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玉米淀粉日报-20251124
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 11:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn price has declined, and the yield per unit will continue to be adjusted downward, but the production remains high, with the US corn expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2,135 yuan. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 1.109 million tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week, a monthly decline of 1.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] - The trading strategy suggests that the US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Short - sell the 01 corn futures contract on rebounds, and wait for the 05 corn futures contract. Try to narrow the price difference between the 01 corn and starch futures contracts when it is high. [7][8] - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 futures contracts have increased, with price increases of 25, 12, 9, 23, 21, and 8 respectively, and price increase rates of 1.13%, 0.53%, 0.39%, 0.91%, 0.81%, and 0.30% respectively. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, and CS2601 have decreased, with decreases of 2.88%, 2.61%, and 1.91% respectively, while the trading volumes of C2509, CS2605, and CS2509 have increased, with increases of 21.45%, 166.65%, and 137.37% respectively. The open interests of all contracts have increased, with increases ranging from 2.03% to 5.54%. [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in various regions have different degrees of increase, with the largest increase of 40 yuan in Nantong Port. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 288 to 117 yuan. The spot prices of starch in various regions are stable, and the basis of starch ranges from 81 to 301 yuan. [1] - **Price Differences**: Among the corn inter - delivery price differences, C01 - C05 is - 44 with a 13 - yuan increase, C05 - C09 is - 19 with a 3 - yuan increase, and C09 - C01 is 63 with a 16 - yuan decrease. Among the starch inter - delivery price differences, CS01 - CS05 is - 64 with a 2 - yuan increase, CS05 - CS09 is - 32 with a 13 - yuan increase, and CS09 - CS01 is 96 with a 15 - yuan decrease. Among the cross - variety price differences, CS09 - C09 is 348 with a 1 - yuan decrease, CS01 - C01 is 315 with a 2 - yuan decrease, and CS05 - C05 is 335 with a 9 - yuan increase. [1] Part 2: Market Outlook - **Corn**: The US corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. The closing prices of C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE have decreased by 1.0. [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract price difference. [12][14][19]