Future Price Volatility - Other agricultural products, such as leafy vegetables and citrus fruits, may experience price fluctuations due to ongoing extreme weather conditions [5][6]. - The potential for price increases in crops like pepper and citrus fruits is noted, particularly if dry conditions persist into the fall [5]. Recommendations for Supply Stability - Experts suggest optimizing production area layouts, expanding cold chain logistics, and implementing price insurance to enhance supply chain resilience [7][8]. - The establishment of backup production areas and a national agricultural supply-demand platform is recommended to monitor prices and inventory effectively [8]. - Continuous investment in high-standard farmland and disaster insurance systems is crucial for protecting farmers' interests and ensuring food security [8].