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广发期货《农产品》日报-20260402
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-02 03:14
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures, the crude palm oil futures may further decline to around 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures will first test the support at around 9,700 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline after breaking the 9,500 - yuan support [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil has a requirement for a stagflation callback. In China, after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand is expected to gradually increase, but with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the basis quote is expected to remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is under pressure at the 10,000 - yuan mark. The spot market traders are bearish on the far - month rapeseed oil basis, and the far - month basis quote has dropped by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 2.2 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are affected by energy prices. In the short term, raw sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In China, the domestic sugar market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and sugar prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile and weak pattern [3]. 2.3 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.9 million tons, while consumption remains stable. In China, the upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. Although the industrial fundamentals are sound, the follow - up needs to focus on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [5]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the off - season. The prices in the main sales areas are loose, and the consumption is weak. The futures prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7]. 2.5 Apples - The inventory structure of apple main producing areas is differentiated. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. 2.6 Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable and weak, and that in North China has rebounded locally. The marginal demand is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases [11][13]. 2.7 Meal - The USDA's report shows an increase in US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean meal market is pessimistic, and the future supply pressure will continue to increase [14]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices continue to decline. The capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline under capacity pressure [16]. 2.9 Eggs - The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a slight decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,000 yuan, down 100 yuan from March 31, a decrease of 1.11%; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,624 yuan, down 44 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan, up 130 yuan, an increase of 1.32%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,780 yuan, down 86 yuan, a decrease of 0.87%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,122 yuan, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.56%; the futures price of OI2605 was 9,884 yuan, down 164 yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2605 was 476 yuan, up 144 yuan, an increase of 43.37%; the basis of P2605 was 205 yuan, up 216 yuan, an increase of 1963.64%; the basis of OI2605 was 402 yuan, up 4 yuan, an increase of 1.01%. The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 40 yuan, unchanged; the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 44 yuan, down 22 yuan, a decrease of 100.00%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 17 yuan, down 16 yuan, a decrease of 17.20% [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On April 1, the futures price of SR2605 was 5,356 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a decrease of 0.78%; the futures price of SR2609 was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a decrease of 0.94%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, a decrease of 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,290 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, a decrease of 0.09% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 456,100 tons, a decrease of 4.69%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 1.3016 million tons, a decrease of 27.39%. The national sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 11.60 percentage points, a decrease of 23.72% [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CF2605 was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.91%; the futures price of CF2609 was 15,375 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.90%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,797 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan, a decrease of 0.31% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0 tons, down 547,700 tons, a decrease of 100.0%; the industrial inventory was 102,400 tons, up 13,000 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 39,100 tons, a decrease of 19.0% [5]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CJ2605 was 8,635 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan, a decrease of 1.31%; the futures price of CJ2607 was 8,835 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 1.01%; the futures price of CJ2609 was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%. The Cangzhou special - grade spot price was 9,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 1, the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,457, equivalent to 22,285 tons of red dates [7]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of AP2605 was 9,860 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, an increase of 0.35%; the futures price of AP2610 was 8,497 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan, a decrease of 2.81%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan, a decrease of 6.35% [9]. - **Inventory and Market**: The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 266,400 tons, a decrease of 5.69%. The trading in the main producing areas was average, and the market sentiment has weakened [9]. 3.6 Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of C2605 was 2,350 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, a decrease of 0.04%; the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, an increase of 0.42%. The basis was 35 yuan, up 11 yuan, an increase of 45.83% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price of wet corn is stable and weak; in North China, the price has rebounded locally. The demand of downstream enterprises is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price [11][13]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decrease of 1.85%; the futures price of M2605 was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a decrease of 0.79%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan, a decrease of 1.48% [14]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 87 yuan, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 19.18%; the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 71 yuan, down 8 yuan, a decrease of 12.70%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot was 2.87, up 0.084, an increase of 3.02%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 3.00, up 0.026, an increase of 0.88% [14]. 3.8 Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of LH2605 was 9,610 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.64%; the futures price of LH2607 was 10,605 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan, a decrease of 1.16%. The Henan spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [16]. - **Industry Situation**: Pig prices continue to decline, the capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be affected by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a risk of further decline [16]. 3.9 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of JD2605 was 3,440 yuan/500KG, down 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.73%; the futures price of JD2606 was 3,220 yuan/500KG, down 4 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The egg - producing area price was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan, a decrease of 1.27% [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to be volatile at a low level [19].
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260401
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 06:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The long - term bullish factors for soybean oil continue, but the amplitude has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions to the 09 contract. The support level for the 09 contract is 8500 - 8550 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the short - term, rapeseed oil may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The 05 contract's upper resistance range is 10000 - 10100, and the lower support range is 9450 - 9460 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Considering the positive factors such as biodiesel policies, geopolitical tensions, and strong exports of Malaysian palm oil, palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, mainly adopting the strategy of going long on dips. The upper resistance range for the main contract is 10200 - 10220, and the lower support range is 9400 - 9410 [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The cost - side support for the far - month contracts continues. It is recommended to arrange long positions in the 09 contracts of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. The support level for the 09 contract of soybean meal is 2940 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3070 - 3080 yuan/ton. The lower support for the 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3700 - 3720, and the upper resistance is 3850 - 3860 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the short - term, the price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and bottom out. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The RM contract's lower support level is 2280 - 2300, and the upper resistance level is 2500 - 2510 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The short - term futures prices may adjust slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or look for opportunities to go long on dips. The support range for the 2605 contract of corn is 2250 - 2280, and the resistance range is 2450 - 2480. The support range for the 05 contract of corn starch is 2670 - 2680, and the resistance range is 2850 - 2860 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The upward driving force for soybean No. 1 is expected to be insufficient. It is not advisable to chase long positions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 4740 - 4760 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4400 - 4450 yuan/ton [6]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change fundamentally. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract lightly below 11000 points after the release of spot pressure. For options, a covered call strategy combination can be held [7]. - **Eggs**: Cautious investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can go long on the 05 contract below 3400 points. It is not advisable to chase short positions in the near - month contracts at historical low price ranges [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 05 contract is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. Soybean No. 2 05 contract is in a wide - range adjustment. It is also recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Oils**: The 09 contract of soybean oil, 05 contract of rapeseed oil, and 05 contract of palm oil are all in a wide - range or oscillatory pattern. The 09 contract of soybean oil can be considered for long positions after stabilization, the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is recommended to wait and see, and the 05 contract of palm oil can be bought on dips [10]. - **Proteins**: The 09 contract of soybean meal and 05 contract of rapeseed meal are in an oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to go long after stabilization [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 05 contracts of corn and corn starch are in an oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Livestock**: The 05 contracts of hogs and eggs are in an oscillatory bottom - seeking pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spreads of soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and rapeseed oil - palm oil, it is also recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of corn - corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Livestock**: For the 5 - 7 spread of hogs, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions. For the 5 - 7 spread of eggs, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as their corresponding operating rates [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and import - duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the inventory of corn starch enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including the spot prices, price changes, and key weekly data such as inventory, production rate, and profit of hogs and eggs [19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes a series of charts related to the livestock (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and trading volume of various commodities [23][31][55]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [93]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It presents the warehouse receipt situations of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [101].
全品种价差日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate
玉米淀粉日报-20260331
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 15:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn is weakening, and crude oil is expected to oscillate strongly. It is predicted that the bottom of US corn will oscillate strongly. The supply of North China corn is decreasing, and the spot corn still has room to decline in the short term. The corn in Northeast China is weak, and the purchase price at the northern port is weak today. The auction transaction price of North China wheat has declined, and the price difference between Northeast corn and North China corn has narrowed. Recently, the volume of wheat auctions has increased, and it is expected that the spot price of Northeast corn still has room to decline. The 05 corn contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [9]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of Shandong corn has declined, and the spot price of starch in Shandong and Northeast China is also weak. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 05 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open interest change percentages are provided. For example, C2601 closed at 2365, up 3 with a 0.13% increase, trading volume was 4,068 with a - 38.63% decrease, and open interest was 21,860 with a 0.16% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are given for different locations such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, etc., along with price changes and basis. Starch spot prices are provided for different manufacturers like Longfeng, COFCO, etc., with price changes and basis. For example, the corn price in Qinggang is 2225 with no change, and the basis is - 155 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads (e.g., C01 - C05, C05 - C09), starch inter - delivery spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01) are presented, along with their price changes [2]. 2. Market Judgment - **Corn**: The global corn supply pressure is weakening, and US corn is expected to oscillate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port's flat - hatch price is weak, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed. The wheat price is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, reducing the cost - effectiveness of corn. The domestic aquaculture demand is average, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The 05 corn contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the auction policy [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of Shandong corn has declined, and the spot price of starch in Shandong and Northeast China is weak. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 05 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 05 US corn has support at 450 cents per bushel. It is recommended to wait and see for the 05 corn contract [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Short the spread between the 07 corn and starch contracts when the price is high [11]. 4. Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [12]. 5. Related Attached Figures - The report includes figures such as the northern port's corn flat - hatch price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, which provide historical data and trends for reference [16][17][22].
资金流向及重点席位持仓变化日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 07:07
Report Information - Report title: Funds Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report [1] - Report date: March 31, 2026 [1] - Data date: March 30, 2026 [2] Core Content Funds Flow - The report presents the percentage changes in funds inflow and outflow of various varieties, but specific varieties are not clearly identified in the provided content [2] Key Seats' Position Changes - **Morgan Chase**: Shows the net position and daily position changes (increase or decrease) for multiple products such as crude oil, lottery 008 futures, iron ore, etc. The net position and daily position change percentages range from -4% to 12% [2] - **Qiankun Futures**: Displays the net position and daily position changes for products like stainless steel, etc. The net position and daily position change percentages range from -8% to 14% [2] - **UBS Futures**: Presents the net position and daily position changes for products including LPG, etc. The net position and daily position change percentages range from -5% to 4% [2] - **CITIC Futures**: The net position and daily position change percentages range from -15% to 15% [4] - **Guotai Junan**: The net position and daily position change percentages range from -20% to 15% [4]
下游刚需补库,豆粕维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 05:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bullish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, the current macro - level influence is weakening, but the pressure of new - season Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports is increasing, and the premium has declined, leading to a short - term weak and volatile bean meal price. However, the situation of South American soybeans has been fully reflected, and the pricing logic will return to the cost of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to future US soybean export and policy changes [2] - For the corn market, deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to encourage purchases, and the arrival of corn has increased significantly, with inventory starting to rise but still below the historical average. Feed enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced corn and prefer to use substitutes like wheat. The wheat auction volume has increased to 800,000 tons per week, with good trading and premiums. The overall corn supply is still tight, and with the support of relatively high wheat prices, the corn market is expected to remain strong [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2,937 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean meal was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of March 27, 2026, the harvesting progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 72.99%, lower than 81.31% of the same period last year and close to the five - year average of 73.95% [1] Market Analysis - The short - term price of bean meal is weakly volatile due to the increasing pressure of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports and the decline in premiums. In the future, it will return to the cost - based pricing logic of US soybeans [2] Strategy - Cautiously bullish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2,346 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day; the corn starch 2605 contract was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2,150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2,900 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Market Information: As of the week of March 25, the harvesting progress of the 2025/26 Argentine corn was 15.2%, higher than 13% a week ago. The second crop yield forecast report of South Africa in 2026 showed that the total commercial corn output was 16.51 million tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous forecast and a 1% decrease from 2025 [3] Market Analysis - Deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to encourage purchases, and the arrival of corn has increased, but inventory is still below the historical average. Feed enterprises prefer substitutes. The wheat auction volume has increased, and the corn market supply is tight, supported by high wheat prices [4][5] Strategy - Cautiously bullish [6]
全品种价差日报-20260330
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 09:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, historical quantiles, and basis rates of various commodities on March 30, 2026, covering multiple sectors such as metals, agriculture, energy, and finance. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 6012, down 0.97%; futures price is 5978, with a basis of -34 and a basis rate of -1.22% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 6500, futures price is 6580, and the basis is -80 [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3220, futures price is 3124, down 0.27%, with a basis of 96 and a historical quantile of 46.20% [1]. - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3299, with a basis of -9 and a historical quantile of 15.80% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 27, up 3.29%; futures price is 812, up 22.80%, with a basis of -27 and a historical quantile of 75.86% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1752, futures price is 1767, up 0.83%, with a basis of -15 and a historical quantile of 75.86% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1333, futures price is 1219, up 9.35%, with a basis of 114 and a historical quantile of 57.20% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2605)**: Spot price is 95930, futures price is 95320, with a basis of 610 and a historical quantile of 12.91% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2605)**: Spot price is 23935, futures price is 23810, with a basis of 125 and a historical quantile of 27.08% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2785, futures price is 2930, with a basis of -145 and a historical quantile of 14.09% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2605)**: Spot price is 23380, futures price is 23140, with a basis of 240 and a historical quantile of 10.00% [1]. - **Tin (SN2605)**: Spot price is 362460, futures price is 353400, with a basis of 9060 and a historical quantile of 1.66% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2605)**: Spot price is 137100, futures price is 136450, with a basis of 650 and a historical quantile of 22.29% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2605)**: Spot price is 14500, futures price is 14390, with a basis of 110 and a historical quantile of 49.14% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 168440, futures price is 158000, down 6.20%, with a basis of 10440 and a historical quantile of 2.64% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price is 9200, futures price is 8652, up 6.67%, with a basis of 548 and a historical quantile of 37.78% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2606)**: Spot price is 992.5, futures price is 998.66, with a basis of -6.16 and a historical quantile of -0.62% [1]. - **Silver (AG2606)**: Spot price is 17467, futures price is 17489, with a basis of -22 and a historical quantile of 51.00% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3160, futures price is 2937, up 7.59%, with a basis of 223 and a historical quantile of 64.60% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8940, futures price is 8688, up 2.90%, with a basis of 252 and a historical quantile of 53.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9670, futures price is 9768, down 1.00%, with a basis of -98 and a historical quantile of 1.90% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM2605)**: Spot price is 2330, futures price is 2315, with a basis of 15 and a historical quantile of 50.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 10380, futures price is 9877, up 5.09%, with a basis of 503 and a historical quantile of 91.30% [1]. - **Corn (C2605)**: Spot price is 2390, futures price is 2369, with a basis of 21 and a historical quantile of 44.50% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2605)**: Spot price is 2755, futures price is 2900, down 4.67%, with a basis of -145 and a historical quantile of 73.30% [1]. - **Live Hogs (H2605)**: Spot price is 9965, futures price is 9500, with a basis of 465 and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2605)**: Spot price is 3502, futures price is 3290, down 6.05%, with a basis of 212 and a historical quantile of 21.20% [1]. - **Cotton (CF2605)**: Spot price is 16600, futures price is 15395, up 7.83%, with a basis of 1205 and a historical quantile of 82.40% [1]. - **Sugar (SR2605)**: Spot price is 5464, futures price is 5480, up 0.29%, with a basis of -16 and a historical quantile of -1.68% [1]. - **Apples (AP2605)**: Spot price is 9967, futures price is 9800, with a basis of 167 and a historical quantile of 16.60% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ2605)**: Spot price is 8870, futures price is 7900, down 10.94%, with a basis of 970 and a historical quantile of 41.60% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX2605)**: Spot price is 10059.9, futures price is 9916, with a basis of 143.9 and a historical quantile of 71.40% [1]. - **PTA (TA2605)**: Spot price is 6876, futures price is 6760, down 1.69%, with a basis of 116 and a historical quantile of 14.40% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 5279, futures price is 5005, down 0.98%, with a basis of 274 and a historical quantile of 0.10% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF2606)**: Spot price is 8392, futures price is 8310, down 0.98%, with a basis of 82 and a historical quantile of 22.20% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2605)**: Spot price is 10800, futures price is 10624, with a basis of 176 and a historical quantile of 64.90% [1]. - **Methanol (MA2605)**: Spot price is 3360, futures price is 3296, up 1.94%, with a basis of 64 and a historical quantile of 69.40% [1]. - **Urea (UR2605)**: Spot price is 1900, futures price is 1877, up 1.23%, with a basis of 23 and a historical quantile of 24.70% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 8868, futures price is 8600, down 3.02%, with a basis of 268 and a historical quantile of 0.40% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 9313, futures price is 9100, up 1.20%, with a basis of 213 and a historical quantile of -2.29% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 5615, futures price is 5450, down 2.94%, with a basis of 165 and a historical quantile of 36.80% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SHEOS)**: Spot price is 2442, futures price is 2303.1, down 5.69%, with a basis of 138.9 and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1]. - **LPG (PG2605)**: Spot price is 6759, futures price is 7198, up 6.50%, with a basis of -439 and a historical quantile of 61.90% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2606)**: Spot price is 4532, futures price is 4330, up 12.60%, with a basis of 202 and a historical quantile of -4.46% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2605)**: Spot price is 18500, futures price is 17840, with a basis of 660 and a historical quantile of 92.60% [1]. - **Float Glass (FG2605)**: Spot price is 960, futures price is 879, down 8.44%, with a basis of 81 and a historical quantile of 49.36% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Spot price is 1229, futures price is 1209, down 1.65%, with a basis of 20 and a historical quantile of 46.84% [1]. - **Pure Benzene (BZ2605)**: Spot price is 8880, futures price is 8355, down 5.91%, with a basis of 525 and a historical quantile of -1.20% [1]. - **Propylene (PL2605)**: Spot price is 8320, futures price is 8315, up 1.21%, with a basis of 5 and a historical quantile of 92.00% [1]. - **Bottle Chips (PR2605)**: Spot price is 8421, futures price is 8320, up 1.21%, with a basis of 101 and a historical quantile of 92.00% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 16510, futures price is 16400, down 0.67%, with a basis of 110 and a historical quantile of 85.11% [1]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2606.CFE**: Spot price is 4502.5698, futures price is 4427.4, down 1.70%, with a basis of -75.1698 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1]. - **IH2606.CFE**: Spot price is 2837.3064, futures price is 2814.4, down 0.81%, with a basis of 22.9064 and a historical quantile of 5.70% [1]. - **IC2606.CFE**: Spot price is 7737.6144, futures price is 7559.2, down 2.36%, with a basis of 178.4144 and a historical quantile of 0.40% [1]. - **IM2606.CFE**: Spot price is 7746.3131, futures price is 7523.8, down 2.96%, with a basis of 222.5131 and a historical quantile of 0.04% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2606**: Spot price is 100.11, futures price is 97.62, up 0.08%, with a basis of 2.49 and a historical quantile of 44.40% [1]. - **TF2606**: Spot price is 105.98, futures price is 100.24, up 0.09%, with a basis of 5.74 and a historical quantile of 42.20% [1]. - **T2606**: Spot price is 108.23, futures price is 99.88, up 0.10%, with a basis of 8.35 and a historical quantile of 31.10% [1]. - **TL2606**: Spot price is 122.03, futures price is 111.18, up 0.46%, with a basis of 10.85 and a historical quantile of 67.50% [1].
玉米类市场周报:小麦替代优势显现,玉米期价高位震荡-20260327
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 09:52
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The international oil price is high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the freight and international corn prices. In the domestic market, the willingness of grain holders to sell has increased with the rising purchase price, but the risk of mildew has also risen due to high - temperature, leading to more high - moisture grain supply. The processing enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and the price increase is under pressure. The wheat substitution effect has strengthened, and the rumored rice auction in April may also have a negative impact on corn prices. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - Corn starch futures prices have risen and then fallen. The supply of raw material corn has increased, leading to a higher operating rate of corn starch enterprises and increased supply pressure. The inventory has also slightly increased. However, the starch spot market performs well supported by the good price of raw material corn. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - **Corn** - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week. The international situation boosts international corn prices, while in the domestic market, the supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - **Corn Starch** - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton from last week. The supply pressure has increased, but the spot market is supported by raw material prices. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - The corn futures May contract oscillated at a high level, with a total position of 1,124,900 lots, a decrease of 191,807 lots from last week. The corn starch futures May contract rose and then fell, with a total position of 254,131 lots (compared with 284,736 lots last week), a decrease of 30,605 lots [14]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures is - 142,948, compared with - 196,157 last week, and the net short position has decreased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures is - 21,269, compared with - 15,209 last week, and the net short position has increased [20]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 59,377 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 4,650 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active May contract of corn and the spot average price is + 76.55 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin is 2,900 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, with a decline this week. The basis between the May contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin is + 145 yuan/ton [31][35]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread** - The 5 - 7 spread of corn is - 18 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch is - 15 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period [42]. - **Futures Spread** - The spread between the May contract of starch and corn is 386 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch is 670 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread** - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of wheat is 2,590.56 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread is 138.01 yuan/ton. In the 12th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 819 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 23.4 tons, a decrease of 5.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 14.7 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 254.1 tons, an increase of 35.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume in the four northern ports is 63.5 tons, a decrease of 11.7 tons week - on - week [46]. - The overall progress of domestic corn sales is 81% as of March 26, 2026, an increase of 3% from March 19, 2026, and a decrease of 6% compared with the same period in 2025 [59]. - In February 2026, the total import volume of ordinary corn is 17.00 tons, the lowest this year, an increase of 9.00 tons (112.50%) compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 20.00 tons compared with the previous month [63]. - As of March 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises is 31.57 days, an increase of 1.30 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 4.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.01% [67]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory is 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million (0.5%) compared with the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows is 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million (2.9%) [71]. - As of March 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head [75]. - As of March 26, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin is 34 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan is - 399 yuan/ton, in Jilin is - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang is 81 yuan/ton [80]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of March 25, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions is 406.3 tons, an increase of 7.80% [84]. - From March 19 to March 25, 2026, the total corn processing volume in the country is 63.99 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons from last week; the weekly corn starch output is 33.36 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate is 60.98%, an increase of 2.18% from last week. As of March 25, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in the country is 121.7 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.16%, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.71% [88]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of March 27, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn is 10.63%, a decrease of 1.81% from 12.44% last week. The implied volatility has oscillated and declined this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].
基差统计表-20260327
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 09:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 General Information - The report is the Maike Futures Basis Statistics Table dated March 27, 2026, at 9:00 [2]. - The settlement price is used for non - ferrous metal futures, and the closing price is used for other futures. The basis rate is the main contract basis rate, calculated as (spot price - main contract price) / main contract price. The historical maximum and minimum values of the basis rate are calculated based on samples from January 1, 2015, to the present. Data sources include iFinD, Wind, and Steel Union Data. Quotes marked with * are weekly updated data, and quotes marked with ** have differences between the spot and the benchmark delivery product [3]. 3.2 Futures Data - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.27%, with a decrease of - 0.69% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 135, and the next - month basis is - 255. The spot price is 95325 [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.01%, with a decrease of - 0.63% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 175, and the next - month basis is - 240. The spot price is 23510 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.63%, with a decrease of - 0.46% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 110, and the next - month basis is - 145. The spot price is 22985 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 1.03%, with an increase of 0.06% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 155, and the next - month basis is - 170. The spot price is 16300 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is 0.08%, with a decrease of - 1.44% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 270, and the next - month basis is - 180. The spot price is 352800 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 1.72%, with a decrease of - 0.12% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 2360, and the next - month basis is 2790. The spot price is 139350 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 5.38%, with a decrease of - 0.55% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 510, and the next - month basis is 470. The spot price is 9200 [3]. - **Precious Metals**: - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, with a decrease of - 0.67% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 3.19, and the next - month basis is - 6.21. The spot price is 995.98 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 1.03%, with a decrease of - 1.09% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 227, and the next - month basis is - 180. The spot price is 17292 [3]. - **Black Industry**: - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 2.30%, with a decrease of - 0.51% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 72, and the next - month basis is 42. The spot price is 3200 [3]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.76%, with a decrease of - 0.24% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 25, and the next - month basis is - 33. The spot price is 3280 [3]. - Iron Ore (I): The main contract basis rate is 1.62%, with a decrease of - 3.36 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 13.2, and the next - month basis is 42.7. The spot price is 830.2 [3]. - Coke: The main contract basis rate is - 7.16%, with an increase of 1.35% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 126.0, and the next - month basis is - 211.0. The spot price is 1635 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 0.90%, with an increase of 1.42% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 17.5, and the next - month basis is - 121.0. The spot price is 1247.5 [3]. - Steam Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is - 5.29%, with an increase of 0.50% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 42.4, and the next - month basis is - 42.4. The spot price is 759.0 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.71%, with an increase of 2.32% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 282, and the next - month basis is - 382. The spot price is 5700 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is - 4.41%, with an increase of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 284, and the next - month basis is - 342. The spot price is 6150 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract basis rate is 0.42%, with an increase of 1.38% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 60, and the next - month basis is 90. The spot price is 14450 [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Soybeans: The main contract basis rate is - 4.91%, with a decrease of - 0.37% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 227, and the next - month basis is - 271. The spot price is 4400 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 8.06%, with a decrease of - 0.74% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 238, and the next - month basis is 160. The spot price is 3190 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 9.64%, with a decrease of - 0.23% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 226, and the next - month basis is 148. The spot price is 2570 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 3.75%, with an increase of 0.59% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 382, and the next - month basis is 324. The spot price is 8970 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 5.18%, with a decrease of - 0.20% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 510, and the next - month basis is 612. The spot price is 10350 [3]. - Peanuts (PK): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, with a decrease of - 1.0% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 832, and the next - month basis is 570. The spot price is 9000 [3]. - Palm Oil: The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, with a decrease of - 0.05% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 36, and the next - month basis is 40. The spot price is 9610 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 4.88%, with a decrease of - 0.08% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 135, and the next - month basis is 125. The spot price is 2900 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 1.01%, with no change compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 24, and the next - month basis is - 5. The spot price is 2400 [3]. - Apples (AP): The main contract basis rate is 14.54%, with a decrease of - 184 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 39, and the next - month basis is - 1446. The spot price is 8500 [3]. - Eggs (JD): The main contract basis rate is - 2.73%, with a decrease of - 312 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 617, and the next - month basis is - 519. The spot price is 3200 [3]. - Hogs (LH): The main contract basis rate is - 3.41%, with a decrease of - 0.10% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 335, and the next - month basis is - 3040. The spot price is 9500 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.59%, with an increase of 1200 compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 15420, and the next - month basis is 15900. The spot price is 16745 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 0.31%, with a decrease of - 0.63% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 17, and the next - month basis is - 5. The spot price is 5480 [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is 2.12%, with an increase of 1.20% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 313, and the next - month basis is 408. The spot price is 3270 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 1.05%, with an increase of 0.16% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 2028, and the next - month basis is 159. The spot price is 5005 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 1.45%, with a decrease of - 0.05% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 8, and the next - month basis is 2. The spot price is 6680 [3]. - Polypropylene: The main contract basis rate is 3.07%, with a decrease of - 0.55% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 280, and the next - month basis is 996. The spot price is 9400 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 1.53%, with an increase of 2.57% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 154, and the next - month basis is 1150. The spot price is 10200 [3]. - Short - staple Fiber: The main contract basis rate is - 1.33%, with a decrease of - 1.21% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 132, and the next - month basis is - 82. The spot price is 8150 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 1.52%, with an increase of 1.92% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 133, and the next - month basis is 268. The spot price is 8900 [3]. - PVC: The main contract basis rate is - 2.30%, with a decrease of - 0.85% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 130, and the next - month basis is - 246. The spot price is 5520 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.97%, with a decrease of - 0.18% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 205, and the next - month basis is - 160. The spot price is 16300 [3]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is 1.72%, with a decrease of - 0.21% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 235, and the next - month basis is - 30. The spot price is 13870 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 1.63%, with a decrease of - 0.02% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 20, and the next - month basis is - 103. The spot price is 1361 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.80%, with a decrease of - 0.64% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 15, and the next - month basis is - 79. The spot price is 1860 [3]. - Bottle Chips (PR): The main contract basis rate is 3.84%, with an increase of 1.47% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 8104, and the next - month basis is 469. The spot price is 8415 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 1.58%, with an increase of 1.32% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 82, and the next - month basis is - 5. The spot price is 5238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 2.93%, with an increase of 3.77% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 21.5, and the next - month basis is 28.3. The spot price is 711.6 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 9.95%, with an increase of 0.51% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 437, and the next - month basis is 821. The spot price is 4830 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 4.69%, with a decrease of - 1.74% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is - 213, and the next - month basis is 60. The spot price is 4330 [3]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 9.72%, with a decrease of - 6.1% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 492, and the next - month basis is 929. The spot price is 5558 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 10.04%, with an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 1590, and the next - month basis is 657. The spot price is 7198 [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 1.85%, with a decrease of - 0.11% compared to the previous day. The current - month basis is 24.3, and the next - month basis is 41.7. The spot price is 4477.5 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is 0.71%, with a decrease of - 0.34
油厂库存小幅上升,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 05:17
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn industries is cautiously bullish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, although Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, if there are unexpected issues with future arrivals, the domestic market may face a temporary supply shortage. Supported by cost and US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting, future arrivals, and macro - events [2] - For the corn market, the current inventory of deep - processing enterprises is still low, and they tend to raise prices to promote purchases, which further supports corn prices. Feed enterprises are less willing to accept high - priced corn and prefer substitutes. The corn price at northern ports remains firm. With good wheat auction results and potential increases in auction volume, along with rumors of rice auctions, the overall corn price is expected to remain strong [4][5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data 粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2952 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.68%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2344 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 318, down 10 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 228, down 30; in Guangdong, it was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 338, unchanged; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2370 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM05 + 26, down 5 [1] - News: On March 25, Agroconsult reported that Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 184.7 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, a 0.9% increase from the early - March forecast [1] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2376 yuan/ton, unchanged (0.00%); the corn starch 2605 contract was 2765 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.07%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C05 + 14, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS05 + 135, down 2 [3] - News: On March 25, it was reported that the US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 planting intention report at 0:00 on April 1. Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to be 85.549 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres and the USDA's forecast of 85 million acres. The expected US corn planting area in 2026 is 94.371 million acres, lower than 2025 but slightly higher than the 2026 outlook forum prediction [3] Group 4: Market Analysis 粕类 - Downstream oil mill inventories are being continuously consumed. Despite the Brazilian soybean harvest, potential supply shortages may occur if there are problems with future arrivals. Domestic soybean meal prices are likely to be supported by cost and US soybeans [2] Corn - Deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories and raise prices to purchase, supporting corn prices. Feed enterprises prefer substitutes. Corn prices at northern ports are firm. Wheat auctions are doing well, and future auction volumes may increase. The overall corn market supply is tight, and prices are expected to remain strong [4][5] Group 5: Strategies - For both the粕类 and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bullish [3][6]